dendrite Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Oh no!! Anyone factoring that in should have had their head examined. I enjoy that type of mesoscale stuff you synoptic snob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think I'll manage 1-3". Funny you should say that becasuse I think this is very similar to the Jan pattern. I'm not criticizing you for backing off....all info supports that conclusion and I'm going on a hunch, but lets not act as though the event has already passed; you were the one touting all season long how we can't trust models beyond 6 hrs anymore, blah, blah, blah...so get w the program and heed your own advice. Well part of it is the gaping hole on radar to the west. Yeah some of this was expected but it's pretty bad. Think about the children, can the poster from cT where they've closed schools get home safety in the solar glare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 I enjoy that type of mesoscale stuff you synoptic snob. LOL, the only mesoscale stuff he likes is CF type material..but rightfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Well part of it is the gaping hole on radar to the west. Yeah some of this was expected but it's pretty bad. Think about the children, can the poster from cT where they've closed schools get home safety in the solar glare? It probably will come down to nowcasting. I wouldn't be shocked if we see a narrow band away from the main action further south in CT producing some snow overnight across SNE. It would probably be right on the nrn edge of those echoes near BUF. Of course, that's if confluence doesn't destroy it, but I wouldn't be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Oh crap! I started that thread as asked but it appears someone else beat me by a pube so if a moderator wants to deal with that feel free - and should. no disrespect was intended. sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It probably will come down to nowcasting. I wouldn't be shocked if we see a narrow band away from the main action further south in CT producing some snow overnight across SNE. It would probably be right on the nr edge of those echoes near BUF. Of course, that's if confluence doesn't destroy it, but I wouldn't be shocked. I thought the question would be is the pike area the shutoff or the MA/NH border. Seems like it may be south of even the former but we'll see. GFS looks to be coming in flatter too. (i've only seen to h3) It's a sweep. thru 6 hours it's cut back on the dynamics/moisture in PA/NY pretty significantly over the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Oh crap! I started that thread as asked but it appears someone else beat me by a pube so if a moderator wants to deal with that feel free - and should. no disrespect was intended. sorry. I just don't write prose like you so it takes me less time to out a threat thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I enjoy that type of mesoscale stuff you synoptic snob. My point was that is usually just doesn't wk out....case en point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Well part of it is the gaping hole on radar to the west. Yeah some of this was expected but it's pretty bad. Think about the children, can the poster from cT where they've closed schools get home safety in the solar glare? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 3-6 for all of CT So you've backed off on the 4-8 you put on Facebook this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 the cold air is impressive on the N winds. temps in the teens to 20 in full march sunshine here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 LOL, the only mesoscale stuff he likes is CF type material..but rightfully so. Those are high percentage....inv troughs on the other side of the rainbow aren't. I wasn't knocking him for being interested in them, just those who counted on that. My exact quote to the NAM image that Will posted of that inverted trough bullseyeing mby was "crap".....lo and behold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 lol It's embarassing that this keeps going on. It really is, nation of puss*es as Governor Rendell said. So you've backed off on the 4-8 you put on Facebook this morning? But he's not backing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's all your fault. the cold air is impressive on the N winds. temps in the teens to 20 in full march sunshine here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It probably will come down to nowcasting. I wouldn't be shocked if we see a narrow band away from the main action further south in CT producing some snow overnight across SNE. It would probably be right on the nrn edge of those echoes near BUF. Of course, that's if confluence doesn't destroy it, but I wouldn't be shocked. Exactly....eseentially all I have been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 So you've backed off on the 4-8 you put on Facebook this morning? What's your call? Flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 My point was that is usually just doesn't wk out....case en point. Well yeah...but every model has been showing a hint of it. Obviously it still may not pan out, but it's intriguing to me. Some spots could get a surprise Thu night/Fri morning if the cards fall right. It's more interesting than my confluent cirrus right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 What's your call? Flurries? You're good for 2-4", anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS still has 0.25-0.5" for most of CT...0.5"+ in the far SW. But...probably would be a good idea to shave off about 0.1" of that, as it brings that through in this first band during the daylight hours and I think its gonna be hard for that to amount to much. Still looking like 1-3" may be the most rational call for CT, with some spots in the SW possibly seeing up to 5" overnight. Maybe if we catch a break and the models corrected too far south, we could tack on an extra inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You're good for 2-4", anyway. Messengers calling for no snow anywhere in SNE..so i'm confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Exactly....eseentially all I have been saying. It always comes down to nowcasting though. -- GFS isn't too bad, only about a xx mile shift south from the 0z and about 1/2 the QPF. As Kev says, worthless model that should almost never be the first choice. Most of CT still in the .2 to .4 type deal.... I'm around .1 to .25. Coating to 2" seems reasonable for many here in MA...maybe 1-3" in some favored locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 What's your call? Flurries? I like 3-6 for most of CT I guess. I really haven't looked at much. Am starting to dive in now. Maybe 2-4 though... not sure what i'll go with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I still say Kev and Will hit 100" before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 3 to 6 south of the pike 1 to 3 north of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 I thought the question would be is the pike area the shutoff or the MA/NH border. Seems like it may be south of even the former but we'll see. GFS looks to be coming in flatter too. (i've only seen to h3) It's a sweep. thru 6 hours it's cut back on the dynamics/moisture in PA/NY pretty significantly over the 6z Well I'd still watch for some mid level action late night. These things seemingly always appear north of what models have. It might not happen, but the GFS still has the signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS still has 0.25-0.5" for most of CT...0.5"+ in the far SW. But...probably would be a good idea to shave off about 0.1" of that, as it brings that through in this first band during the daylight hours and I think its gonna be hard for that to amount to much. Still looking like 1-3" may be the most rational call for CT, with some spots in the SW possibly seeing up to 5" overnight. Maybe if we catch a break and the models corrected too far south, we could tack on an extra inch. Yeah but flip through the last 4-5 runs of the GFS on twisterdata. Not a real super terrific happy hour trend there at 700mb in terms of omega, other dynamics and QPF. Useless model. Messengers calling for no snow anywhere in SNE..so i'm confused Have the plows come by there yet in a pre-emptive strike? If I were you I'd definitely ride the model you bash all the time as being worthless instead of the RGEM/NAM/EURO which are considerably less robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It always comes down to nowcasting though. -- GFS isn't too bad, only about a xx mile shift south from the 0z and about 1/2 the QPF. As Kev says, worthless model that should almost never be the first choice. Most of CT still in the .2 to .4 type deal.... I'm around .1 to .25. Coating to 2" seems reasonable for many here in MA...maybe 1-3" in some favored locations. To a degree, of course, but certain situations warrant it more so than others.....tight confluent zones, especially this time of year, fall into that category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Will should post and bring back some semblance of reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Well I'd still watch for some mid level action late night. These things seemingly always appear north of what models have. It might not happen, but the GFS still has the signal. I really wanna mess w this quote, but since you're advocating what I am selling so heavily ....lol Exactly....final call is 1-3", here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Well I'd still watch for some mid level action late night. These things seemingly always appear north of what models have. It might not happen, but the GFS still has the signal. True but as I said to windcredible...in general comparing each GFS run since late mon/early tues...it's going the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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