Potential widespread snow event for Wednesday Night through Thursday.

[ORH_wxman]

For SNE, I would reckon January 2005 or December 1997 had incredible snow rates in certain locations.

Cape for 2005, 8" per hour? nearly 40" of snow there, that's once in a century event for the Cape!

I think Falmouth had 6" in an hour in January 2005, I don't recall 8" per hour though maybe I am not remembering properly. December 23, 1997 did have 8" per hour in some spots...still one of the biggest busts in the past 30 years. Still the only time I've seen pure snow with 45-50 dbz echoes and not contaminated with rain or sleet or some sort of melting aloft.

[Chris L]

I think Falmouth had 6" in an hour in January 2005, I don't recall 8" per hour though maybe I am not remembering properly. December 23, 1997 did have 8" per hour in some spots...still one of the biggest busts in the past 30 years. Still the only time I've seen pure snow with 45-50 dbz echoes and not contaminated with rain or sleet or some sort of melting aloft.

Serious about '97? wow, that gotta be a heck of a sight with 50 dbz and heavy snow. I never seen that before ever.

[Chris L]

Actually, Will, I was wrong for 2005, they had 8" in 75 minutes. so not quite an hour, but still that is crazy.

[ORH_wxman]

Serious about '97? wow, that gotta be a heck of a sight with 50 dbz and heavy snow. I never seen that before ever.

They were perfect dendrites...but huge. They were "Hooked" together and they were dry. They weren't golfball sized slushballs like you often see when you have radar echoes like that in snow.

[Arnold214]

Well I was using snow depth too as part of "Snow pack". A 38" depth was pretty awesome and the stretch of over 2 feet on the ground was very long. But I agree that keeping a 2" garbage pack around for 3 weeks isn't worth much...we did that in January 2004...no thanks on that month.

For here, Dec 26-Feb 2 saw over 6 feet of snow...so that stretch scores a ton of points. Obviously up where you are, it wasn't nearly as epic. S ME was kind of a mini-screw zone this winter. (I think I saw MaineJayhawk is still below avg for snow? Or near average?) I think you brought them bad luck, lol...Attlehole had a pretty awesome winter right when you left.

Well, I did split time between Maine and Attleboro...so it's kinda hard for me to give one true grade I guess. I was down in Attleboro for the Jan 12th deal...but even that ended in disappointment as it looked as though I'd witness the biggest snowstorm in my tenure in Attleboro. In the end, dry mid level air or whatever the deal was fooked with me and I barely eclipsed a foot.

[OKpowdah]

Recanting old snow storms?

lol I can just picture everyone from this thread completely drunk right now.

[ORH_wxman]

Recanting old snow storms?

lol I can just picture everyone from this thread completely drunk right now.

Don't worry, delta T season is just around the corner.

[Chris L]

That's gotta be one of the most craziest radars ever for snow. You would think its a Severe Thunderstorm if one hasn't look at the date... So it was more intense than the April '97 blizzard or December '92 nor'easter for those hours? that is extrremely impressive.

Was it better than the famous Jim Cantore December 1996 storm for rates per hour?

[ORH_wxman]

That's gotta be one of the most craziest radars ever for snow. You would think its a Severe Thunderstorm if one hasn't look at the date... So it was more intense than the April '97 blizzard or December '92 nor'easter for those hours? that is extrremely impressive.

Was it better than the famous Jim Cantore December 1996 storm for rates per hour?

It was easily better than the Cantore thundersnow storm for rates. The Dec '96 storm had 4" per hour which is insane in itself, but Dec '97 was off the charts there for a couple hours. The two-tier Cantore storm is still more fun me though since it dumped 26.3" of snow...but Dec '97 is the heaviest snow I've ever seen and holds a special spot in my memory.

[ORH_wxman]

Well, I did split time between Maine and Attleboro...so it's kinda hard for me to give one true grade I guess. I was down in Attleboro for the Jan 12th deal...but even that ended in disappointment as it looked as though I'd witness the biggest snowstorm in my tenure in Attleboro. In the end, dry mid level air or whatever the deal was fooked with me and I barely eclipsed a foot.

It sucks you never got an Attlehole jackpot in your time there...you came kind of close though in the Dec 2009 KU storm. You got like 15-16" in that? I think SE CT took the cake in that one with places getting 20" in that usual screw zone.

You'll probably get a pretty amazing winter up there in the next couple years...esp if this is a 3 years Nina which often occurs after a big Nino. You will be getting 12/16/07 storms left and right while we are rain (or ice in the interior). Probably a norlun or two that gives you a foot of snow while its sunny here too. That is norlun country there.

[Arnold214]

It sucks you never got an Attlehole jackpot in your time there...you came kind of close though in the Dec 2009 KU storm. You got like 15-16" in that? I think SE CT took the cake in that one with places getting 20" in that usual screw zone.

You'll probably get a pretty amazing winter up there in the next couple years...esp if this is a 3 years Nina which often occurs after a big Nino. You will be getting 12/16/07 storms left and right while we are rain (or ice in the interior). Probably a norlun or two that gives you a foot of snow while its sunny here too. That is norlun country there.

yeah, I had 15.8" in the Dec 2009 KU...good stuff altho as you said I was in the mini screwzone. That mega band came flying up from the south and ended up pivoting over western RI and SE CT...kinda flew by me without stopping.

You know, it's funny and kinda OT, out of all the big storms that could get talked about here, I chuckle b/c 12/13/07 and 12/16/07 seem to be the most heavily referenced in convo. lol.

[ORH_wxman]

yeah, I had 15.8" in the Dec 2009 KU...good stuff altho as you said I was in the mini screwzone. That mega band came flying up from the south and ended up pivoting over western RI and SE CT...kinda flew by me without stopping.

You know, it's funny and kinda OT, out of all the big storms that could get talked about here, I chuckle b/c 12/13/07 and 12/16/07 seem to be the most heavily referenced in convo. lol.

I think there were two elements to those storms that lead us to talk about them all the time...the 12/13/07 storm gets mentioned so much because all we did was talk about how the snow would come in like a white wall and totally screw the afternoon commute...and most larger entities did not heed that warning. The NWS definitely hammered that side of it. I remember you were one of them who did in an AFD. People didn't want to cancel anything because there wouldn't be any snow on the ground or falling during the morning when people had to go to work or school...but we knew it would destroy us shortly after. Forecast busts make people hesitant, but that was a very high confidence forecast...something that can get lost the public. High confidence vs low confidence forecasts.

The 12/16/07 storm we know was basically a marginal sleet or snow situation and we thought the sleet would dominate much earlier, but ended up being a huge snow bomb with 2-3" per hour and 2-3 hours off on the changeover busted us in 5-6" worth of accumulation. Luckily it was a Sunday morning. Both also helped us shape the playbook for typical SWFEs. They were definitely different storms individually as 12/16/07 was further W and a stronger punch from the SW, but both helped us forecast SWFEs better for the future.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I am aware what the stats are Will, but you should know, stats belie the experience. It's like one disappointment after another, then what, come in late and talk statistics to justify not being disappointed? Okay. I call a rose a rose.

But, It more than put a dent - the winter ended, and too many refused to get their heads around that. That's the point.

Now, sure - we may be dealt a good blow down the stretch.

Yeah it's cold.....but the moon is out and the roads are dry. Yet I have a WWA...so how is this different than January...I digress.....everyone busted and this is ugly but just like you said "get their heads around it" many here won't. I was way more pessimistic than most and I busted on this one. I talked about the RUC sucking and got ridiculed. I have heavy moonlight right now.

Disagree entirely. You just hammered stats. Well, the snow disappeared faster than it arrived, and that is the point for this forum - at least I thought. I was drilled for trying to tell people about the grading, and I used pure stats to do it, too. Not much reception there. People argued snow pack... hypocrisy.

You can't have it both ways. Winter ended unfavorably and the pattern changed in Feb unfavorably to do it, and some got some "lucky" snows to belie that truth. But the slow death began earlier than normal, at least for now...

Winter ended 45 days ago. As the Dr in Land of the Lost said, Matt Lauer can suck it. Spin it how you want whipee my spring peepers have ice on their wangs...it's a dud. We waited 3-4 weeks for a flizzard?

Like you wouldn't have, had you any to measure.

So says the guy dressing up his left hand like Sharon Stone.

Well I was using snow depth too as part of "Snow pack". A 38" depth was pretty awesome and the stretch of over 2 feet on the ground was very long. But I agree that keeping a 2" garbage pack around for 3 weeks isn't worth much...we did that in January 2004...no thanks on that month.

For here, Dec 26-Feb 2 saw over 6 feet of snow...so that stretch scores a ton of points. Obviously up where you are, it wasn't nearly as epic. S ME was kind of a mini-screw zone this winter. (I think I saw MaineJayhawk is still below avg for snow? Or near average?) I think you brought them bad luck, lol...Attlehole had a pretty awesome winter right when you left.

Attehole and Easton etc beat snowpack totals due to the cold. But it was also up there with 78 in terms of severity, there is no doubt about that. None. HOWEVER, in terms of pure snowy winters, 95-96 smokes this one.

Recanting old snow storms?

lol I can just picture everyone from this thread completely drunk right now.

I had 6 magners. Where's Kev and MRG to tell me there's no south trend.

TT has it right. Once the prance around Glee days of January ended reality struck. You couldn't forecast 1.5x the snowiest model and be right most of the time. It'll be 15 years before that happens again. (another 95/96-10/11). Those that weighed heavily to the GFS today got boned hard.

It was over at 12z today/before aside of the Goofus. The same model slammed by most, most of the time aside of today when it was winter warlock charlie sheen.

[Arnold214]

It's about to start snowing lightly at chez Ekster as some weak bands rotate westward.

My home is located at the blue dot to the NW of the GYX radar...just to the west if I-95.

[Arnold214]

I think there were two elements to those storms that lead us to talk about them all the time...the 12/13/07 storm gets mentioned so much because all we did was talk about how the snow would come in like a white wall and totally screw the afternoon commute...and most larger entities did not heed that warning. The NWS definitely hammered that side of it. I remember you were one of them who did in an AFD. People didn't want to cancel anything because there wouldn't be any snow on the ground or falling during the morning when people had to go to work or school...but we knew it would destroy us shortly after. Forecast busts make people hesitant, but that was a very high confidence forecast...something that can get lost the public. High confidence vs low confidence forecasts.

That was probably the best forecast storm at BOX in a long time. Amounts and timing were pinned nearly perfectly at least 24 hours in advance.

The 12/16/07 storm we know was basically a marginal sleet or snow situation and we thought the sleet would dominate much earlier, but ended up being a huge snow bomb with 2-3" per hour and 2-3 hours off on the changeover busted us in 5-6" worth of accumulation. Luckily it was a Sunday morning. Both also helped us shape the playbook for typical SWFEs. They were definitely different storms individually as 12/16/07 was further W and a stronger punch from the SW, but both helped us forecast SWFEs better for the future.

Yeah, if anything (besides probably my biggest bust at BOX) it was the storm that I probably learned more from than any other. It really sharpened my skills at forecasting SWFE's...and even tho I busted I'm glad it happened. But, as you know, an identical setup will happen at some point and it will just sleet.

[ORH_wxman]

That was probably the best forecast storm at BOX in a long time. Amounts and timing were pinned nearly perfectly at least 24 hours in advance.

Yeah, if anything (besides probably my biggest bust at BOX) it was the storm that I probably learned more from than any other. It really sharpened my skills at forecasting SWFE's...and even tho I busted I'm glad it happened. But, as you know, an identical setup will happen at some point and it will just sleet.

What was great about those discussions from both storms...is we both (NWS BOX and myself for my clients) performed damned near perfectly for the next year or so in SWFEs...I recall the Jan 14, 2008, Feb 22, 2008, Dec 19, 2008, and Jan 28, 2009 SWFEs being forecasted very well. Dec 13, 2007 was probably the best forecast by most of us 24h+ in advance for timing. My clients mostly care about timing because that's what saves them money, and that one was almost dead on. The only other forecast I would put ahead of that for me personally was the Feb 23-24, 2010 snow bomb in the ORH hills when all the TV outlets were going 1-3" and I dropped a 8-13" bomb on them, lol. They were still scarred from the huge Feb 10 bust and I was to a point, but just had to but it out on the line again. 12-16" later, it actually ended up being a slightly conservative forecast.

My favorite discussion though in the past 4 years was probably the ice storm thread leading up to it in December 2008. I think you were the forecaster on duty who issued the first watches...and you covered ORH county, NW Middlesex, and Western halves of Franklin, Hampshire, and Hamden counties as well as the SW NH counties....those watches were almost dead perfect...only Essex county was left out that got hit hard. But the discussion in that thread was one of the best back and forth banters on pure meteorology we've had IMHO on these boards.

[nzucker]

What was great about those discussions from both storms...is we both (NWS BOX and myself for my clients) performed damned near perfectly for the next year or so in SWFEs...I recall the Jan 14, 2008, Feb 22, 2008, Dec 19, 2008, and Jan 28, 2009 SWFEs being forecasted very well. Dec 13, 2007 was probably the best forecast by most of us 24h+ in advance for timing. My clients mostly care about timing because that's what saves them money, and that one was almost dead on. The only other forecast I would put ahead of that for me personally was the Feb 23-24, 2010 snow bomb in the ORH hills when all the TV outlets were going 1-3" and I dropped a 8-13" bomb on them, lol. They were still scarred from the huge Feb 10 bust and I was to a point, but just had to but it out on the line again. 12-16" later, it actually ended up being a slightly conservative forecast.

My favorite discussion though in the past 4 years was probably the ice storm thread leading up to it in December 2008. I think you were the forecaster on duty who issued the first watches...and you covered ORH county, NW Middlesex, and Western halves of Franklin, Hampshire, and Hamden counties as well as the SW NH counties....those watches were almost dead perfect...only Essex county was left out that got hit hard. But the discussion in that thread was one of the best back and forth banters on pure meteorology we've had IMHO on these boards.

Yeah the NWS went pretty conservative on the 2/24 storm....I think they were in the 8" range for Middlebury and I mentioned to skierinvermont that I thought 20" was possible with that finger of lift shooting up the Hudson/Champlain Valleys. I remember talking about the storm on our meteorology radio show and saying how uncertain it was. There were also some doubts about temperatures in that storm originally but Middlebury made out well and got the 20". It was a nice scenario for the Champlain Valley because winds remained light and didn't cause the usual downsloping, making me more confident.

You mention some nice storms, 12/19/08 was good for my house and 2/22/08 was great to Poughkeepsie where I was in time. had like 10" or so at moderate elevation on campus. Disregarding last year we've seen a lot of these OH Valley/SW Flow events since 07-08...the difference between 07-08 and 08-09 was mainly that the coastal plain started with colder airmasses in the latter winter and was able to accumulate a lot of advisory and low-end warning snows before flipping to IP/RA.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the NWS went pretty conservative on the 2/24 storm....I think they were in the 8" range for Middlebury and I mentioned to skierinvermont that I thought 20" was possible with that finger of lift shooting up the Hudson/Champlain Valleys. I remember talking about the storm on our meteorology radio show and saying how uncertain it was. There were also some doubts about temperatures in that storm originally but Middlebury made out well and got the 20". It was a nice scenario for the Champlain Valley because winds remained light and didn't cause the usual downsloping, making me more confident.

You mention some nice storms, 12/19/08 was good for my house and 2/22/08 was great to Poughkeepsie where I was in time. had like 10" or so at moderate elevation on campus. Disregarding last year we've seen a lot of these OH Valley/SW Flow events since 07-08...the difference between 07-08 and 08-09 was mainly that the coastal plain started with colder airmasses in the latter winter and was able to accumulate a lot of advisory and low-end warning snows before flipping to IP/RA.

The SWFEs were generally a bit south that '08-'09 winter vs '07-'08...the CP up north was plenty cold in '07-'08 in a lot of those events...Boston had over 50" that winter with cold snow events on 12/13/07, 12/16/07, and even 1/14/08 smoked them with 7-8" (that one was a huge bust for NYC)...but that one was a bit warmer in BOS. I think Ekster in Attleboro was snapping tree branches in that one.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah the NWS went pretty conservative on the 2/24 storm....I think they were in the 8" range for Middlebury and I mentioned to skierinvermont that I thought 20" was possible with that finger of lift shooting up the Hudson/Champlain Valleys. I remember talking about the storm on our meteorology radio show and saying how uncertain it was. There were also some doubts about temperatures in that storm originally but Middlebury made out well and got the 20". It was a nice scenario for the Champlain Valley because winds remained light and didn't cause the usual downsloping, making me more confident.

You mention some nice storms, 12/19/08 was good for my house and 2/22/08 was great to Poughkeepsie where I was in time. had like 10" or so at moderate elevation on campus. Disregarding last year we've seen a lot of these OH Valley/SW Flow events since 07-08...the difference between 07-08 and 08-09 was mainly that the coastal plain started with colder airmasses in the latter winter and was able to accumulate a lot of advisory and low-end warning snows before flipping to IP/RA.

Seems like cold air makes it further south as you get into the second and third years of a multi year la nina -- 00-01 was like this also. BTW still snowing here, might pull off two back to back nights with an inch of snow each-- nice storm

[Arnold214]

My favorite discussion though in the past 4 years was probably the ice storm thread leading up to it in December 2008. I think you were the forecaster on duty who issued the first watches...and you covered ORH county, NW Middlesex, and Western halves of Franklin, Hampshire, and Hamden counties as well as the SW NH counties....those watches were almost dead perfect...only Essex county was left out that got hit hard. But the discussion in that thread was one of the best back and forth banters on pure meteorology we've had IMHO on these boards.

There was some funny stuff in that ice storm thread. I remember arguing with someone who kept saying that the ice couldn't be significant b/c temps at 850 were approaching +10C. That really set me off, lol.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It's simple conceptually... The SPV was too dominate. The S/W moved into the confluence and that is a negative wave interference (deconstruction), and the dynamics thus dwindled away.

The NAM ...kinda was fooled - maybe - but even on that run it was still the skimpiest solution.

The NAM mostly rocked aside of one run. It got SLAMMED on this thread and ended up kicking butt and taking names.

TBH the worst part about a bust to me is forecasters getting slammed. People just dont understand the difficulty of forecasting.

Yes, I wanted the snow, but hearing people complain about "weather people" tomorrow at school is more annoying to me then not getting snow.

Has CT evacuated schools through Friday? Wasn't Torrington called off early today?

Radar just vaporized. Pretty hilarious. That part was modeled pretty well...lol.

RUC and HRRR nailed it. They had Pete getting some accums and most of us getting the fletch glove...moon river.

You were really bullish on this event, ready to rock and roll but it never happened. The computer models did a poor job this winter and I don't think this can be spun any other way.

And we likewise all showed our snowy biases. When the GFS was SE we ignored it........today it was NW and it got more weight than it should. Culmination of the other models didn't support the forecast at 12z.

I don't care that this trended to sh**, I just wish that the cold pattern never returned....It's like March 2010.

Well March 2011 hasn't been that bad here. Pretty normal, snowless, but normal.

Well, this board will start to go into slumber mode soon...

no more 1500 post threads for a little while

Good night ladies and gentlemen. I enjoyed this winter

1500 posts is more snowflakes than most of us saw today.

Oh come on now - those were schit inches considering that so many warm days caused a huge net loss/diminished value and you know it.

next year we need to donate to Ryan and his mobile tv crew.

[Arnold214]

The SWFEs were generally a bit south that '08-'09 winter vs '07-'08...the CP up north was plenty cold in '07-'08 in a lot of those events...Boston had over 50" that winter with cold snow events on 12/13/07, 12/16/07, and even 1/14/08 smoked them with 7-8" (that one was a huge bust for NYC)...but that one was a bit warmer in BOS. I think Ekster in Attleboro was snapping tree branches in that one.

It wasn't even snow that was falling...it was like 2" of snot fell from the sky.

[nzucker]

The SWFEs were generally a bit south that '08-'09 winter vs '07-'08...the CP up north was plenty cold in '07-'08 in a lot of those events...Boston had over 50" that winter with cold snow events on 12/13/07, 12/16/07, and even 1/14/08 smoked them with 7-8" (that one was a huge bust for NYC)...but that one was a bit warmer in BOS. I think Ekster in Attleboro was snapping tree branches in that one.

Was it the December 13, 2007 storm that gave some light snow/sleet accumulations here? And then we had that arctic blast near Christmas, do you remember that?

December and March were the coldest months that winter, I believe, for the Hudson Valley. I remember it being particularly stiff in mid March when I was hiking in the eastern Catskills with a group from Vassar, and we couldn't make it up to the 3500' peak because the extremely cold dry month had left everything a sheet of ice with no snowpack to protect oneself. I also remember bundling up a lot since I worked for the campus patrol office and I believe we approached record cold late that March with lows near 10F in Poughkeepsie.

[ORH_wxman]

There was some funny stuff in that ice storm thread. I remember arguing with someone who kept saying that the ice couldn't be significant b/c temps at 850 were approaching +10C. That really set me off, lol.

Lol, the classic wx4cast vs MEkster battle.

The 850 +10C isotherm kissed my backyard in that event...and had a borderline catastrophic ice storm to show for it. I'll never forget that sequence...I lost power and had no computer access for over 12 hours until I found a way to drive off my hill to panera bread down by Lake Quinsigamond to get internet access....and flip it on and realize nobody in the ice area had been posting for 12 hours like me.

The first thing I see is obs from you and Steve from an hour or two earlier talkijng about 65mph winds in SE MA and SE CT with temps in the mid 60s while it was 1.25" of ice here. Totally nuts. Then I post the pics and you reply "The next time someone calls bust in the early stages of an ice storm, I'm linking them to these pics" or something like that, lol.

[nzucker]

Lol, the classic wx4cast vs MEkster battle.

The 850 +10C isotherm kissed my backyard in that event...and had a borderline catastrophic ice storm to show for it. I'll never forget that sequence...I lost power and had no computer access for over 12 hours until I found a way to drive off my hill to panera bread down by Lake Quinsigamond to get internet access....and flip it on and realize nobody in the ice area had been posting for 12 hours like me.

The first thing I see is obs from you and Steve from an hour or two earlier talkijng about 65mph winds in SE MA and SE CT with temps in the mid 60s while it was 1.25" of ice here. Totally nuts. Then I post the pics and you reply "The next time someone calls bust in the early stages of an ice storm, I'm linking them to these pics" or something like that, lol.

Very sharp gradient, we barely went above 0C 850s at Middlebury and had like 7" snow.

[ORH_wxman]

It wasn't even snow that was falling...it was like 2" of snot fell from the sky.

Yeah you were reporting shotgun blasts with like an inch of snow, lol. That event was the biggest of my winter that year at 9.6" and that is kind of amazing considering we had nearly 80" of snow. Hard to get that seasonal total without a big double digit snowfall or two. But it was just a parade of 6-10" SWFEs. 5 of the events over over 7.7" though, lol...so the stat is a bit deceiving.

[Logan11]

It's basically been flurrying here since 5 PM.... A grand total of .3" to show for it. 23F for the last six hours. I see a mega patch of 15-20 dbz trying to work east toward me along the "debris field" still scattered w to e... That could be the heaviest snow of this storm...I'm all psyched.

Very sharp gradient, we barely went above 0C 850s at Middlebury and had like 7" snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

So says the guy dressing up his left hand like Sharon Stone.

What the hell is that even supposed to mean; I don't see it as strange to discuss snowpack measurements on a weather forum.....if that doesn't interest you, then piss off and log out.

Pretty simple.

[nzucker]

It's basically been flurrying here since 5 PM.... A grand total of .3" to show for it. 23F for the last six hours. I see a mega patch of 15-20 dbz trying to work east toward me along the "debris field" still scattered w to e... That could be the heaviest snow of this storm...I'm all psyched.

I've had like 1.25" in the two waves, still snowing decently. Radar looks OK for this area with the banding over E PA and NJ filling in.

[ORH_wxman]

What the hell is that even supposed to mean; I don't see it as strange to discuss snowpack measurements on a weather forum.....if that doesn't interest you, then piss off and log out.

Pretty simple.

I'm not sure what is weird about discussing the epic snow pack that occurred over the coastal plain this year...it was pretty incredible and almost everyone was talking about it. I guess since he missed out, its some weird fetish that only a select few of us have, but that was not that case.