Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah I think it's close to the 12z euro now. I think you had to expect this because the NAM was so far south. It's actually a nice hit for you. Thats what I figured based on todays breakdown of the euro. I'd expect to see the GFS dribble SE. Hey, Plympton Public closed Weds... Messenger home with the kids if Plymouth cancels too? Not enough beer in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I wouldn't say they've done a great job; their forecast discussions are interesting but sometimes they lack a bit of common sense. In the midst of the Boxing Day storm, they raised my forecast to 23" snow when it was clear we were in major subsidence and struggling to accumulate. Anyone looking at radar could see that NJ was going to get way more than the 23" forecast and Westchester way less. They were very conservative in the 1/27 storm and originally didn't buy a huge hit. They made a mistake in the 3/21 storm calling for rain when many in the 'burbs saw 1-3". This will be their biggest mistake of the season, I think. The point-and-click grid is obviously broad brushed and fails to account for mesoscale nuances such as CSI banding, thus it's a rather poor indicator of the overall skill level of an office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Like I said ..the NAM has the fight over my house all day tomorrow ...until finally the inverted trof or deformation (whatever it is) sets up overnight tomorrow night.... So I'll report in on how well it's doing. Its going to be a hell of a battle trying to hold off this system from going north. The confluence is very strong though and will put up a good fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 The point-and-click grid is obviously broad brushed and fails to account for meso scale nuances such as CSI banding, this it's a rather poor indicator of the overall skill level of an office. I don't know why people are obsessed with point and clicks. They should look at the ZFP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I don't know why people are obsessed with point and clicks. They should look at the ZFP. Point-click-fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah it's really a fine line for NYC. I think they have every right to be conservative for the city. Upton has just changed NYC back to mostly snow/frozen with some mixing during the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Point-click-fetish. I was talking about the snowfall map they updated, not point and click. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I was talking about the snowfall map they updated, not point and click. All that is is an illustration of the point-and-click. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The ZFP are generally buried in an obscure link on most NWS sites so probably almost nobody even looks at them anymore. It seems clear they wish to promote their point forecast product. I don't know why people are obsessed with point and clicks. They should look at the ZFP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The NAM has 950mb temps at 18z Friday of -5C. That might be a high below freezing here in the hills. Tough to do that late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 The ZFP are generally buried in an obscure link on most NWS sites so probably almost nobody even looks at them anymore. It seems clear they wish to promote their point forecast product. I like the ZFP much better and has the human touch of editing. Point and clicks sometimes look goofy with the wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 0z gfs in 45 minutes this sucks considering i have to be up at 5 for work!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 0z gfs in 45 minutes this sucks considering i have to be up at 5 for work!!! Eh, I'll save you the time...it will probably be a tick south of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 DST FTL.... Must have been some kind of "Southern" conspiracy to impose it on us in March. It was bad enough when they moved it from the last Sunday in April up to the first Sunday in April..... 0z gfs in 45 minutes this sucks considering i have to be up at 5 for work!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think the jackpot will be nearly identical to 2/27. Look for the Pike to the NH border as the winners down to about a PYM-PVD-BDL line. South of there will be crapola imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I like the ZFP much better and has the human touch of editing. Point and clicks sometimes look goofy with the wording. Ya think A chance of rain and snow before 7pm, a slight chance of snow between 7pm and 2am , slight chance of snow and sleet and rain between 2am and 4am, then a slight chance of rain after 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think the jackpot will be nearly identical to 2/27. Look for the Pike to the NH border as the winners down to about a PYM-PVD-BDL line. South of there will be crapola imho. I agree, but it's obviously playing a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Eh, I'll save you the time...it will probably be a tick south of 18z. This one has actually had no great surprises just a gentle drift towards the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah it sounds like a bunch of nonsense right. What's really funny is when some radio stations (that still use the NWS free product) read them on air. Ya think A chance of rain and snow before 7pm, a slight chance of snow between 7pm and 2am , slight chance of snow and sleet and rain between 2am and 4am, then a slight chance of rain after 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 This one has actually had no great surprises just a gentle drift towards the consensus. I'm sure there will be a couple of surprises for SNE, both good and bad perhaps. I'm just hoping for a few inches..I'm not expecting 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I agree, but it's obviously playing a hunch. Ponder this. Total snow from MET snow numbers is highest in BOS-PYM-BED-BVY-LWM-PSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Ponder this. Total snow from MET snow numbers is highest in BOS-PYM-BED-BVY-LWM-PSM. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Lol, the NAM clown map has Ray getting more than me and Kevin because of that inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I'm sure there will be a couple of surprises for SNE, both good and bad perhaps. I'm just hoping for a few inches..I'm not expecting 8-12. RGEM is playing some games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Lol, the NAM clown map has Ray getting more than me and Kevin because of that inverted trough Crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 RGEM is playing some games. RGEM appears to be a little south. 5mm dips just south of the MA/NH border and the 10mm line is further south cutting from the MA/CT border across RI into SE MA but south of Boston. It was north of that for the same 12hs on the other run. Not a big adjustment at all ,but a nudge south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 RGEM is playing some games. Didn't even need the follow up....whenever you leave anything open ended, nothing I'd like to hear will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Didn't even need the follow up....whenever you leave anything open ended, nothing I'd like to hear will follow. ray it's absolutely miniscule.....sure if we overlay the maps...but we're talking 24-36 hours and reallly not a big difference at all. GFS is probably moving south some this run, so long as we have no big outliers one way or the other all the things Will/Scott have been talking about come into play/focus Wednesday. I mean these are really pretty small changes towards consensus on the NAM/RGEM. Maybe mean is a better word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 If the confluence isn't so overbearing, then we could definitely see a very nice ML fronto band north of where models like to paint the qpf. You just don't want the confluence too overbearing as to shear everything out. But if we can get a stronger WAA push into the confluence, that will only mean more intense ML frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 If the confluence isn't so overbearing, then we could definitely see a very nice ML fronto band north of where models like to paint the qpf. You just don't want the confluence too overbearing as to shear everything out. But if we can get a stronger WAA push into the confluence, that will only mean more intense ML frontogenesis. You go from nothing to 1/2SM snow in about 15 miles over in MI right now. I wouldn't be shocked if it does that in parts of this area, later tomorrow. Like you said..hopefully it's not too powerful, because the ULL can really enhance the nrn edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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