Potential widespread snow event for Wednesday Night through Thursday.

[ORH_wxman]

May have, ha - that was equally as impressive a dismantling as it was creating.

Perception can get skewed a bit when we are exiting one of the best 3 week stretches in SNE history for snowfall. A roller coaster (yet overall snowy) month like February can seem like crap compared to that stretch we were coming out of. The first event of the month was not like the January's events...it was a SW flow event and we all did decent in it (except south coast and SE areas) with a widespread 8-12" snowfall, but there was sleet/ZR contamination too. It added onto the snow pack of January so it basically felt like a continuation, but it was a drastically different system...it was the Chicago blizzard (near lakes cutter), which is easy to forget since we did pretty well. The torch in mid month also left a bit of a sour taste on it, but we had been lucky to virtually avoid any semblance of a torch for 2 months prior except a brief one around New Years. Continuous snow and cold is the exception for us rather than the rule like the Green Mountains....we usually keep snow cover but there's a reason that even most winters that accumulate 80-100" have a hard time reaching 35" of snow depth, its because we get some torches mixed in to knock the snow pack back down a bit before the next event.

[nzucker]

is anyone else not even mad at this? I kinda think it all turned funny in some sick twisted way. I've never seen anything go down the ****ter so fast, at least recently

Yeah I am pissed...this event sucked. Not too often here that we have the BL and mid-level temps to get a big snowfall in late March with the storm missing to the south. We had about 1/5 the QPF modeled here in the suburbs.

BTW Will agree entirely that February wasn't that bad....good ice storm, good snowstorm, some cold in the 1st half of the month when we had the big snowpack. From my perspective, it was a decent month here and a solid one for New England.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm stating facts...you are stating opinion John. Its fine if you thought it sucked. I agree it was not like January, that's obvious. There was a net loss of snow pack because of the mid-month thaw.

Facts: February was above avg snowfall with below average temps for Boston and Worcester and all towns in between and north of the MA/CT border.

How you want to interpret them is subjective. I could have done without the mid-month torch too that put a dent in the snow depth, but guess what, I can think of so many Februarys worse than 2011. In fact, take the last 3 previous Februarys before this one for starters. It was a decent winter month. But when you are starting the month with 3 feet of snow pack, you are likely to have net loss.

I am aware what the stats are Will, but you should know, stats belie the experience. It's like one disappointment after another, then what, come in late and talk statistics to justify not being disappointed? Okay. I call a rose a rose.

But, It more than put a dent - the winter ended, and too many refused to get their heads around that. That's the point.

Now, sure - we may be dealt a good blow down the stretch.

[Typhoon Tip]

Perception can get skewed a bit when we are exiting one of the best 3 week stretches in SNE history for snowfall. A roller coaster (yet overall snowy) month like February can seem like crap compared to that stretch we were coming out of. The first event of the month was not like the January's events...it was a SW flow event and we all did decent in it with a widespread 8-12" snowfall, but there was sleet/ZR contamination too. It added onto the snow pack of January so it basically felt like a continuation, but it was a drastically different system...it was the Chicago blizzard (near lakes cutter), which is easy to forget since we did pretty well. The torch in mid month also left a bit of a sour taste on it, but we had been lucky to virtually avoid any semblance of a torch for 2 months prior except a brief one around New Years. Continuous snow and cold is the exception for us rather than the rule like the Green Mountains....we usually keep snow cover but there's a reason that even most winters that accumulate 80-100" have a hard time reaching 35" of snow depth, its because we get some torches mixed in to knock the snow pack back down a bit before the next event.

Disagree entirely. You just hammered stats. Well, the snow disappeared faster than it arrived, and that is the point for this forum - at least I thought. I was drilled for trying to tell people about the grading, and I used pure stats to do it, too. Not much reception there. People argued snow pack... hypocrisy.

You can't have it both ways. Winter ended unfavorably and the pattern changed in Feb unfavorably to do it, and some got some "lucky" snows to belie that truth. But the slow death began earlier than normal, at least for now...

[weatherwiz]

why not?

Not worth it.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I am pissed...this event sucked. Not too often here that we have the BL and mid-level temps to get a big snowfall in late March with the storm missing to the south. We had about 1/5 the QPF modeled here in the suburbs.

BTW Will agree entirely that February wasn't that bad....good ice storm, good snowstorm, some cold in the 1st half of the month when we had the big snowpack. From my perspective, it was a decent month here and a solid one for New England.

Perspective is big. If I play that card, then I can compare it to years like Feb '07 where my area had a crap mixed event on 2/14. That was pretty much it.

Of course I was disappointed to see the torch and yes winter definitely came down from the epic stretch, but I still had over 18" for the month. It's easy to get enthralled by the epic stretch we had and then feel left with a bitter taste in our mouth when we come down from the winter high of January..but it actually was a wintry month.

[ORH_wxman]

Disagree entirely. You just hammered stats. Well, the snow disappeared faster than it arrived, and that is the point for this forum - at least I thought. I was drilled for trying to tell people about the grading, and I used pure stats to do it, too. Not much reception there. People argued snow pack... hypocrisy.

You can't have it both ways. Winter ended unfavorably and the pattern changed in Feb unfavorably to do it, and some got some "lucky" snows to belie that truth. But the slow death began earlier than normal, at least for now...

Perhaps my expectations weren't as lofty as some. I knew early on in the month that we were going to see a mid-month thaw (started this thread on Feb 5th ), so I was perfectly happy to get 24-25" for the month even with the net loss of snow pack. Did you honestly expect to keep a 3 foot snow pack through February which climo dictates becomes a bit hostile in the 2nd half of the month for snow pack retention? Its not hypocrisy to use snow pack and then call a month okay if their is a net loss...you have to realize climo and the starting point. I don't expect to see a net gain of a 30"+ snow pack in February.

We'll just agree to disagree and leave it at that.

I do agree that perhaps we can pull one more storm off, but there's certainly plenty of ways for it to fail too.

[nzucker]

Perspective is big. If I play that card, then I can compare it to years like Feb '07 where my area had a crap mixed event on 2/14. That was pretty much it.

Of course I was disappointed to see the torch and yes winter definitely came down from the epic stretch, but I still had over 18" for the month. It's easy to get enthralled by the epic stretch we had and then feel left with a bitter taste in our mouth when we come down from the winter high of January..but it actually was a wintry month.

We were certainly due for a milder spell since the cold had been consistent since the 12/14 frontal passage brought in -20C 850s to the region. The snow squalls that night were the start of a great stretch.

The way I figure, I saw 24" snowpack encrusted by half an inch of ice after an unusual ZR event on 2/3, following the snow we got on 2/2. We torched after that but some snowpack remained in wooded areas for the entirety of the month. 2/21 was a nice event here with 8" of powder, and we just missed the overrunning event earlier in the month that drilled OK/AR with 20"+; remember, some models were showing that as an East Coast event with a strong coastal developing, so we did have the excitement of tracking that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Oh come on now - those were schit inches considering that so many warm days caused a huge net loss/diminished value and you know it.

Dude, did you expect a continuation of January....you a fool, if so-period.

[40/70 Benchmark]

But wait - you guys argued vehemently that it was snow pack that graded winter... WELL, if snow pack is erasing faster than gaining, ....hello

You're right.....I should have expected a 2' depth for 2 months, not 1.5...silly me; hello

[40/70 Benchmark]

Disagree entirely. You just hammered stats. Well, the snow disappeared faster than it arrived, and that is the point for this forum - at least I thought. I was drilled for trying to tell people about the grading, and I used pure stats to do it, too. Not much reception there. People argued snow pack... hypocrisy.

You can't have it both ways. Winter ended unfavorably and the pattern changed in Feb unfavorably to do it, and some got some "lucky" snows to belie that truth. But the slow death began earlier than normal, at least for now...

Dude, IMBY it was unprecedented in my 30 years to have 2'+ of snow for as long as I did; not sure what to tell you.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

But wait - you guys argued vehemently that it was snow pack that graded winter... WELL, if snow pack is erasing faster than gaining, ....hello

People that measure snow depth are the same guys meausiring their willy wonkas

[40/70 Benchmark]

People that measure snow depth are the same guys meausiring their willy wonkas

Like you wouldn't have, had you any to measure.

[ORH_wxman]

Dude, IMBY it was unprecedented in my 30 years to have 2'+ of snow for as long as I did; not sure what to tell you.

Its more the "epic pattern disappeared fast"...the switch was turned off after Jan 27th coastal.

All during the month of February we were commenting on how ridiculously resilient the snow pack was. Snow pack definitely did not disappear very quickly, lol. I had a 21" depth in early March still and I know you had not a heck of lot less, maybe 16-18" still going into this month.

We all would have loved for the continuation of the January pattern into early March...and then we could have gotten 200" on the season. But that is unrealistic to expect, and then comparing a typical SWFE gradient pattern to that one in January is like comparing 2009 Red Sox (good, but flawed) to the 1998 Yankees. Of course every pattern is going to look pretty bad when comparing it to that one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its more the "epic pattern disappeared fast"...the switch was turned off after Jan 27th coastal.

All during the month of February we were commenting on how ridiculously resilient the snow pack was. Snow pack definitely did not disappear very quickly, lol. I had a 21" depth in early March still and I know you had not a heck of lot less, maybe 16-18" still going into this month.

We all would have loved for the continuation of the January pattern into early March...and then we could have gotten 200" on the season. But that is unrealistic to expect, and then comparing a typical SWFE gradient pattern to that one in January is like comparing 2009 Red Sox (good, but flawed) to the 1998 Yankees. Of course every pattern is going to look pretty bad when comparing it to that one.

Yes, absolutely agreed.

[ORH_wxman]

If this winter didn't see any more snow here, I'd give it a B+...the pitiful March would knock the grade down. The snow pack run was incredible, but the seasonal total of 91.5" doesn't crack the top 10 here and I can't give it an A with that combined with the bad finish. If I was closer to Boston, I'd give it an A though...since the snow pack there was even rarer to get that deep and for that long and the actual totals were in the top 10. If I was just grading DJF, then I'd give it an A here.

[danstorm]

Sorry to the folks in NE...

... but this greatly exceeded expectations (at least for me) down here... we had several hours of SN then PL ... I even saw TSPL for the first time in my life!

Not bad...

[Chris L]

You're right.....I should have expected a 2' depth for 2 months, not 1.5...silly me; hello

LOL.

I don't understand where that is coming from. Not even January-February 1978 lasted that long with twice as much snow. right?

[ORH_wxman]

LOL.

I don't understand where that is coming from. Not even January-February 1978 lasted that long with twice as much snow. right?

As time passes, people tend forget the bad parts of great winters, and focus on the great parts. This will be no different. In 10 years, this winter will be remembered as epic and the slow finish will be a mere footnote. Since we are still experiencing the slow finish as we speak, its more magnified right now.

1978 had a huge torching lakes cutter 5 days after BOS saw 21" of snow...but its rarely remembered as a black mark. The Feb '78 blizzard happened 10 days later. 1993-1994's February torch is often forgotten and it nearly wiped out all the snow pack (which didn't get epically deep to begin with since there was a huge cutter in late January too) before the end of the month and early March came back strong. The Feb 1996 torch is often forgotten too as it was overshadowed by the late Jan 1996 torch...and of course there was a great end to that winter in both March and April. '60-'61 is in the hall of fame, and the early finish to that winter is a small foot note.

[A-L-E-X]

As time passes, people tend forget the bad parts of great winters, and focus on the great parts. This will be no different. In 10 years, this winter will be remembered as epic and the slow finish will be a mere footnote. Since we are still experiencing the slow finish as we speak, its more magnified right now.

1978 had a huge torching lakes cutter 5 days after BOS saw 21" of snow...but its rarely remembered as a black mark. The Feb '78 blizzard happened 10 days later. 1993-1994's February torch is often forgotten and it nearly wiped out all the snow pack (which didn't get epically deep to begin with since there was a huge cutter in late January too) before the end of the month and early March came back strong. The Feb 1996 torch is often forgotten too as it was overshadowed by the late Jan 1996 torch...and of course there was a great end to that winter in both March and April. '60-'61 is in the hall of fame, and the early finish to that winter is a small foot note.

With all this being said, Will, I think you'd agree that if the nina had stayed weak, it wouldn't have taken this long to get the neg NAO back. This winter could have easily beat 1995-96 here if that had been the case.

[A-L-E-X]

Sorry to the folks in NE...

... but this greatly exceeded expectations (at least for me) down here... we had several hours of SN then PL ... I even saw TSPL for the first time in my life!

Not bad...

You must have missed Jan 26-27... we saw thundersleet and even pea sized hail with that, as well as a tornado radar signature just offshore to my south with that one, before we got pummeled with heavy snow 5" per hour that night.

[ORH_wxman]

With all this being said, Will, I think you'd agree that if the nina had stayed weak, it wouldn't have taken this long to get the neg NAO back. This winter could have easily beat 1995-96 here if that had been the case.

It probably would have as the late season Nina pattern is pretty hostile for a -NAO...but that stuff is still quite speculative. Who knows for sure. It probably did cost NYC a shot at the record.

[Chris L]

With all this being said, Will, I think you'd agree that if the nina had stayed weak, it wouldn't have taken this long to get the neg NAO back. This winter could have easily beat 1995-96 here if that had been the case.

Alex, you are right ot an extent. but down here all we needed was ONE storm to do it for us and that was January 11-12th, 2011... we would have been over 55 inches of snow that month if all went well...

rather easily.

[A-L-E-X]

It probably would have as the late season Nina pattern is pretty hostile for a -NAO...but that stuff is still quite speculative. Who knows for sure. It probably did cost NYC a shot at the record.

Yep, the blocking was so massive early on, the gradient would have probably set up farther south in NJ-- I guess we'll never really know. People are thinking that might happen next year if we get a weak la nina, but I have my doubts of this kind of extreme neg NAO block developing again next winter. I think we need a weak el nino.

[Arnold214]

If this winter didn't see any more snow here, I'd give it a B+...the pitiful March would knock the grade down. The snow pack run was incredible, but the seasonal total of 91.5" doesn't crack the top 10 here and I can't give it an A with that combined with the bad finish. If I was closer to Boston, I'd give it an A though...since the snow pack there was even rarer to get that deep and for that long and the actual totals were in the top 10. If I was just grading DJF, then I'd give it an A here.

You know how I feel about snowpack, for the most part. I would use snowpack to account for a small part of my winter grade...but not much at all. All you need is cold weather to keep a crusty snowpack around, meh. After awhile you dont even need big cold to keep it around. I can't possibly give a winter an "A" if only 1 month was good in terms of snowfall. Maybe unless its mid jan 78-mid feb 78 or march '01. I'd probably give this winter a B...maybe a B- if nothing happens from here on out. If i lived in western ct i'd prolly give it an A.

[A-L-E-X]

Alex, you are right ot an extent. but down here all we needed was ONE storm to do it for us and that was January 11-12th, 2011... we would have been over 55 inches of snow that month if all went well...

rather easily.

Yes, these sharp cut offs will drive you crazy-- we could have said the same thing about Feb 6 last year-- could have had back to back 80" winters.... but I guess every winter has a few close shaves. I just don't remember any in 1995-96.... but we must've had a few. Were there any close misses for us that winter?

[Chris L]

You must have missed Jan 26-27... we saw thundersleet and even pea sized hail with that, as well as a tornado radar signature just offshore to my south with that one, before we got pummeled with heavy snow 5" per hour that night.

Yes, those rates were like February 2006 at its peak in my location or the king of them all, February '83 for rates per hour.

then again, I would reckon the best rates per hour in a nor'easter is the 1979 Presidents Day Storm for Calvert County, Maryland.... Appox 30-36 inches in a very very short time span. Ask Wes, about it. Bowie got 28 inches in 8-10 hours.

[A-L-E-X]

Yes, those rates were like February 2006 at its peak in my location or the king of them all, February '83 for rates per hour.

then again, I would reckon the best rates per hour in a nor'easter is the 1979 Presidents Day Storm for Calvert County, Maryland.... Appox 30-36 inches in a very very short time span. Ask Wes, about it. Bowie got 28 inches in 8-10 hours.

PD1-- we weren't supposed to get anything with that and somehow got a foot.... NWS busted with that one. I don't remember it at all, but I remember seeing a newspaper clipping on a website last year with an NWS guy apologizing lol.

[ORH_wxman]

You know how I feel about snowpack, for the most part. I would use snowpack to account for a small part of my winter grade...but not much at all. All you need is cold weather to keep a crusty snowpack around, meh. After awhile you dont even need big cold to keep it around. I can't possibly give a winter an "A" if only 1 month was good in terms of snowfall. Maybe unless its mid jan 78-mid feb 78 or march '01. I'd probably give this winter a B...maybe a B- if nothing happens from here on out.

Well I was using snow depth too as part of "Snow pack". A 38" depth was pretty awesome and the stretch of over 2 feet on the ground was very long. But I agree that keeping a 2" garbage pack around for 3 weeks isn't worth much...we did that in January 2004...no thanks on that month.

For here, Dec 26-Feb 2 saw over 6 feet of snow...so that stretch scores a ton of points. Obviously up where you are, it wasn't nearly as epic. S ME was kind of a mini-screw zone this winter. (I think I saw MaineJayhawk is still below avg for snow? Or near average?) I think you brought them bad luck, lol...Attlehole had a pretty awesome winter right when you left.

[Chris L]

For SNE, I would reckon January 2005 or December 1997 had incredible snow rates in certain locations.

Cape for 2005, 8" per hour? nearly 40" of snow there, that's once in a century event for the Cape!