40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Time for Scooter to impart some sneaky optimism upon this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 lol at all the people giving up on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 lol at all the people giving up on this Every model at 12z pretty much looks like crap and so does the radar. Many areas will be lucky to see 2" in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 lol at all the people giving up on this What guidance out there instills any optimism out of this "threat"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Radar is definitely crappy--some convective stuff out in PA, but I don't see a precip shield anywhere except far western NY.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think 1-5" is a good general call for CT. 3-5" in the SW, esp. interior areas, and 0-2" in the far NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 how many times this winter have we saw this just to have the models bounce back at the last second ? What guidance out there instills any optimism out of this "threat"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Time for Scooter to impart some sneaky optimism upon this thread. We just have to monitor the radar and watch how those echoes precede to the ese. There is also some convection developing over OH. You and I are in tough spots thanks to our lat/long. Basically the opposite of SWFE. The key will be to see how those echoes translate east, because the frontogenesis will be there, but what we don't want is for the echoes to get shredded out and dried up. I'm hoping it can survive east, but it will be battling some negative factors. I'm rooting for a several hour shot of snows later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 how many times this winter have we saw this just to have the models bounce back at the last second ? Can't recall since it's been 50 days since I've seen a snowfall greater than 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 do things ever bust north / bullish esp for SNE when there is confluence forecast so close as well. seems a bias of the models w/ confluence present is to undero the influence. however i have not lost hope yesterday models had precip alligned more wsw/ene toward around midnite- 2am tonite...i hope to see that signature on radar. be interesting when hPC updates their 4 inch snow probs at 230-330pm http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 We just have to monitor the radar and watch how those echoes precede to the ese. There is also some convection developing over OH. You and I are in tough spots thanks to our lat/long. Basically the opposite of SWFE. The key will be to see how those echoes translate east, because the frontogenesis will be there, but what we don't want is for the echoes to get shredded out and dried up. I'm hoping it can survive east, but it will be battling some negative factors. I'm rooting for a several hour shot of snows later tonight. Scooter what would be your best guess down this way, yes at the coast, however dew points are dropping down to 29 as well as temps 34. North wind also, precip is super light but it is frozen even during the middle of the day, with the best snows forecast after sunset. Best guess? Some of the meso models look pretty good tonight down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 We just have to monitor the radar and watch how those echoes precede to the ese. There is also some convection developing over OH. You and I are in tough spots thanks to our lat/long. Basically the opposite of SWFE. The key will be to see how those echoes translate east, because the frontogenesis will be there, but what we don't want is for the echoes to get shredded out and dried up. I'm hoping it can survive east, but it will be battling some negative factors. I'm rooting for a several hour shot of snows later tonight. scott what about tonite like after midnite.....seems the confluence or what ever abates slightly and aligns itself slightly wsw/ene ? isn't there supposed to be ESE inflow over the cold air......no wringing out of moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Time for Scooter to impart some sneaky optimism upon this thread. How about some humor? "Time for baseball, fertilizer, and lawnmower tuneups" As we were thinking all along. "Posted 15 March 2011 - 03:28 PM Rev Kev 3rd snowless March in a row for all of us. Hard to believe" As we thought.. It's over. Sadly...it's done As we were thinking from the get-go The writing is on the wall....it's better to face reality than fool myself any longer As you had been thinking since the inception AWT..gonna be a biggie for us As we knew would be the case Think we might end up with 8-12 inches total from both..more in some places TBD Exactly as planned Here come all the exhaust pipe smokers. puff awy..and I'll post AWT's later As you had been thinking! I'm honestly not worried. Things look on track to me. I don't see any reason why pike south doesn't get a solid 3-5 or spot 6. unless folks are humping models As had been discussed prior Will what are you thinking? This is where you should have started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 How about some humor? "Time for baseball, fertilizer, and lawnmower tuneups" As we were thinking all along. "Posted 15 March 2011 - 03:28 PM Rev Kev 3rd snowless March in a row for all of us. Hard to believe" As we thought.. As we were thinking from the get-go As you had been thinking since the inception As we knew would be the case Exactly as planned As you had been thinking! As had been discussed prior This is where you should have started. Boy was I wrong..3-6 tonight and another next week. thank you for reminding me..how wrong I really was. What a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 :popcorn: seasonably cold out here. cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Scooter what would be your best guess down this way, yes at the coast, however dew points are dropping down to 29 as well as temps 34. North wind also, precip is super light but it is frozen even during the middle of the day, with the best snows forecast after sunset. Best guess? Some of the meso models look pretty good tonight down here. I haven't look all that hard to be honest, but maybe a 2-4" deal? I think Jconsor had that and it seems like a good range, given uncertainty. We're banking on moisture that currently is not there to develop and the fact it's late March isn't exactly a confidence booster, but that seems like an ok range. The RGEM and SREFs liked your area, and perhaps it could be more if there is any mesoscale banding, but this whole thing is tricky. It's not like we have organized forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Boy was I wrong..3-6 tonight and another next week. thank you for reminding me..how wrong I really was. What a bust 3-6 flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I haven't look all that hard to be honest, but maybe a 2-4" deal? I think Jconsor had that and it seems like a good range, given uncertainty. We're banking on moisture that currently is not there to develop and the fact it's late March isn't exactly a confidence booster, but that seems like an ok range. The RGEM and SREFs liked your area, and perhaps it could be more if there is any mesoscale banding, but this whole thing is tricky. It's not like we have organized forcing. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 scott what about tonite like after midnite.....seems the confluence or what ever abates slightly and aligns itself slightly wsw/ene ? isn't there supposed to be ESE inflow over the cold air......no wringing out of moisture? Yeah at that time WAA is going to try and push north. That's when the chance exists. There will be ESE flow, but if the confluence is too overpowering, we won't be able to establish nice Atlantic inflow because the 950-850 lows may be weak. We're just going to have to hope the frontogenesis is strong enough to bring some snow into the Pike region. You and Will have a better shot than I do..thanks to longitude. I think what we want to see is the stuff over MI continuing to blossom and for the echoes over NY state to continue to precede east. They'll weaken as they do so, but as the forcing moves east..it will hopefully allow for the echoes to hold together as they move into SNE. What you don't want is for the echoes to shred out and look like garbage as we head into this evening. That's a big possibility near BOS, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Boy was I wrong..3-6 tonight and another next week. thank you for reminding me..how wrong I really was. What a bust hah...I busted yesterday thinking this thing was coming farther north to hit ORH-BOS. lesson learned: ESE moving waves running up against confluence = the suck no matter climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 If the euro's right..even Joe will be counting flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 flakes flying in the air again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 31.snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Euro is la phail. wow Oh well some mood flakes in the air now, and tonight, with no stoppage in work, looking at radar its hard to go against the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 If the euro's right..even Joe will be counting flakes. Yeah I think it's seriously time to cut this one loose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You guys be nice to Kev, this ones going to be a hard pill to swallow, it may have been his last chance to get to 100, MAY have been. Have a great day everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Wow the Euro is an epic fail. I'd say that's virtually no accumulation anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 light steady snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Wow the Euro is an epic fail. I'd say that's virtually no accumulation anywhere. let's see if the Nam kills it next-won't surprise me. Big bust from just 12 hrs ago assuming the euro and a couple of others are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 let's see if the Nam kills it next-won't surprise me. Big bust from just 12 hrs ago assuming the euro and a couple of others are correct. Every model is close to a fail now. The GFS has been terrible and is cutting back. SREFs are cutting back. This time of year you need a prolonged steady thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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