atownwxwatcher Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I just said the EC is a torch not unlike the GFS, I didn't say everything the EC does this run is like the GFS. A big difference this run versus previous EC runs is that (for the first time I believe) the EC brings 850s several degrees above freezing right overtop of I-95. Actually 12 Z ECM had the 850s at 0 to +5 at 66 hrs over that region... then they crashed (at least the 6 hr increments i have) And I know Ray just explaining why its different from the GFS and earlier run at 12 Z ..i could have done the same thing for ABE etc just i saw TTN mentioned and figured i would just use that as a base instead of my area ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro doesn't intensify storm as rapidly and is a touch east with the final solution. Still too warm for snow along 95 verbatim except at perhaps the very, very end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The NAM is really on its own with wave #2...wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Once again, the talk is all about I-95. Now I know that this is generally a Philly sub-forum, but there are those of us who live well away from I-95 that follow the analysis here. What is the general consensus for well inland, and elevation areas to the north and west? Rain, snow, slop, or not much of anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Once again, the talk is all about I-95. Now I know that this is generally a Philly sub-forum, but there are those of us who live well away from I-95 that follow the analysis here. What is the general consensus for well inland, and elevation areas to the north and west? Rain, snow, slop, or not much of anything? If the GFS is right you are rain changing to wet snow. I would *think* a few inches can't be ruled out up your way...more in the Poconos (east of 476) than for you. FYI: 6z GFS just came in much faster, with the event starting Thursday midday/PM and not Thursday night...seems there are a lot of issues with the storm intensification and how/when it fires up in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Actually 12 Z ECM had the 850s at 0 to +5 at 66 hrs over that region... then they crashed (at least the 6 hr increments i have) And I know Ray just explaining why its different from the GFS and earlier run at 12 Z ..i could have done the same thing for ABE etc just i saw TTN mentioned and figured i would just use that as a base instead of my area ... do you always have to nit pick over everything? The point is its a rainstorm mainly, who cares if ther 850s are +5 or +105, its rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 anyways, the euro has 4-5 inches of rain the next 10 days for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm sick of these cold rains....bring me 90 and sunny any day over this junk! We'll go from cold and rainy to sunny and hot that seems to be the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Once again, the talk is all about I-95. Now I know that this is generally a Philly sub-forum, but there are those of us who live well away from I-95 that follow the analysis here. What is the general consensus for well inland, and elevation areas to the north and west? Rain, snow, slop, or not much of anything? The farther north you are, the better. It looks like the deformation band really starts cranking once you get north of Allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 anyways, the euro has 4-5 inches of rain the next 10 days for the region The euro will change the next run just like it has all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 what does everyone think of the winter storm watches issued for 5-10 inches for northern new jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 what does everyone think of the winter storm watches issued for 5-10 inches for northern new jersey Based on model trends and what happen last week with snow north of about I-78 in Jersey, they do stand the best shot a seeing accumulating snow again across this subforums region. North Jersey and the Poconos, make sense this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Once again, the talk is all about I-95. Now I know that this is generally a Philly sub-forum, but there are those of us who live well away from I-95 that follow the analysis here. What is the general consensus for well inland, and elevation areas to the north and west? Rain, snow, slop, or not much of anything? Sorry, IMBY'ness+laziness kicking in... plus general hoping on my part that I don't have to stay up Thursday night watching this thing Honestly, with the large model differences, I'm not sure what to think up there. Some snow seems likely... just not sure how much. BTW, no one seems to be mentioning the potential the GFS is now showing on Saturday morning... the trailing piece may be what finally gets accumulating snow to PHL metro. One thing I noted about all my April archive events is, with one exception, 1000-500 mb thicknesses were 534 DM or lower. The first two waves seem to have no hope of being that cold right now no matter what model you're looking at, at least in (I know, I know) PHL metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Thanks guys! I may play the warmista troll sometimes, but I really appreciate the quality analysis that is provided here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well the latest models sure do throw a wrench into our April snow party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 do you always have to nit pick over everything? The point is its a rainstorm mainly, who cares if ther 850s are +5 or +105, its rain. It'd probably be a steam storm if it was +105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Thanks guys! I may play the warmista troll sometimes, but I really appreciate the quality analysis that is provided here. That's OK, I think I do too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 BTW, no one seems to be mentioning the potential the GFS is now showing on Saturday morning... the trailing piece may be what finally gets accumulating snow to PHL metro. I mentioned this yesterday, but right now the GFS is farther north than the other models. The GGEM last night kept us dry, the NAM at 6z only brings <0.10" in. Onething though, it will be cold enough behind the main storm, so it's probably the best shot we have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I mentioned this yesterday, but right now the GFS is farther north than the other models. The GGEM last night kept us dry, the NAM at 6z only brings <0.10" in. Onething though, it will be cold enough behind the main storm, so it's probably the best shot we have right now. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM actuallt gives us snow Friday morning, despite the Coastal still going way OTS. Cold enough except for the surface, which is slightly warm (34° or so) at 48. By 51, however, the surface torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Tis a lost cause, my friends.The norlon thing looks more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Tis a lost cause, my friends.The norlon thing looks more interesting. You mean the upper level impulse sliding by? It's not really a norlun, at least not from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z NAM at 54 is almost identical to the 6z GFS at 66 regarding the upper-level thingy's timing/placement. NAM's 528 contour is closed off, GFS's is open but close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You mean the upper level impulse sliding by? It's not really a norlun, at least not from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 A norlun is a specific, unique type of upper-level phenomenon. This is just a ULL like the one that follows any other major storm. 3/2/09 for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 A norlun is a specific, unique type of upper-level phenomenon. This is just a ULL like the one that follows any other major storm. 3/2/09 for instance. Thank you for citing a very interesting example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM actuallt gives us snow Friday morning, despite the Coastal still going way OTS. Cold enough except for the surface, which is slightly warm (34° or so) at 48. By 51, however, the surface torches. It seems like the NAM is starting to lean toward the GFS. It'll be interesting to see if the GFS holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Pattern is still too progressive with the ridging out west allowing no chance for this area. Bring on the 60's and 70's b/c cold rain is about as fun as taxes! Of course I have opening day Phils tix which should be rather miserable inclining me to inibriate myself in order to numb the effects of the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Pattern is still too progressive with the ridging out west allowing no chance for this area. Bring on the 60's and 70's b/c cold rain is about as fun as taxes! Of course I have opening day Phils tix which should be rather miserable inclining me to inibriate myself in order to numb the effects of the weather. That is never advised. Oh and the 12z RGEM is in the sweet spot but the 850mb line runs N-S just west of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12Z GFS is a bit weaker and colder. Still rain along I-95, though. Almost snow at ABE... maybe a mix back and forth depending on intensity. Mainly snow MPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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