free_man Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Not sure what you're saying..but i absolutely came up with AWT..and you won't find any disagreement with that. i did not come up with lalalala lick it up..That was the great ones..Craig Carton others were arrogantly but jokingly saying "as we thought", "as we thought all along" , " as we have been thinking since the get-go" before you...not sure who abbreviated it first, I guess. who cares. lick it up? lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Not to worry, Nam will cave in 12hrs out like the rest of this winter for you guys Well it has scored a few coups this winter....also, it does have a few friends with it on the OTS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 others were arrogantly but jokingly saying "as we thought", "as we thought all along" , " as we have been thinking since the get-go" before you...not sure who abbreviated it first, I guess. who cares. lick it up? lmao Nah..that was me saying that. i started it last summer. No biggie..it doesn't matter. Kiss...Lick It up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well it has scored a few coups this winter....also, it does have a few friends with it on the OTS track. Yeah, Very few, There is a better chance it comes north then whiff at this time of year, Not for me but most in SNE, It has no friends.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 9z eta is a sw ct jackpot, what a nightmare, this cant be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 others were arrogantly but jokingly saying "as we thought", "as we thought all along" , " as we have been thinking since the get-go" before you...not sure who abbreviated it first, I guess. who cares. lick it up? lmao That was the great Paul Stanley, from KISS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 That was the great Paul Stanley, from KISS. thank you mr. moments in rock history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 nam from 36 to 42 is just out to lunch sorry, precip gets shunted south and leaves most of sne totally out of the game, not going to happen like that, no how no way. It may not be correct, but it is not out to lunch - as you say. There are physics to that madness and those are plausible. Whether they succeed or not remains to be seen. What happens there is not as uncommon as one may think with coastal deepening. When it does the system contracts, and this means pinching off the WAA that is producing those shield snows (that light to moderate envelopement at 36 hours). Once that happens the QPF goes poof. The lower to middle tropospheric cyclogenesis S of the area robs the WAA overrunning at 36 hours. Sorry, it may not be what people holding onto snow lust want to hear or see, but it is not impossible for that to play out that way. Having said that, all hope is not lost, either. A significant part of the dynamics of the total system have not even come on shore out W just yet... Should streak dynamics come in stronger, there will be more lead S/W ridging response however subtle, and that would cause local system morphology over previoius depictions by the time it all passes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It may not be correct, but it is not out to lunch - as you say. There are physics to that madness and those are plausible. Whether they succeed or not remains to be seen. What happens there is not as uncommon as one may think with coastal deepening. When it does the system contracts, and this means pinching off the WAA that is producing those shield snows (that light to moderate envelopement at 36 hours). Once that happens the QPF goes poof. The lower to middle tropospheric cyclogenesis S of the area robs the WAA overrunning at 36 hours. Sorry, it may not be what people holding onto snow lust want to hear or see, but it is not impossible for that to play out that way. Having said that, all hope is not lost, either. A significant part of the dynamics of the total system have not even come on shore out W just yet... Should streak dynamics come in stronger, there will be more lead S/W ridging response however subtle, and that would cause local system morphology over previoius depictions by the time it all passes through. I am saying its wrong for far different reasons than you might expect, hopefully I am all rain and 40 while you and ski country get buried, I am praying for all of you! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 From Mt Hollys disco, seems like the NAMs current forecast has not verified..too far south and too cold JUST WANTED TO ADD A QUICK AND DIRTY VERIFICATION OF WHICH MODEL IS HANDLING OUR UPCOMING SYSTEM THE BEST THROUGH ITS 12HR FORECAST. OVERALL ITS THE ECMWF. THE NAM'S SFC LOW FCST POSN IS TOO FAR SOUTH AND ITS TOO COLD, IT HAS INFERRED FREEZING RAIN AS A PTYPE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S IN SOUTH DAKOTA. CONVERSELY THE GFS HAD A DECENT PTYPE AND SFC LOW VERIFICATION, BUT ITS QPF AXIS VERIFIED TOO FAR TO THE SW IN THE OH VALLEY. BOTH CANADIAN MODELS PUT THE SFC LOW TOO DEEP INTO THE COLD AIR. WE'LL SEE HOW THE MODELS INITIALIZE OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS Good news!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Add it here: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=awt LOL..by yours truly..hopefully it's becoming widespread all over the net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm pulling for the day 14/15 interior crushing on the 6Z GFS. That's the day I will be driving home from FL via DC. This pattern has many opportunities it seems. I am saying its wrong for far different reasons than you might expect, hopefully I am all rain and 40 while you and ski country get buried, I am praying for all of you! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 what is your call right now? nice call yesterday on the BOS snow. I'm going to wait until the rest of the models come in. I think I'll see some snow, but the lack of agreement is a little worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm going to wait until the rest of the models come in. I think I'll see some snow, but the lack of agreement is a little worrisome. feeling better at least for Mt. Tolland Glacier N.P.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 RGEM has come north....pretty solid hit for CT and up to the pike its over a half inch of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 feeling better at least for Mt. Tolland Glacier N.P.? He looks like he's in a good spot for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 RGEM has come north....pretty solid hit for CT and up to the pike its over a half inch of qpf. That's a nice track, just need it to come a bit more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 That's a nice track, just need it to come a bit more north. Nice bump north!! ASFT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 That's a nice track, just need it to come a bit more north. I think it will. Even if I were Hunchback Dave i'd feel pretty good about decent snows. These things love to come north in the final 18-24 hrs. Rest easy and stay thirsty my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 He looks like he's in a good spot for now. well that's good considering im down the road from him haha. glacier's slightly north of here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Paltry modeled qpf aside this looks pretty much an all snow deal for me, Dave, Moneypit etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Mt Holly had a nice breakdown on model verification. The NAM just is not handling the whole situation well, for now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 BOX tossed the GFS solution and went with the NAM/ECM though as of 00z. Hmmm. Mt Holly had a nice breakdown on model verification. The NAM just is not handling the whole situation well, for now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Ditto on OKX. BOX tossed the GFS solution and went with the NAM/ECM though as of 00z. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 BOX tossed the GFS solution and went with the NAM/ECM though as of 00z. Hmmm. NAM and Euro wre world's apart. NAM was suppressed..Euro brought snow north of pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 rgem looks like a nice compromise between the nam and euro, expect one or two more bumps north over the next 24 hrs, ASFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS brings snow even north of me here this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS brings snow even north of me here this run... Yeah it's a little colder but further north with the mid level frontogenesis it seems. It actually tries to dryslot srn CT near 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 gfs torches the bl over ct before sagging south at 42, rain for thesouth coast, mixing and ds throughout CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 More of a widespread hit into SNH and ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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