NaoPos Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12Z GFS is a bit weaker and colder. Still rain along I-95, though. Almost snow at ABE... maybe a mix back and forth depending on intensity. Mainly snow MPO. Looks like maybe some backside snowm on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looks like maybe some backside snowm on this run? Flurries at best I would think. Only a few hundredths after 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GFS ensembles are west and stronger (and hence warmer)... much closer to the OP than 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ummm that is a pattern changer!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This might be something that is more appropriate for the medium range thread. Ummm that is a pattern changer!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This might be something that is more appropriate for the medium range thread. Yeah, I thought that after I posted it I couldn't resist. It's beauty though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GFS ensembles are west and stronger (and hence warmer)... much closer to the OP than 0Z. are you sure you looked at the 12z gfs ensembles? certainly look better than the 6z or 0 z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 are you sure you looked at the 12z gfs ensembles? certainly look better than the 6z or 0 z Yea I didn't think they looked that bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 FRI 00Z 01-APR 2.0 0.1 1007 98 89 0.08 545 539 FRI 06Z 01-APR 1.5 0.5 1001 98 91 0.16 541 540 FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.0 -1.2 996 97 95 0.32 534 538 FRI 18Z 01-APR 2.0 -4.7 995 90 86 0.42 529 534 12 Z ECM @ ABE ..Colder then the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 are you sure you looked at the 12z gfs ensembles? certainly look better than the 6z or 0 z Only to the untrained eye... Here's the 12Z prog of the previous 12-hour QPF and the 850 temps. Compare to the 0Z prog for the same time. Note how much further west the 0C 850 line moved. Also compare to the OP at the same time... The ensembles are only slightly cooler and further east than the OP now. OK, now we'll look at the 48 hour ensemble... previous 12 hour QPF, instantaneous 850 temps: Now compare that to the 0Z ensemble at the same time: The current ensemble is considerably warmer and further west. Finally, compare to the op: Much closer to the op than it was before. So as I said, the ensemble is much closer to the OP... stronger and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 For those in AVP FRI 06Z 01-APR 0.6 -0.8 1003 97 90 0.13 540 538 FRI 12Z 01-APR 0.4 -2.0 998 97 94 0.26 534 536 FRI 18Z 01-APR 0.8 -4.8 996 91 87 0.44 530 533 SAT 00Z 02-APR 0.7 -3.7 998 96 96 0.23 530 532 SAT 06Z 02-APR -0.4 -3.8 999 92 87 0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 EC implies the potential for 1-2" of wraparound snow for I-95. The met in me wants to scream "well we know how often that works out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 EC implies the potential for 1-2" of wraparound snow for I-95. The met in me wants to scream "well we know how often that works out" I know, right. The January 26th system did it like a pro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I know, right. The January 26th system did it like a pro though. I don't know if I'd really call that wraparound in the classic sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I do think that those folks that are north and west of philly and have decent elevation will see a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 beautiful in january...cold rain in april hopefully nam wins out as its much drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 There were a couple decent trends on the GFS/EC. Need that to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ355 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2011...HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 .LOW PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF A SPRING NOREASTER MOVING UP ALONGTHE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-310900- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0007.110401T0200Z-110401T1600Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 355 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY ROADS AND DEGRADED TRAVEL...ALONG WITH ISOLATED DOWNED TREE LIMBS OR TREES AND RESULTANT ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...OCCASIONALLY ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 BGM with a watch now for all of its NEPA zones...just says >7" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 euro is showing .75-1 for the noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Not sure I am buying over 5 inches here. Still, the drive to NW NJ Friday early AM will be a blast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 1-3 for me via State College, but 5 miles away in Lansford 5-9 via Mt Holly. Quite a difference between the two offices in a 5 mile spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 1-3 for me via State College, but 5 miles away in Lansford 5-9 via Mt Holly. Quite a difference between the two offices in a 5 mile spread. Last time around Berks county was included in the watch with lehigh...not this time around....still hoping for an advisory in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 18 Z GFS means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That's a pretty decent map...probably would cut back a bit across Berks and Chester...I tend to think this is a N & E of 476/PA Turnpike event in terms of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That's a pretty decent map...probably would cut back a bit across Berks and Chester...I tend to think this is a N & E of 476/PA Turnpike event in terms of snow... remember though, thats for tonights stuff also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 remember though, thats for tonights stuff also... They're forecasting rain south of 78... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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