CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 LOL, who's the weenie observer at KBAX right now. 06010G16KT 3/4SM +SN OVC005 M01/M03 A3003 RMK AO2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You go from nothing to 1/2SM snow in about 15 miles over in MI right now. I wouldn't be shocked if it does that in parts of this area, later tomorrow. Like you said..hopefully it's not too powerful, because the ULL can really enhance the nrn edge. Right now it's the mother-in-law strength confluence...lets hope it tones down to just in law strength by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Slightly OT from this current event....but the CPC analogs keep listing early April 1996 for next weeks pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 OT but one heckuva squall line approaching the IA/IL border now racing east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 BOS got 8.5" on March 24, 1993...don't think that daily record is in jeopardy, but it was one of the bigger snowfalls in the final week of March for BOS. They only have one other daily record over 6" and that was 9.1" on Mar 29, 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS is goin' south some thru 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS is goin' south some thru 12 No surprise there, its been so far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 5 for them 8 for me 12 to the south coast! BOS got 8.5" on March 24, 1993...don't think that daily record is in jeopardy, but it was one of the bigger snowfalls in the final week of March for BOS. They only have one other daily record over 6" and that was 9.1" on Mar 29, 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS appears liquid for NYC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS is a tick south of 18z thru 24, but still pretty far north overall compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS appears liquid for NYC this run. DOH didn't look. Nice...all models coming together. If I had to pick one they're heading towards maybe the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS vs 18Z does not appear south at least comparing 33 to 0Z 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS appears liquid for NYC this run. has been that way pretty much from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 It still seems pretty robust with the QPF over NY State. Looks like some good WAA occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Decent SNE dump on GFS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS vs 18Z does not appear south at least comparing 33 to 0Z 27 To keep it simple on TD I'm just looking at 700mb RH. It's def a little south but I'm only out to 21 hours there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It still seems pretty robust with the QPF over NY State. Looks like some good WAA occurring. Its been stubborn as hell with that mid-level low being strong right along the NY/PA border and translating east pretty good. Its made some minor ticks to the south the past 2 runs, but nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Warning snows for Ray, Scott (both of them), Will, Kevin, me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Decent SNE dump on GFS tonight. Yeah it's actually depicting the deformation area a little better over the Berks and NY State. Good VVs into SNE at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Another very nice comma head over SNE from the GFS...its been showing it pretty consistently...more organized than the further south guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 gfs crushes ct ri and eastern mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 About as good as consensus as we're capapable of this year. To those either just a bit further north and out of the max zone or those of us on the south side that may still have some issues...when the world slips you a jeffrey stroke the furry wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 0z certainly colder here this run, compared to 12 and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS verbatim is 3-6 for many of us. That would put me in top 5 territory or at least very close with a bullet or 2 in ole man winter's gun still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 the good rev would enjoy this run, he looks to jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Another very nice comma head over SNE from the GFS...its been showing it pretty consistently...more organized than the further south guidance. Looks real nice at 06z. It's also got continued nice inflow at 850-950. It's probably enough to continue an OES like fetch off the water, and then maybe a little boost over the ORH hills. The atmosphere is cold too. We may lose some of the mid level RH, but it might be enough seeder-feeder and low level RH to keep the weenie snows going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Well...always fun to have another bite of the apple. Off to bed...full schedule in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Well...always fun to have another bite of the apple. Off to bed...full schedule in the AM. me too, I'm sticking with 3-6" down here...could go low or high with any last minute wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Congrats Ekster and the S ME hills on the inverted trough on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 the good rev would enjoy this run, he looks to jackpot Nice run for us too It's interesting that the GFS seems to be warmer than the NAM by far despite that the surface low track is not that much different. It could be that the NAM is a little slower and the high has more influence as the coastal gets cranking, but really not sure. At 24 hours, NAM has low in extreme SW corner of PA, whereas the GFS has already tracked it to Jebman territory in N VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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