LVblizzard Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 They actually raised amounts in the Lehigh Valley? Not sure what they're seeing...I think we see 1-3" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Now the GFS gives us nothing...lol, f--k this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Now the GFS gives us nothing...lol, f--k this winter. lol.. I agree. Its been a d*** tease all season! Bring on the heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well once again, my forecast for my friend in northern Passaic may be toast. I told her 3-6... and the GFS laughs at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well once again, my forecast for my friend in northern Passaic may be toast. I told her 3-6... and the GFS laughs at me. This is what we get when we turn our backs on climo. When it looks like thread the needle type stuff 3 days out in late MArch and April we need to be able to ignore the snow weenie in us all and side with climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This is what we get when we turn our backs on climo. When it looks like thread the needle type stuff 3 days out in late MArch and April we need to be able to ignore the snow weenie in us all and side with climo! Well I still have 0.0-Trace for TTN, I think that forecast looks fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Now the GFS gives us nothing...lol, f--k this winter. WTF happened? I'm at work and can't see the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 That's their 3rd update from yesterday PM,as you probably know (maybe not others )that's another Bump up... I noticed and then you have HPC which just issued this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sglickpa Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 First post, but I have spent a lot time here over the winter reading everyone's posts. You guys do a great job! Anyone have any thoughts on the weather for the Phillies game tomorrow at 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 My Advice,fwiw,...don't even look at a model...watch what's actually happening...Now,newer HPC plot does lower QPF...what a roller coaster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lol.. I agree. Its been a d*** tease all season! Bring on the heat The 12z gfs is crazy.. Any news on the diagnostics of this run for any errors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 First post, but I have spent a lot time here over the winter reading everyone's posts. You guys do a great job! Anyone have any thoughts on the weather for the Phillies game tomorrow at 1? Brisk and chilly, a stray rain or snow shower. (probably rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The 12z gfs is crazy.. Any news on the diagnostics of this run for any errors? From HPC: ...CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1... PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF NAM AND GFS THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM REGIONAL HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE...AND SLOWER TO BOMB OUT THE CYCLONE. THE NAM...GFS...GEM REGIONAL...AND UKMET ARE ALL SLOWER THAN THE 00Z/31 ECMWF TO PHASE THE ENERGY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE INITIAL WAVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH DELAYS THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE AND THE CHANCE FOR A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO CLOSE OFF AND HOVER NEAR LONG ISLAND. THE 00Z/31 ECENS MEAN WAS ALSO SKEWED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE SHEARED SOLUTIONS...AND PERHAPS MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE 00Z/31 UKMET BROKE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE SLOWER...INTENSE SOLUTION IT HAD LOCKED ONTO FOR MANY DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL RECOMMEND A SOLUTION ALONG THE LINES OF NEW DETERMINISTIC RUNS...WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MASS FIELDS SERVING MOST PURPOSES OVER THE NORTHEAST. INTERESTINGLY...THIS MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION WAS THE PREDOMINATE ONE OUT AT DAY 5...AND AS OFTEN HAPPENS...THE DAY 3 CONSENSUS WAS THE ODD GROUPING OUT...MOST LIKELY OWING TO THE SPARSE DATA SAMPLING OF THE CRITICAL ENERGY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 find the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 As of 2 PM real wx service is cancelling the Level 3 Alert! Latest guidance has come in and now keeps the system weak and east and does not deepen the system until it is up near or close to the state of Maine. Outside of extreme SNE most areas will end up seeing very light precipitation in the form of rain showers and if cold enough snowshowers. Please disregard the previous map that was issued. Not one to make excuses on a busted forecast but this one the models truly have performed horrible. Its ironic that mother nature gets the very first APRIL FOOLS day joke in! Again, we apologize for not seeing this sooner but we are not going to continue something guidance does not support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lol.. I agree. Its been a d*** tease all season! Bring on the heat wow man I feel for ya. Only 65 inches? That must be rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 wow man I feel for ya. Only 65 inches? That must be rough. His biggest storm was only 7" so give him a little leeway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 His biggest storm was only 7" so give him a little leeway I thought his sig had 13" on 12/26, but whatever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I thought his sig had 13" on 12/26, but whatever... My bad, you're right... missed that. Yeah, he shouldn't complain EKO's officially had 36.4", but in increments no bigger than 4.5". In fact, I think that except for one other event, its all been in increments of less than 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 wow man I feel for ya. Only 65 inches? That must be rough. 65" isnt a big deal when you avg 50-55".. Not saying it was a bad winter but it has happened on more then one occasion this season where mother nature pulled a fast one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmH56ypfFeA From SouthlandWx (FTW)FWIW, the Euro crapped the bed on this one too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Obs for tonight's event can go here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.