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April 1-3 Late Season Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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Well once again, my forecast for my friend in northern Passaic may be toast. I told her 3-6... and the GFS laughs at me. :arrowhead:

This is what we get when we turn our backs on climo. When it looks like thread the needle type stuff 3 days out in late MArch and April we need to be able to ignore the snow weenie in us all and side with climo! :lightning:

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This is what we get when we turn our backs on climo. When it looks like thread the needle type stuff 3 days out in late MArch and April we need to be able to ignore the snow weenie in us all and side with climo! :lightning:

Well I still have 0.0-Trace for TTN, I think that forecast looks fine ;)

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First post, but I have spent a lot time here over the winter reading everyone's posts. You guys do a great job! Anyone have any thoughts on the weather for the Phillies game tomorrow at 1?

Brisk and chilly, a stray rain or snow shower. (probably rain)

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The 12z gfs is crazy.. Any news on the diagnostics of this run for any errors?

From HPC:

...CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF NAM AND GFS

THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM REGIONAL HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY

OFFSHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE...AND SLOWER TO BOMB OUT THE

CYCLONE. THE NAM...GFS...GEM REGIONAL...AND UKMET ARE ALL SLOWER

THAN THE 00Z/31 ECMWF TO PHASE THE ENERGY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST

COAST INTO THE INITIAL WAVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH

DELAYS THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE AND THE CHANCE FOR A MID LEVEL

CIRCULATION TO CLOSE OFF AND HOVER NEAR LONG ISLAND. THE 00Z/31

ECENS MEAN WAS ALSO SKEWED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE SHEARED

SOLUTIONS...AND PERHAPS MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE 00Z/31 UKMET

BROKE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE SLOWER...INTENSE SOLUTION IT HAD

LOCKED ONTO FOR MANY DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL RECOMMEND A

SOLUTION ALONG THE LINES OF NEW DETERMINISTIC RUNS...WITH A

COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MASS FIELDS SERVING MOST

PURPOSES OVER THE NORTHEAST. INTERESTINGLY...THIS MORE OFFSHORE

SOLUTION WAS THE PREDOMINATE ONE OUT AT DAY 5...AND AS OFTEN

HAPPENS...THE DAY 3 CONSENSUS WAS THE ODD GROUPING OUT...MOST

LIKELY OWING TO THE SPARSE DATA SAMPLING OF THE CRITICAL ENERGY

OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC.

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As of 2 PM real wx service is cancelling the Level 3 Alert! Latest guidance has come in and now keeps the system weak and east and does not deepen the system until it is up near or close to the state of Maine. Outside of extreme SNE most areas will end up seeing very light precipitation in the form of rain showers and if cold enough snowshowers.

Please disregard the previous map that was issued.

Not one to make excuses on a busted forecast but this one the models truly have performed horrible.

Its ironic that mother nature gets the very first APRIL FOOLS day joke in!

Again, we apologize for not seeing this sooner but we are not going to continue something guidance does not support!

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I thought his sig had 13" on 12/26, but whatever...

My bad, you're right... missed that. :arrowhead:

Yeah, he shouldn't complain ;)

EKO's officially had 36.4", but in increments no bigger than 4.5". In fact, I think that except for one other event, its all been in increments of less than 3". :axe:

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