ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 LOL, I've been looking at ENX and TYX radar. I want to see the space to the north of the sites start to fill in. It's beginning to slowly do that, but notice the echoes north of ENX have that north to south push to them. That's the confluence that we're battling, but hopefully it fills in some more. We should see it get better closer to ALB in the next 3-6 hours...the best ML frontogenesis is between BGM and ROC right now, so as it moves east, we can hopefully see the good snow obs translate with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 watch ... the 18z NAM will come in with .5" all the way to ASH-PSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Looking at the BUFKIT soundings here in CT there seems to be a 2 or 3 hour shot of omega that comes in just before midnight. Before that it's just garbage amounts. I think we will get something but I'm always leary when I'm watching big convection firing near PIT and I'm waiting for some solid and heavy stratiform precip to move in here. We went from a two pulse system with this first pulse getting us this evening and round two later tonight to getting a flizzard with the first round and the 2nd round even misses me. I hope maybe there's a feedback issue somewhere. Looks a little north of some guidance right now...can only hope that translates E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Looking at the BUFKIT soundings here in CT there seems to be a 2 or 3 hour shot of omega that comes in just before midnight. Before that it's just garbage amounts. I think we will get something but I'm always leary when I'm watching big convection firing near PIT and I'm waiting for some solid and heavy stratiform precip to move in here. I keep looking at that radar..it looks so nice out in western NY. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 eh, that's a commiseration post. Fact of the matter is, it will be interesting to see if it snows anyway despite the guidance. It's been a long while since we've seen a unilateral bust. But I guess none of this applies to you folks in CT because it was destined to snow there all along. There are backyards beyond the confines of Tollan though. And backyards other than Ayer, MA. It goes both ways. Plus, I'm sure any posters between Rochester and Buffalo right now aren't thinking that Mother Nature is playing a cruel joke on them. You can't win them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The royal cakehole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 No, Kev and Ray get grumpy when they track a storm for x days get roped in and it falls apart in Typhoon Dildo fashion. Everyone else is having perfectly normal weather conversations without twisting the words of others or deliberately misquoting them to cover their own rearends Dude, I don't think anyone else here would agree with you that I have become grumpy.....that was a simple, playful joke....relax. I'm taking this fail in stride, bro.....I haven't even really whined much, so I'm not sure what you are talking about. Anyone think I've been grumpy, feel free to call me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 18z nam doesn't look like its going to be any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 NAM doesn't let that band even reach ALB, lol...it will be interesting to watch over the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 18z nam sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 No, Kev and Ray get grumpy when they track a storm for x days get roped in and it falls apart in Typhoon Dildo fashion. Everyone else is having perfectly normal weather conversations without twisting the words of others or deliberately misquoting them to cover their own rearends Dude, I don't think anyone else here would agree with you that I have become grumpy.....that was a simple, playful joke....relax. I'm taking this fail in stride, bro.....I haven't even really whined much, so I'm not sure what you are talking about. Anyone think I've been grumpy, feel free to call me out. I was joking with you, but Kev is grumpy and he may need a Jeffrey after tonight (from get me to the greek..not a dude named jeffrey). 18z nam doesn't look like its going to be any better. Yeah, now I barely get anything but am on the edge of getting smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 NAM doesn't let that band even reach ALB, lol...it will be interesting to watch over the next couple hours. I'd take that.....rather see a 250 mile fail, than a 50 mile fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 We should see it get better closer to ALB in the next 3-6 hours...the best ML frontogenesis is between BGM and ROC right now, so as it moves east, we can hopefully see the good snow obs translate with it. The models really squash it east of Albany...they really shunt it south. The Albany area will be the test I think to see if models are right, or does the frontogenesis hold on and keep the echoes from completely weakening. If it looks good, and we start seeing the echoes cross the Berks in an organized fashion then the might mean better things down the Pike. The other secondary surge comes in later tonight as the low redevelops and we start to see the snow shield try and expand north from the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The worst part about the NAM is the 6 hour forecast seems to have a good handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 wtf the snow falling outside is bouncing down my roof must be little ice balls lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 18z nam sucks LOL, this one takes the cake as one of the bigger busts. Schools emptied early today for a few flurries and heavy low clouds tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 wow nam wow srefs big difference regarding the south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The Nam literally doesn't give me a flake, 1-3 flakes for Kev, 3-6 flakes for Litchfield . No one besides C/W NY gets more then 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Looks awful, but just let it play out.....1\27\11 taught me a lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 sounds like sleet but its not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 BUF reporting 1/4 +SN too...that is a good ML fronto band there. I think it will give some of us snow later on, but how intense it still is the $64,000 question. I still thinks this looks ok for a narrow area... this storm doesn't look like widespread snows but I could see a thin band slowly crawl WNW-ESE and leave 4-5" while areas only 20 miles north and south get a coating-1". It almost seems like the models are interpreting this as more smoothed out over a large area when in fact radar seems to show a 2-3 county width band of mod to heavy snows. I don't know, I still think someone in SNE gets lucky with a 5" pasting, and not the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 wow nam wow srefs big difference regarding the south coast Yeah the Srefs still look decent for 1-3" even up here, but the nam says i'll be smoking cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 The NAM is an electrical bath facilitator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 those storms in western pa are nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 NEXT! I have a slim chance of getting in on the pathetic CCB but otherwise this was all a big tease. the RUC and HRRR as well as radar trends don't support much of this getting beyond the Shires before it collapses/dies SE. Then we wait to see if the ocean portion can scrape some seagulls on Monomoy later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The NAM is an electrical bath facilitator. After the stretch we had and the baseball team we have ready to fire it up, hair dryers won't be anywhere near my tub. This is 2011...not 2010; I'm fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 This will be one of the more impressive model busts down here in a long time, from sweetspot to snowhole in 18 hrs.....hey what can you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 This will be one of the more impressive model busts down here in a long time, from sweetspot to snowhole in 18 hrs.....hey what can you do? Look for a Freddy Garcia poster on ebay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hey C_WEAT I hear the new RUC has turned about face and is a la crushing again?? Gotta post the good with the bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Still looking at models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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