Thunder Road Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Since this is looking like a legit threat, can everyone save the images they've uploaded so far today, either to AMWX or Photobucket, so that those images will be there later on after the storm. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Heres the euro qpf. I cant separate the two storms because they are just to close to gether. So here is the accum precip for both storms. Now heres the accum for storm number 1 holmdel to natl park, nj to radnor pa to reading pa to wellsboro pa...south of there .25-.5...north of there .1-.25...so subtract that from this accum map and you get storm number 2 yellow 1-.75-2 dark purple 1.5-1.75 purple 1.25-1.5 lgt blue 1-1.25 green .75-1 white .5-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12 Z ECM means What a signal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18Z GFS is a tad faster and a tad warmer... just enough such that majority precip at TTN is rain. I think I'll take a nap now... got a feeling I'm not getting much sleep in the next few days no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Since this is looking like a legit threat, can everyone save the images they've uploaded so far today, either to AMWX or Photobucket, so that those images will be there later on after the storm. Thanks Fwiw any images I posted in this thread (except the first post) are saved and hosted from another site. I recommend others do the same. Helps out when we reanalyze after these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z gfs ensemble mean does not look too impressive, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z gfs ensemble mean does not look too impressive, fwiw. This MAY be because its coming amped more with this low .. Compare it to 48 @ 6 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yea wow it is really amped with the first system. Maybe a little surprise coming Wednesday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS still hitting us with that second piece of energy saturday afternoon. snow showers again sat.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Maybe the GFS is moving from a two-storm event to a one storm event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just posted this in the NYC thread 18 Z UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 nam is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Think this is certain threat to pound the northeast. I fear the Midwest "kicker" may cause this to scoot too far east and not bomb out until it's too late for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 nam is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM is inspiring no confidence in a late season snow blitz with its instance to show nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM is inspiring no confidence in a late season snow blitz with its instance to show nothing or confidence that it is starting to move in the direction of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Meanwhile, the 0z RGEM is farther west than the 12z GGEM for 00z Friday. Hr 48 it has a 998mb Low inland over Wilmington, NC. If the GGEM picks up where the RGEM left off, we're probably looking at more rain and less snow. Perfect balance to the NAM's OTS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 0z GFS says to re-open Camelback... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 0z GFS says to re-open Camelback... This could be your storm if the GFS is right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GFS actually syncs up with the RGEM, and is continuous/even farther west than 18z. Let's see how the GGEM, UKIE and EURO react tonight. Maybe they keep trending west until it's too far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 UKIE goes just east of LI, prob. better for you PHL/RDG/TTN guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 0Z GFS is a torch and deluge for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 0Z GFS is a torch and deluge for I-95. Just twist that daggar in all the weenie's hearts, Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just twist that daggar in all the weenie's hearts, Ray. It seems like the whole run was noticeably warmer, even the "event" tomorrow night. Like someone added 2 or 3 degrees to everything thru 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GFS means are east of the OP GGEM looks like one wave from 36-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 00z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 To my eyes it would appear almost as what the UKMET and GGEM are doing differently from the GFS ..is that they all appear to be making this a one wave scenario or one large storm.. To show what i mean look at the prior frames which are 30-42.. This appears at least to me to be remotely different from what the GFS is suggesting....I am not sure whether the ECM will follow the same direction but the foreign models essentially seem to be of the same likeness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 EC is torch warm not unlike the GFS, mostly rain at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 ECM may in fact be warmer at TTN...but the ECM is actually COLDER at the surface during the heavier precip at TTN..then the GFS.. FRI 00Z 01-APR 3.4 2.6 1004 96 76 0.20 547 544 FRI 06Z 01-APR 2.4 2.0 997 97 94 0.22 541 544 FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.9 -3.5 994 95 84 0.23 532 536 GFS FRI 00Z 01-APR 3.8 2.2 1002 99 98 0.40 548 546 FRI 06Z 01-APR 2.6 4.3 988 98 94 1.22 539 549 The difference between the GFS and the ECM is : The ECM once again can not stay consistent and has gone back to developing the system too late for this area which cuts down on the precipitation which also does not allow the dynamics from the system to effect this region. Even still it manages to be colder then the GFS is for TTN... Also at 60 hrs the GFS is on top of Central LI where as the ECM is just to the E of LI ... So not so much like the GFS ....at all... I do agree with the assessment of the final outcome via VERBATIM ECM 00z but ..lack of consistency brings it into question! Same as GFS..Much better to stick with the means at this point and time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 ECM may in fact be warmer at TTN...but the ECM is actually COLDER at the surface during the heavier precip at TTN..then the GFS.. FRI 00Z 01-APR 3.4 2.6 1004 96 76 0.20 547 544 FRI 06Z 01-APR 2.4 2.0 997 97 94 0.22 541 544 FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.9 -3.5 994 95 84 0.23 532 536 GFS FRI 00Z 01-APR 3.8 2.2 1002 99 98 0.40 548 546 FRI 06Z 01-APR 2.6 4.3 988 98 94 1.22 539 549 The difference between the GFS and the ECM is : The ECM once again can not stay consistent and has gone back to developing the system too late for this area which cuts down on the precipitation which also does not allow the dynamics from the system to effect this region. Even still it manages to be colder then the GFS is for TTN... Also at 60 hrs the GFS is on top of Central LI where as the ECM is just to the E of LI ... So not so much like the GFS ....at all... I do agree with the assessment of the final outcome via VERBATIM ECM 00z but ..lack of consistency brings it into question! Same as GFS..Much better to stick with the means at this point and time! I just said the EC is a torch not unlike the GFS, I didn't say everything the EC does this run is like the GFS. A big difference this run versus previous EC runs is that (for the first time I believe) the EC brings 850s several degrees above freezing right overtop of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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