ineedsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 can we lock this in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 hopefully the Euro goes towards the gfs, rgem was pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 can we lock this in! Nice to have the GFS on our side as opposed to the NAM that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS brushes us Sunday and looks like it's ready for something around the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS ensemble robust....GGEM is a dead ratter....Ukie is a scraper...not bad for CT though, probably 1-3" for BOS-ORH but some better amounts into CT. No 6"+ though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS ensemble robust....GGEM is a dead ratter....Ukie is a scraper...not bad for CT though, probably 1-3" for BOS-ORH but some better amounts into CT. No 6"+ though. GFS ensemble being west is a red flag, regardless of other guidance....I'd go with a UK\GEFS compromise, pending the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS ensemble being west is a red flag, regardless of other guidance....I'd go with a UK\GEFS compromise, pending the EURO. Big win for the GEFS if this ends up being a decent hit. They have not strayed the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Big win for the GEFS if this ends up being a decent hit. They have not strayed the course. I thk the EURO will be btwn the GFS and UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I thk the EURO will be btwn the GFS and UK. I'm feeling a dead ratter Euro run...that will pin our hopes on tomorrow's 12z suite. But if Euro makes a healthy jump north here, then I'll feel pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro has come north...not a massive jump, but maybe a solid 30-40 miles. Maybe an advisory event up to the pike rather than just a dusting to an inch. But a definite trend north, mid-levels as scooter would say look a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Good call Ray...it does look between the Ukie and the GFS/GEFS. Very nice commahead signature in the mid-levels but qpf isn't that great. Again, qpf is about 0.25-0.30 in the pike region and maybe slightly more into CT to 0.30-.40...and slightly less in YBY. But the upper and mid-levels are definitely healthier than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Good call Ray...it does look between the Ukie and the GFS/GEFS. Very nice commahead signature in the mid-levels but qpf isn't that great. Again, qpf is about 0.25-0.30 in the pike region and maybe slightly more into CT to 0.30-.40...and slightly less in YBY. But the upper and mid-levels are definitely healthier than 12z. AIT All I needed to see....game on for a nice 3-6" sf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 AIT All I needed to see....game on for a nice 3-6" sf. Hopefully this comes in just a shade stronger than models have it in the plains and everything else is status quo for the most part...that would put us right near ground zero. The mid-levels actually look really sweet. Not as good as the GFS, but pretty good. Just get that 5h shortwave a little more amped and we are game on as it will erode the dry air confluence more effectively to allow that very good mid-level fronto and deformation to get to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Significant elevated convective outbreak going on north of the warm front tonight in two areas - over eastern SD/southern MN, and in a long narrow band from N IL/IN ESE to central OH and WV. Both the NAM and GFS are (surprise, surprise!) too far south with both areas of convection, and the NAM barely shows either area. The GFS has a broad representation of both areas of convection but is missing the narrow, heavy nature of the bands. Even SPC was caught off guard by how far north the t'storms formed in the Plains: NW/SE ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...FIRST ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA THEN EXPANDING NWD INTO SD...MN...AND PERHAPS SWRN WI OVERNIGHT. The storms never formed across Nebraska but instead developed further north, across SD/MN and extreme NW IA. This also argues for a more amplified, further north trend in the Wed/Thu system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It looks like CT and up to pike region MA are in the best ML fronto on the WSI maps for the Euro...eying the isotherms. Never underestimate that aspect despite qpf...esp if you get a situation where low level dry air is overcome like this might be in a late Mar plains system that might be juicier. Hard to say how strong it will be...because differences in strength in the plains could make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Significant elevated convective outbreak going on north of the warm front tonight in two areas over eastern SD/southern MN and in a long narrow band from N IL/IN ESE to central OH and WV. Both the NAM and GFS are (surprise, surprise!) too far south with both areas of convection, and the NAM barely shows either area. The GFS has a broad representation of both areas of convection but is missing the narrow, heavy nature of the bands. This also argues for a more amplified, further north trend in the Wed/Thu system. Probably good news for this area Justin. Still concerned about the block though...but often spring time convection and just general extra moisture compared to mid winter systems can take charge and move storms north (which matches climo). But still worried about some confluence. The block is quite strorng, but so is that stuff in the plains...and we did just have the Euro go north a good tick with all its heights. So I'm cautiously optimistic at a decent event for a decent chunk of Southern New England...with CT right now being the best area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Significant elevated convective outbreak going on north of the warm front tonight in two areas - over eastern SD/southern MN, and in a long narrow band from N IL/IN ESE to central OH and WV. Both the NAM and GFS are (surprise, surprise!) too far south with both areas of convection, and the NAM barely shows either area. The GFS has a broad representation of both areas of convection but is missing the narrow, heavy nature of the bands. Even SPC was caught off guard by how far north the t'storms formed in the Plains: NW/SE ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...FIRST ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA THEN EXPANDING NWD INTO SD...MN...AND PERHAPS SWRN WI OVERNIGHT. The storms never formed across Nebraska but instead developed further north, across SD/MN and extreme NW IA. This also argues for a more amplified, further north trend in the Wed/Thu system. While this is important for the Midwest folk, it doesn't mean too much downstream. As Will said, the confluence will take a northward low ESE anyway. The 00z GFS is edging southward. The 00z UKMET/ECMWF solutions are the best in my opinion for a track of the h85 low from NW PA to C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This is such a difficult storm to forecast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Wagons still south for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I sure like where I am for the snow tomorrow nite and Thursday..though for you worriers north of the pike the inevitable north trend and furthur north expansion of snow shield is certainly going to occur to at least get you some decent snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Congrats on beating me this season, Kev....I officially concede. Last place in the Gay-Shwartz-Rev division two years running....I'll take it because 2008-09 was worth it. lol LOL..it ain't over till the Wiz passes out for good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I dunno Kev. BOX seems pretty certain this is south of the Pike Congrats Hartford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Just gorgeous out there right now. Snow draped over trees like frosting on Kevs weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I dunno Kev. BOX seems pretty certain this is south of the Pike Congrats Hartford LOL...snows to the NH border easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Just gorgeous out there right now. Snow draped over trees like frosting on Kevs weenie How could you turn such a beautiful image into something grotesque. To think, you are responsible for shaping young minds. Disturbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 LOL...snows to the NH border easily I expect a decent hit here. Things are setting up very nicely for the East Slope. Looks like once I drop below freezing here tonight it'll Stay below freezing until Monday.Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I expect a decent hit here. Things are setting up very nicely for the East Slope. Looks like once I drop below freezing here tonight it'll Stay below freezing until Monday.Nice. After today it gets nice again. No skiing today sadly. Back Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 After today it gets nice again. No skiing today sadly. Back Wednesday A day without skiing is like a day without snow. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The 6z gfs gives me a 5-8" snowstorm while the 6z nam gives me flurries. cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 A day without skiing is like a day without snow. Yuck. 5" fresh up here from yesterday/last night. I'm off from work for the rest of the week so a ski is in order today. I dropped my skin-bag (lol) with skins inside on the trail somewhere while skiing on Sunday so I need to go find that. Good thing I have a back up set of skins. I'm pretty sure I know exactly where I dropped it, so hopefully it won't be too hard to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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