Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 trend north has begun, euro made a jump, 6z gfs way north, by tonight thankfully it will be all rain down here and ski country can have there snow, its too late, no disruptions in work thanks mother nature. rain, rain, rain. :sun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 06z GFS went north again. I don't think this is just a south of the Pike thing. The convection aspect that Justin brings up goes back to how I was saying these systems can be pretty dynamic. 06z ensembles are juicy too. The GFS actually imples boundary layer problems for some and dryslotting into CT. We still have a strong block so we have to be careful about the block in place because it could shove it southeast, but I would feel pretty good I think if I were north of the Pike too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 06z GFS went north again. I don't think this is just a south of the Pike thing. The convection aspect that Justin brings up goes back to how I was saying these systems can be pretty dynamic. 06z ensembles are juicy too. The GFS actually imples boundary layer problems for some and dryslotting into CT. We still have a strong block so we have to be careful about the block in place because it could shove it southeast, but I would feel pretty good I think if I were north of the Pike too. Amen. 40/33 with light offshore winds and full sun today, mid 50's easy down here, cant rule out a 60 somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 06z GFS went north again. I don't think this is just a south of the Pike thing. The convection aspect that Justin brings up goes back to how I was saying these systems can be pretty dynamic. 06z ensembles are juicy too. The GFS actually imples boundary layer problems for some and dryslotting into CT. We still have a strong block so we have to be careful about the block in place because it could shove it southeast, but I would feel pretty good I think if I were north of the Pike too. CT... N Ri jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Amen. 40/33 with light offshore winds and full sun today, mid 50's easy down here, cant rule out a 60 somewhere. You need 6" of blue snow to snap you out of it. I actually feel good about Kevin up to SW NH taking a pretty good hit with this storm. Hopefully a solid 3-6" or more for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 CT... N Ri jackpot? A true wet snowbomb for you, but I don't think you want it any farther north on the GFS. GFS verbatim would probably give you and Will similar amounts. I may have a little trouble at times if it doesn't come down hard, but I just want a few inches. GFS would imply rain for the south coast and is a little toasty for me..even your area gets precarious, but who knows..maybe it's just a hair too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 06z GFS went north again. I don't think this is just a south of the Pike thing. The convection aspect that Justin brings up goes back to how I was saying these systems can be pretty dynamic. 06z ensembles are juicy too. The GFS actually imples boundary layer problems for some and dryslotting into CT. We still have a strong block so we have to be careful about the block in place because it could shove it southeast, but I would feel pretty good I think if I were north of the Pike too. Throws us a bone up here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 A true wet snowbomb for you, but I don't think you want it any farther north on the GFS. GFS verbatim would probably give you and Will similar amounts. I may have a little trouble at times if it doesn't come down hard, but I just want a few inches. GFS would imply rain for the south coast and is a little toasty for me..even your area gets precarious, but who knows..maybe it's just a hair too far north. I agree, I think the wrf is off its rocker, I think the GFS makes another north jump and the nam caves. 4-8 for the pike north into ski country, Ray looks like he is in a great spot, maybe an inch or so in ct before the turn to rain and dryslot races in, north of 84. Down here its liquid, especially since it will be falling during the day tomorrow...wishcast not anything more, big ten days of work, no snow, no whammies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Throws us a bone up here as well. Well even the euro gave you some snow, but lets wait and see what the 12z runs do. You are pretty far north, but I still think you get some snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well even the euro gave you some snow, but lets wait and see what the 12z runs do. You are pretty far north, but I still think you get some snows. Ended up with 4" from yesterdays storm so if the next one does not work out, Eh,It will need to make a leap for me here for a decent event, Don't think that is going to happen though with the blocking north of here, More then likly i will end up on the northern fringe or be just to far north and see nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Ended up with 4" from yesterdays storm so if the next one does not work out, Eh,It will need to make a leap for me here for a decent event, Don't think that is going to happen though with the blocking north of here, More then likly i will end up on the northern fringe or be just to far north and see nothing I'm hoping for 1.5" to crack 80" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The tricky part is that there are 2 trends going on which oppose each other. Models have been trending stronger on the SE Canada trough/confluence and also more amplified and slower on the system coming out of the Plains. This leads to a little more separation between streams and a little less phasing as a whole, which leads me to think that eastern MA north of the Pike may not see much snow at all. Western MA is a different story since the cutoff along the northern edge of the precip shield should run WNW-ESE. 06z GFS went north again. I don't think this is just a south of the Pike thing. The convection aspect that Justin brings up goes back to how I was saying these systems can be pretty dynamic. 06z ensembles are juicy too. The GFS actually imples boundary layer problems for some and dryslotting into CT. We still have a strong block so we have to be careful about the block in place because it could shove it southeast, but I would feel pretty good I think if I were north of the Pike too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 The tricky part is that there are 2 trends going on which oppose each other. Models have been trending stronger on the SE Canada trough/confluence and also more amplified and slower on the system coming out of the Plains. This leads to a little more separation between streams and a little less phasing as a whole, which leads me to think that eastern MA north of the Pike may not see much snow at all. Western MA is a different story since the cutoff along the northern edge of the precip shield should run WNW-ESE. . Yeah it still has that wnw to ese gradient that we have to watch out for. I think the difference is that s/w in the OH valley coming in stronger, and that long arm of the PV extending east, lifting to the north a bit more. You can see this is you compare hr 48 on the 00z euro to hr 60 of the 12z euro from yesterday. That let the 00z run come a little more north, and is part of the reason for the GFS coming so far north imo. But yes, we have to watch out that the block doesn't create that wnw-ese cutoff. I've crusaded about how I hate those type of waves, because they always screw BOS up through ne mass. I remain mildly optimistic about getting precip up into here, but it's funny how the GFS gets places south of the pike, borderline. EC ensembles probs beefed up as well, but show a slight wnw-ese orientation. You were speaking last week about how this would come north and threaten, so good call man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I was hoping for spring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 I was hoping for spring weather. Gonna be awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 6Z RGEM came in more consolidated and further north, with the Midwest trough digging more and a piece of the trough over Quebec digging and phasing a little more with it. IMO it has a better handle on the system than either than NAM and GFS - it's a decent compromise between the two. It deepens the 850 mb low nicely as it moves ESE from just south of BUF to near the benchmark. It also has precip. remaining all snow for all of SNE, with the exception of a mix for extreme SW coastal CT, Block Island, the Cape, MVY and Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm hoping for 1.5" to crack 80" for the season. Yeah, You may have a better chance with the thurs storm then me, I think you will break 80", I broke the 90" barrier yesterday, I would not mind seeing 100" but it may be a stretch we will see in the next few weeks, We are going to start to run out of time after the 1st couple weeks of April..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 6Z RGEM came in more consolidated and further north, with the Midwest trough digging more and a piece of the trough over Quebec digging and phasing a little more with it. IMO it has a better handle on the system than either than NAM and GFS - it's a decent compromise between the two. It deepens the 850 mb low nicely as it moves ESE from just south of BUF to near the benchmark. That piece of the PV in Quebec that tries to phase in with it, is probably a good thing because it will lift up that arm of confluence that extends to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yeah, You may have a better chance with the thurs storm then me, I think you will break 80", I broke the 90" barrier yesterday, I would not mind seeing 100" but it may be a stretch we will see in the next few weeks, We are going to start to run out of time after the 1st couple weeks of April..... It's amazing how much of your snowfall has been retained OTG. CAD capital FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The tricky part is that there are 2 trends going on which oppose each other. Models have been trending stronger on the SE Canada trough/confluence and also more amplified and slower on the system coming out of the Plains. This leads to a little more separation between streams and a little less phasing as a whole, which leads me to think that eastern MA north of the Pike may not see much snow at all. Western MA is a different story since the cutoff along the northern edge of the precip shield should run WNW-ESE. Are you thinking similiar to yesterday ETA track? Do you like south of the Pike as jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Blizz, are your snowpiles still alive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yes. I think southern Berkshires/northern and central CT/NW RI will likely be the jackpot - somewhere in the 4-7" range with possible lollis up to around 10" in higher terrain. Yes, similar track to yesterday's ETA and 6z RGEM. However, more than usual uncertainty remains 30 hours prior to the beginning of the event. Are you thinking similiar to yesterday ETA track? Do you like south of the Pike as jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's amazing how much of your snowfall has been retained OTG. CAD capital FTW. Eric's snow retention is a little better then mine, I have probably about 12" in spots but more like a general 10" for the most part with a lot of receding snows along the house and west facing areas, I get influenced a little more by the atlantic in some cases and downsloping from the NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Blizz, are your snowpiles still alive? Not really..just remnants. Ryan was shocked yesterday when he saw how they had almost totally melted. The driveway area gets a lot of PM sun this time of year. North side of the street still has some good snowbanks and even snow in some yards before yesterdays snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yes. I think southern Berkshires/northern and central CT/NW RI will likely be the jackpot - somewhere in the 4-7" range with possible lollis up to around 10" in higher terrain. Yes, similar track to yesterday's ETA and 6z RGEM. However, more than usual uncertainty remains 30 hours prior to the beginning of the event. Yeah still a long way to go. Hopefully for the folks north of the Pike the Euro was onto something with the trend north last night. The qpf shield typically ends up farther north than modelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yeah still a long way to go. Hopefully for the folks north of the Pike the Euro was onto something with the trend north last night. The qpf shield typically ends up farther north than modelled Chances increasing of getting to your magic 100" by the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Chances increasing of getting to your magic 100" by the end of the season. Can you imagine if we somehow manage to get 5-10 out of this event? lol...nudity will be everywhere in my neighborhood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm thinking dusting to an inch around me. More than that will be gravy but not expecting much. We're basically 36 hours out, so hopefully a bit of a jump (40 miles or so?) happens Moosup FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Can you imagine if we somehow manage to get 5-10 out of this event? lol...nudity will be everywhere in my neighborhood This thing has a high surprise potential, one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 09z SREFs came north again with a nice hit up to the Pike now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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