HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Sun breaking through here. Radar looks pretty broken up to the west. Would prefer to see a more solid shield of precip. Driving to Boston shortly and coming back later this afternoon. Hopefully some snow by then but I'll keep expectations low for N of RT 2. Congrats to the folks in NY/NJ. Bet most didn't think they would see this type of event until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I'm honestly not worried. Things look on track to me. I don't see any reason why pike south doesn't get a solid 3-5 or spot 6. unless folks are humping models Other than the fact that the models are all backing way off in the last innings here?? NAM has .02 total for BOS after laboring to get to .4+" on the 18z yesterday... I don't think the NAM is going to be that wrong... and it is laboring to get .5" liq equiv to NYC. The signals abound in the models and conceptually derived by synoptic awareness (to mention the NAO diving) so I think realistically it might be a better idea to be more conservative than that. Btw, someone may want to start a thread specifically honing the better signaled event for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 had a burst of 1/2 mile SN that didn't stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Other than the fact that the models are all backing way off in the last innings here?? NAM has .02 total for BOS after laboring to get to .4+" on the 18z yesterday... I don't think the NAM is going to be that wrong... and it is laboring to get .5" liq equiv to NYC. The signals abound in the models and conceptually derived by synoptic awareness (to mention the NAO diving) so I think realistically it might be a better idea to be more conservative than that. Btw, someone may want to start a thread specifically honing the better signaled event for next week. I'm not. My threads have been akin to me touching a rose and watching it turn black. That's all you or Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 radar says it should be snowing here but its not and sun is peeking threw the clouds now I highly doubt we see anything from this.. never mind 3-6.. Its spring time folks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 This can't be Sam, The Sam we know was excited for riveting 10 degree temp rises, 30kt winds, and 70F temps. I have more specific criteria for winter weather excitement in late March. A chance of 1-2" doesn't make the cut. But the prospects of something big are looking good for next week IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Right, that's why I'd like to see how it looks as it develops. I know models are crapping it out. I never expected any significant, but was hoping for 2-3", yesterday. Might be a pipe dream now. Time will tell but when it struggles to get cloudy that's usually not a good sign. radar looks epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 had a burst of 1/2 mile SN that didn't stick. Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Here come all the exhaust pipe smokers. puff awy..and I'll post AWT's later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 ETA is similar to the NAM - still a nice hit N NJ/NYC/LI but the 0.10" QPF line runs from about the MA/RI/CT border to about halfway between PVC and CQX on the Cape. I think the RSM is the last remaining hope for weenies along and N of the Pike, but I'm not putting much faith in it since it appears to have convective feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think I mentioned it a couple of times this morning and how come Tuesday I'll probably be pegged for a mix with the PV out of the way. But it's nice having the GFS well SE at this point. It's the one at a time scenario here though...you and I have no eggs in tonight's basket so it's easier to look ahead. The NAM basically fizzles the inverted trough too, but it was never really impressive with it from the beginning. Its sister NMM/ARW SREF members were much more impressive. Only 27.9F up here right now. Pretty cold for partial sunshine at 11am this time of the year. lol yeah, it does get a little dicey depending on the timing of the NAO phase change. I really feel good about it at this point though. The 12z Euro will probably drive the low into Toronto now... haha. It's true I guess that people are preoccupied with tonight. 3-6" is just so riveting, I don't think I could possibly tear my eyes from the radar for 30 seconds to look at the next storm I was never that interested in tonight's storm for us. I might be able to squeeze half an inch out of it if I get maybe an hour's worth of decent snow growth. Then maybe a few scattered snow showers tomorrow afternoon for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Bob or John, we need a thread for next week! I think John should start it out ... he's been pretty good for long range juju, and then Bob has been the man for short range juju this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Mets..throw out some final snowfall total forecasts please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 RGEM is waving the TT Dildo too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 RGEM is waving the TT Dildo too. This made me laugh... oh man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Wow @ the 6z nam gradient. It has .8" qpf for all of CT but quickly drops off to a few tenths north of BOS. That will verify N. ....CT will jackpot, but I'll end up with solid adv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 This made me laugh... oh man. 9 out of 10 times when you talk about the possibility of the cosmic dildo we end up getting screwed. RGEM barely gets the 5mm line to me...and actually probably doesn't. In reailty Kev barely gets to the 5mm line now overnight. AWFUL Huge jump south from the 0z last night. You all owe the NAM an apology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I'm not. My threads have been akin to me touching a rose and watching it turn black. That's all you or Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think I mentioned it a couple of times this morning and how come Tuesday I'll probably be pegged for a mix with the PV out of the way. But it's nice having the GFS well SE at this point. It's the one at a time scenario here though...you and I have no eggs in tonight's basket so it's easier to look ahead. The NAM basically fizzles the inverted trough too, but it was never really impressive with it from the beginning. Its sister NMM/ARW SREF members were much more impressive. Only 27.9F up here right now. Pretty cold for partial sunshine at 11am this time of the year. Oh no!! Anyone factoring that in should have had their head examined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Bob or John, we need a thread for next week! I think John should start it out ... he's been pretty good for long range juju, and then Bob has been the man for short range juju this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Suck the tailpipes and your models folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Suck the tailpipes and your models folks What is your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 9 out of 10 times when you talk about the possibility of the cosmic dildo we end up getting screwed. RGEM barely gets the 5mm line to me...and actually probably doesn't. In reailty Kev barely gets to the 5mm line now overnight. AWFUL Huge jump south from the 0z last night. You all owe the NAM an apology. I think we all owe verification a nod.....you went through this same song and dance on Jan 27.....dealing out victory handies to various models and posters, then BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I don't think you have much hope of seeing steady snowfall in Nothern CT until this stuff in NY State manages to get to the Hudson Valley and then eventually CT.... People on the south coast another stpry..... I'm honestly not worried. Things look on track to me. I don't see any reason why pike south doesn't get a solid 3-5 or spot 6. unless folks are humping models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Suck the tailpipes and your models folks So what are you expecting there? And what is your dividing line for the AWT? What areas have to get how much? And are you doing the measuring or can we send Ryan in again? --- Here's the new RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think we all owe verification a nod.....you went through this same song and dance on Jan 27.....dealing out victory handies to various models and posters, then BOOM. blah blah blah. For a month a 2nd grader could double the QPF and be right 99% of the time. Times have changed, get with the program...... This is serious business, schools in CT are being borded up over the impending blizzard. No room for joking or back and forth, this is life and death. What's your forecast buttermaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 1-2" for Interior SE MA. T-2 for Cape/Islands/South Coast/South Shore 1-2" BOS out to ORH points N 2-4" S & W of a ORH/PVD line(highest amounts to the W and higher elevations) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 What is your call? yesterday it was 12"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 blah blah blah. For a month a 2nd grader could double the QPF and be right 99% of the time. Times have changed, get with the program...... This is serious business, schools in CT are being borded up over the impending blizzard. No room for joking or back and forth, this is life and death. What's your forecast buttermaker? I think I'll manage 1-3". Funny you should say that becasuse I think this is very similar to the Jan pattern. I'm not criticizing you for backing off....all info supports that conclusion and I'm going on a hunch, but lets not act as though the event has already passed; you were the one touting all season long how we can't trust models beyond 6 hrs anymore, blah, blah, blah...so get w the program and heed your own advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 What is your call? 3-6 for all of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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