Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Heck of a signal coming from the GFS today. A little far out but that would be one powerful Nor'easter! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_288m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 DT already hyping it up too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Well, fwiw the GFS has been relatively consistent with the idea of a deep coastal storm for the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mville2005 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Figures...it's Opening Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Well, fwiw the GFS has been relatively consistent with the idea of a deep coastal storm for the past few runs. and Prom, ha. Although I could live with a postponement for an April blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 This thread is a tad premature, but in any event it seems like there will be multiple oppurtunties for snow in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Just for the record, I didn't make any mention of snow or that this was going to a snowstorm...just a signal for a potent coastal storm. Now with that said, maybe this is the event HM had been honking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 An old rule of thumb is that probalities are good that there will be a nor'easter just as the NAO comes out of a big dip. Plus the MJO will be heading into phase 7 HM may be the modern day Nostradamus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 25, 2011 Author Share Posted March 25, 2011 Clearly a warm system on this run, but still a potent spring storm looks to be threatening in the first few days of April. Big coastal powerhouse still showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 However..it is now bringing this system further to the north... It then has a follow up low then come up the coast at 168. Over all looks like a pretty strange evolution and probably not sure what to do with all the S/Ws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 As far as snow goes, I would think 3/30 would be more likely than 4/2-3... the GFS and EC both have the NAO flipping from negative to positive around 3/30, but its steady positive by 4/2-3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Interesting GFS means compared to the Operational run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Interesting GFS means compared to the Operational run... there are deff a good amount of members that are pretty warm and hold onto the primary to long on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 there are deff a good amount of members that are pretty warm and hold onto the primary to long on the mean. Only looking for a Spring Nor'Ester out of this Heavy Rains & Winds would do me just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 UKMET looks to have one HECK of a storm brewing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 GGEM looks south and east OTS... So at least in the operational runs tonight of the GFS/GGEM/UKMET we have a variety of solutions on the table.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 00z NOGAPS appears to be on the side of a stronger area of low pressure moving up the coast as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 LOL at the UK...category 1-2 strength LP heading for Harrisburg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Well this system looks way interesting on the 00z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.4 -0.5 1003 94 100 0.42 543 541 FRI 18Z 01-APR 0.9 -3.2 990 90 91 0.81 533 542 SAT 00Z 02-APR 0.7 -4.8 988 90 95 0.33 526 535 SAT 06Z 02-APR 0.4 -5.0 991 84 91 0.11 527 534 The above is for ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.4 -0.5 1003 94 100 0.42 543 541 FRI 18Z 01-APR 0.9 -3.2 990 90 91 0.81 533 542 SAT 00Z 02-APR 0.7 -4.8 988 90 95 0.33 526 535 SAT 06Z 02-APR 0.4 -5.0 991 84 91 0.11 527 534 The above is for ABE Aaaah YA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 the Euro would be a close call on rain/snow even into Philly...the 850 line hangs near the city...will be above freezing at the surface though. Could be a lot like last Wednesday's crapfest at least regarding Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 UKMET still going with a Super Storm @ 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The UKMET would be a massive rainstorm, with a massive dryslot to the east of low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12 Z NOGAPS still going with a large storm system across the east... 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The UKMET has a bias of overphasing storm systems. I would use it with extreme caution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12 Z GGEM now has a 994 mb low just off the coast of NNJ Last night this system was well OTS on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I can see a storm system sliding up the coast/coastal plain. The NAO looks be sliding positive in this period. This large system could mean the pattern shifts and moves the warmth into the East next week. Whether or not snow occurs it is too early to tell. If this is the last dose of winter, however, I will be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Apparently the ECM has lost this system... or sends it OTS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Apparently the ECM has lost this system... or sends it OTS... the 12z euro run is a lot faster/weaker with the northern stream energy. Which causes deamplification and less digging and pulling back of the baroclini zone which is why is scoots out to sea. While the 0z had a slower more potent northern stream wave that allowed it dig deeper into the gom, and pull the baroclinic zone closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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