CT Rain Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 18z GFS has finally pulled the plug. About time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Because that's easier? The best omega is displaced just SE of that but there's more at play than just that. There's lower level forcing involved too, so that's a good representation of the cumulative change between the runs. It's not a forecast tool and I thought that was pretty well understood. When 2-3 hours ago that shield was 75 miles SE and it's now come NW....we can surmize the associated dynamics also shifted. I'm working on a limited storage capacity of 40mb, by all means use some of your allocation to post those images. Ok, yeah I was just wondering about the use of forecast radar. I thought you were posting it to use it as a tool... not for entertainment purposes. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 18z GFS finally got a clue. It collapse S again from the 12z run. It does cut it close for south coastal areas for sure.....we'll be on the edge and either may get it pretty good or not. We shall see. As Kev always says...terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 BOX new map...cut down across the area but still this would be great if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 This storm is the meteorological equivalent of bull teats. oh about a 1/4" of accu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 18z nam didnt have any snow here really and mod snow is falling with almost a half inch already 18z GFS has finally pulled the plug. About time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 18z GFS has finally pulled the plug. About time. Yep. Still does show some decent lift tickling Cape Cod later. Ok, yeah I was just wondering about the use of forecast radar. I thought you were posting it to use it as a tool... not for entertainment purposes. My bad. It's just a quick cheat sheet for comparing individual runs. Keep in mind that's composite so there's times when it will be lit up do to contamination from ice etc....virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Radar starting to fill in nicely around the Hudson river Valley upstream of me. Continues 1/2 mile vis mod Sn 33/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 18z GFS has finally pulled the plug. About time. Wow this model just got served by the NAM/EURO combo. Not even close. And here's last night's 00z run valid the same time...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 its weird that kalb radar has no precip where we are but we still have mod snow falling Radar starting to fill in nicely around the Hudson river Valley upstream of me. Continues 1/2 mile vis mod Sn 33/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 28/21, snow, Nice mid-Winter look and feel out there. Snowpack continues to be fortified.Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 looks like convective precip is moving a hair north of east and is now just north of i80 in pa,,,,,,has a chance to scrape southern new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 its weird that kalb radar has no precip where we are but we still have mod snow falling I was just checking that out. It's snowing at a good clip here but radar looks like not much should be happening. Fine by me. Let it Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Wow, that def band over Lake Ontario got squashed like a bug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Wow this model just got served by the NAM/EURO combo. Not even close. And here's last night's 00z run valid the same time...lol Kev's the one that always beats the drum on the GFS. It's not a good model a majority of the time and it was woeful this time. It being so far on the other side probably resulted in a lot of people leaning to the snowy side when the NAM/Euro would have leaned against. looks like convective precip is moving a hair north of east and is now just north of i80 in pa,,,,,,has a chance to scrape southern new england Yes that's the big hope. Is Kev in his snow bunker holding hope or is he ready to fold on the 4-8/3-6 for all of CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yep. Still does show some decent lift tickling Cape Cod later. It's just a quick cheat sheet for comparing individual runs. Keep in mind that's composite so there's times when it will be lit up do to contamination from ice etc....virga. That's true... it shifts north, the forcing or something it is seeing must've shifted north. And I guess it is a pretty easy visual to see how the model is interpreting the evolution of a system. Very valid point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 how much do you have so far? I was just checking that out. It's snowing at a good clip here but radar looks like not much should be happening. Fine by me. Let it Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Same Here. radar says nothing over me but I have mod Sn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Old EE rule in full effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 lol this event really showed which "meteorologists" rip and read the GFS. Forecasts on the radio were saying 4-8" for Keene! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 just noticed one of the trees in my front yard has buds on it guess it didnt realize it can snow in late march either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 showery convective precip on the doorstep, should get interesting, thinking its sleet and snowgrains. regardless of what happens its been an amazing day if you love weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Old EE rule in full effect Is that when people shake up their snow globes and think that's what's falling outside? lol this event really showed which "meteorologists" rip and read the GFS. Forecasts on the radio were saying 4-8" for Keene! Yeah for sure. Also revealed some snow biases at least in Boston.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 We'll have to see if some of that blob of convection in PA can push a little north of east later tonight, as the RUC shows. The stuff out in NY state may be struggling with the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 showery convective precip on the doorstep, should get interesting, thinking its sleet and snowgrains. regardless of what happens its been an amazing day if you love weather! All snow here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Heavy Virga here. 35/16 Final call C-2", downgraded from my 2-5" this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 All snow here... all snow here too with a freshening ne wind big flakes about to rock and roll dusting so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Light coating here on glass/wood/railings etc. Temp down to 34 falling fast. RUC (21z) still gets close to hitting coastal areas later on with the developing low. Right now it "does" but best lift at 700 still misses...it's close as heck though. Away from the bottom 1/2 of CT/RI and maybe SE MA it's basically 0 QPF now...just the light stuff we see falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 how much do you have so far? When I left 2k @ 5pm there was about 1.5". here @ 1400' there's just under an 1" and snowing. Box sticking with 2-4" overnight here then 1-2" tomorrow. The snow the other day and now this has really freshened the snowpack up. Clean wall to wall white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 light snow 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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