40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Nice run for us too It's interesting that the GFS seems to be warmer than the NAM by far despite that the surface low track is not that much different. It could be that the NAM is a little slower and the high has more influence as the coastal gets cranking, but really not sure. At 24 hours, NAM has low in extreme SW corner of PA, whereas the GFS has already tracked it to Jebman territory in N VA. The GFS is stronger in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You are probably ahead of the average season snowfall for Middlebury now - or certainly will be after tomorrow. This will blow me past the 100" mark by a few inches anyway.... 110" is plausible. Nice run for us too It's interesting that the GFS seems to be warmer than the NAM by far despite that the surface low track is not that much different. It could be that the NAM is a little slower and the high has more influence as the coastal gets cranking, but really not sure. At 24 hours, NAM has low in extreme SW corner of PA, whereas the GFS has already tracked it to Jebman territory in N VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You are probably ahead of the average season snowfall for Middlebury now - or certainly will be after tomorrow. This will blow me past the 100" mark by a few inches anyway.... 110" is plausible. He's def ahead of Middlebury avg...they avg less than I do by a few inches being in the valley there. Its a poor spot for snowfall compared to surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 He's def ahead of Middlebury avg...they avg less than I do by a few inches being in the valley there. Its a poor spot for snowfall compared to surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 I guess Kevin fell asleep trying to run the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I guess Kevin fell asleep trying to run the GFS. NCEP didn't want us to see the monster bomb for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Its deceptively cold out there...I assumjed it was like 34 or something, but its down 27 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Its deceptively cold out there...I assumjed it was like 34 or something, but its down 27 here. 29.2\26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Still 30 here. Steel ovc all day here and only hit 36....pleasantly raw for late March. But clouds haven't allowed much drop. Its deceptively cold out there...I assumjed it was like 34 or something, but its down 27 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Canadian went south from 12z, but that seems to be the subtle trend tonight. Hopefully the confluence opens up the door a little tomorrow. These energetic lows coming out of the Plains are tricky so you never know, but we're fighting the PV as well. If we can get the good mid level frontogenesis, then we should be ok for advisory stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 He's def ahead of Middlebury avg...they avg less than I do by a few inches being in the valley there. Its a poor spot for snowfall compared to surrounding areas. Ridiculous that my house in NYC metro will have beaten Midd's average two years in a row. Good sign for those of us worried about temps here, most of the precip in NNJ is starting as snow...snow rain mix farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Funny how the pattern and storm track is mimicking that of Jan, which targeted areas just to my s, then jumped to my N.......can't complain, though....would have been cool to to have jackpotted this season, but it beats last year. 28.8\26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Nothing exceeded 13" here...but one can't complain about 100 inches. Funny how the pattern and storm track is mimicking that of Jan, which targeted areas just to my s, then jumped to my N.......can't complain, though....would have been cool to to have jackpotted this season, but it beats last year. 28.8\26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Funny how the pattern and storm track is mimicking that of Jan, which targeted areas just to my s, then jumped to my N.......can't complain, though....would have been cool to to have jackpotted this season, but it beats last year. 28.8\26 You did pretty good in Jan 12 and Jan 27...you pretty much got a secondary jackpot in each one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You did pretty good in Jan 12 and Jan 27...you pretty much got a secondary jackpot in each one. Jan 27, yes (although the actual jackpot was sw of me, near Medfield, etc).....Jan 27 had some susbstantially higher totals in CT. I actually was more alluding to the seasonal jackpot zone....which will be split to my n and sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Big snowstorm on the GFS April 6-7.... dates that live in infamy (1982) Jan 27, yes (although the actual jackpot was sw of me, near Medfield, etc).....Jan 27 had some susbstantially higher totals in CT. I actually was more alluding to the seasonal jackpot zone....which will be split to my n and sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I don't have a good feeling about the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I don't have a good feeling about the Euro. I think it will look close to the GFS...hair s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I don't have a good feeling about the Euro. My gut proved to be true...Euro is ugly. South and sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 My gut proved to be true...Euro is ugly. South and sheared. Oh well....who cares; we'll see what happens. EURO grazed me @ the 11th hour on Jan 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Oh well....who cares; we'll see what happens. EURO grazed me @ the 11th hour on Jan 27. I cannot believe the model disagreement at 24-30 hours here...hopefully we end up on the friendly side of the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I cannot believe the model disagreement at 24-30 hours here...hopefully we end up on the friendly side of the spread. How does the Euro look on temps for those that live in the tropics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I cannot believe the model disagreement at 24-30 hours here...hopefully we end up on the friendly side of the spread. GFS is probably too far N, but I wouldn't bet my Kocin on it. Gun-to-shaft.....it's a throwback to Jan.....Ginxy's gale and Rev's sermon jackpot, but you and I still receive a solid advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 How does the Euro look on temps for those that live in the tropics? Mid levels are not an issue, but BL is touch-and-go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Mid levels are not an issue, but BL is touch-and-go. Thanks. Most starting with snow tonight and radar looks juiced, so just have to be hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS is probably too far N, but I wouldn't bet my Kocin on it. Gun-to-shaft.....it's a throwback to Jan.....Ginxy's gale and Rev's sermon jackpot, but you and I still receive a solid advisory event. Hopefully we see a nice bump by 12z tomorrow...but I'm about ready to stick a fork in this one for more than about 3-4"...its a shame because we are wasting a lot things here. The more suppressed solution has less impressive frontogenesis so even those that get the snow won't get blasted. A more robust northerly solution would increase the ML frontogenesis and get us good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The GFS and the NAM are absolutely identical now on qpf here.... both at .5" I figure that's good enough and now watch the radars. GFS is probably too far N, but I wouldn't bet my Kocin on it. Gun-to-shaft.....it's a throwback to Jan.....Ginxy's gale and Rev's sermon jackpot, but you and I still receive a solid advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hopefully we see a nice bump by 12z tomorrow...but I'm about ready to stick a fork in this one for more than about 3-4"...its a shame because we are wasting a lot things here. The more suppressed solution has less impressive frontogenesis so even those that get the snow won't get blasted. A more robust northerly solution would increase the ML frontogenesis and get us good. Close, but I wouldn't just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Close, but I wouldn't just yet. Well I said "im about ready"....so not totally ready yet. But the global trends tonight sucked for us. They weren't big but they were slightly in the wrong direction. Exact opposite of last night...NAM came in terrible last night and then all the globals bumped north...the NAM came in much better tonight and then the globals all went sour except the GFS. I'm starting to the think the NAM is the least useful model in the suite recently. It's had an absolutely brutal winter other than the Jan 12 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Well I said "im about ready"....so not totally ready yet. But the global trends tonight sucked for us. They weren't big but they were slightly in the wrong direction. Exact opposite of last night...NAM came in terrible last night and then all the globals bumped north...the NAM came in much better tonight and then the globals all went sour except the GFS. I'm starting to the think the NAM is the least useful model in the suite recently. It's had an absolutely brutal winter other than the Jan 12 storm. For once, you are behind the curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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