dendrite Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Brutal...basically nothing outside of some -SN in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Full insertion by 54 hours....John's on a hot streak with is predictions. As he said towards the last minute we'd somehow get the cosmic dildo and it appears we are seeing that now. Euro FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Like we were saying on FB, not all of these will whiff. I'd rather get something earlier rather than later and take advantage of the cold atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Brutal...basically nothing outside of some -SN in CT. This run blows toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Like we were saying on FB, not all of these will whiff. I always target the most immediate threat since the further out stuff is much less safe...but regardless the pattern is loaded for about 10 days here at least...so hopefully one of them is a hit. I am still fairly optimistic for a decent event on this one, but the beginning of tonight's suite certainly shakes the confidence a bit. I can't think of many snow events that crunched to our south on March 24th, but that doesn't mean they can't or haven't happened. edit: now that I think about it, Mar 29, 1996 whiffed to our south and I thought that was it...but 10 days later we were nailed with the double barreled April events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Full insertion by 54 hours....John's on a hot streak with is predictions. As he said towards the last minute we'd somehow get the cosmic dildo and it appears we are seeing that now. Euro FTW? I'm not going to worry until later tomorrow. Storms can be pretty energetic this time of year and we'll see how another set of raobs try and clear the situation up. If it's south...it's south, but I think I'll see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm not going to worry until later tomorrow. Storms can be pretty energetic this time of year and we'll see how another set of raobs try and clear the situation up. If it's south...it's south, but I think I'll see something. Well this is the NAM. If I recall it's been kind of prone to these movements a lot this winter. Like you said, not worried until post 12z Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm not going to worry until later tomorrow. Storms can be pretty energetic this time of year and we'll see how another set of raobs try and clear the situation up. If it's south...it's south, but I think I'll see something. At the very least get 0.7" at Logan airport to get them to 80", lol. They are at 79.3" after today. But 1992-1993 (83.9") is realistically within reach which would be 6th place. '77-'78 too at 85.1" for 5th place but that will be a bit tougher in this event even if it comes back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Brutal...basically nothing outside of some -SN in CT. This run is BS.....I could fathom my area being screwed, but not all of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Everything is a bonus at this point and we have to realize there's a reason why statistically it's tougher to get snow late. Something usually goes wrong. That said will check it out Tuesday. I can't believe the golf course was covered today...that's really impressive for "cape cod" in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 At the very least get 0.7" at Logan airport to get them to 80", lol. They are at 79.3" after today. But 1992-1993 (83.9") is realistically within reach which would be 6th place. '77-'78 too at 85.1" for 5th place but that will be a bit tougher in this event even if it comes back north. I was hoping to break 90" this winter, but that may be tough. I'm at odds about today since I didn't get home until later, but I might take Logan's 0.3" which would put me just over 82". If Thursday can produce..maybe I have a shot. 2 more chances after Thursday, in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Everything is a bonus at this point and we have to realize there's a reason why statistically it's tougher to get snow late. Something usually goes wrong. That said will check it out Tuesday. I can't believe the golf course was covered today...that's really impressive for "cape cod" in late March. But not for the reason that we are encountering here......missing to the s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'd rather get something earlier rather than later and take advantage of the cold atmosphere. Obviously it isn't optimal to have to wait and I wouldn't choose to do so, but we may have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 But not for the reason that we are encountering here......missing to the s. I don't necessarily agree with Scott's statement. It's not that things go wrong, it's more that we know we are in an uphill battle to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 But not for the reason that we are encountering here......missing to the s. Yeah, Not at this time of year, You would be more likely to miss it north, nam at 84 take it for what its worth but if the others continue to follow it will have to be given some consideration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Obviously it isn't optimal to have to wait and I wouldn't choose to do so, but we may have to. Right, but it's a nice cold atmosphere for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This PV placement/setup is really going to make this a b**** over the next 24-30 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I don't necessarily agree with Scott's statement. It's not that things go wrong, it's more that we know we are in an uphill battle to begin with. Agreed.....I wouldn't qualify climo acting as an increasingly large deterrent as "something going wrong"......that is a little vague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Agreed.....I wouldn't qualify climo acting as an increasingly large deterrent as "something going wrong"......that is a little vague. If anything climo would help us in this setup by bringing it further north. Its sort of the "anti climo" that could screw us over...a storm getting crushed to our south in late March because of too much arctic high confluence. Not something very common, but certainly could happen here. I'm hoping that we see this plains system trend stronger in the next 24h and in tandem with the potent SE ridge, it bullies the confluence a bit back to the north, but we are running out of time. Today's Euro and tonight's early 00z suite have been pretty cruddy trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'll be more concerned post GFS. My statement was very vague....that just in general and not in reference to this situation it is harder to get it all together. When we have storms maybe not cold, cold maybe not storms etc. We shall see....I like everyone's attitude....think we all agree to take it all in for the next 6-18 hours before getting hard into the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'll be more concerned post GFS. My statement was very vague....that just in general and not in reference to this situation it is harder to get it all together. When we have storms maybe not cold, cold maybe not storms etc. We shall see....I like everyone's attitude....think we all agree to take it all in for the next 6-18 hours before getting hard into the game. I'm pretty much expecting this to be a dud 00z suite. I think the GFS will come south and other guidance will be ugly. The hope is that next suite comes back north. But who knows, we've been tricked many times by the SREF/NAM combo early in the night only to see a totally different trend once the globals come in. But that is just my gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 RGEM down yonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I just hoe we can get things to work out to where BDL gets at least 4.1'' of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I just hoe we can get things to work out to where BDL gets at least 4.1'' of snowfall. Brad Field (Ryan's boss) reallyyyy downplayed the whole thing. Said maybe 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS actually looks better over SNE, especially at hr 54. Much more organized with the QPF in that area. GFS seems a little stronger with ridging off the East Coast as compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS actually looks better over SNE, especially at hr 54. Much more organized with the QPF in that area. GFS seems a little stronger with ridging off the East Coast as compared to 18z. Yeah totally different solution than the earlier NAM/SREF...has the 850 low over NYC and its pretty well defined. That would be quite nice for SNE...very nice mid-level features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yeah totally different solution than the earlier NAM/SREF...has the 850 low over NYC and its pretty well defined. That would be quite nice for SNE...very nice mid-level features. I was just thinking that. About as good as it can get with those, given this setup. It actually might hurt if it came more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 ill take the gfs over the nam any day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I was just thinking that. About as good as it can get with those, given this setup. It actually might hurt if it came more north. I think GFS would be close to marginal warning criteria...esp for high terrain...but it helps that its bulk comes in during the night time hours. Those ML features are really good. Glad to see it not follow the suppressed trend, but obviously it doesn't mean its right. Still better than having it south though...gives a bit more confidence to our thinking that we may see this a bit more robust. Hopefully the foreign models follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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