HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 i really dont think so with this event!! You show me your ruler, I will show you mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 we had 2 inches on the ground yesterday and 1 inch on the roads in the middle of the day granted its a side street but i dont think it will have a problem at all I still have snow on my driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 we had 2 inches on the ground yesterday and 1 inch on the roads in the middle of the day granted its a side street but i dont think it will have a problem at all I just got an inch on the grass Monday. I have seen March snows where it accumualtes on my side of the street but not the other haha. I think since this is overnight we should do well. I hope I wake up to a WWA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You show me your ruler, I will show you mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Cool...there's my rinkydink inverted trough. We all win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I just got an inch on the grass Monday. I have seen March snows where it accumualtes on my side of the street but not the other haha. I think since this is overnight we should do well. I hope I wake up to a WWA! April 28-29, 1987 had 17" in ORH and about half of it occurred in the daytime on April 28...pretty remarkable. That is over a month later than the current sun angle. That tells you how heavily the snow was falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Cool...there's my rinkydink inverted trough. We all win. That is a cute, sneaky looking trough coming in around 42 - 45 Sloppy seconds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 That trough just keeps the light snows going from here to Ray/Will/Scott. It'd be funny if a late March cold thickness inverted trough lifted Ray past Kevin. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 That trough just keeps the light snows going from here to Ray/Will/Scott. It'd be funny if a late March cold thickness inverted trough lifted Ray past Kevin. lol That would make me very happy... not sure why. Kev deserves this winter, but Ray deserves it more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 When all is said and done, the NAM gets me to around .4" ...mainly by having a long period of light to moderate snow overnight and into Thursday. But tomorrow it holds the leading edge of steady snowfall literally over my head for about 10 hours. LOL ....I guess I can drive about 25 miles down I-88 at any point tomorrow and be in moderate snow if I follow the NAM verbatim. Wow, nice explosion of precip near SYR down to ITH/BGM at 27h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 This might deserve a 21 bun salute. "I agree 100%. New York City will see very significant accumulations. To say the National Weather Service forecasts have been rather poor lately would be an understatement. Their forecast for me for yesterday morning was for less than a half inch of snow with rain and a high of 51. We had 3 inches of snow, it never mixed with rain or sleet at all, and the high was 37 yesterday." Who was that, Analog96... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hopefully some of that latent heat release from the squall line punches the PV in the gut. Even looks like some TSSN possibly in areas of WI, right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah but it's heavier QPF spread out in 24 hrs. Show me a 6hr QPF omega bomb and then we can talk big amounts near NYC. Also, it gets very marginal near 00z. 850 temps hover near 0 or -1C which might mean it tips aloft in a layer above 850mb. Some of the heavier QPF in NJ also seems to occur with warmer temps aloft . Now what I could see happen is a narrow band of heavy QPF move into the area. This happens a lot in these shearing WAA setups. If that happened to ride across NYC..maybe they could get heavier amounts. However, I never would want to make my snow forecast based on supposed lift giving me a boost in the snow dept. I'd have to remain somewhat conservative. I could see parts of nrn LI getting lucky, but in order for it to really stick, we'll need 0.5SM snows (aka MDT snow). We also might have a huge gradient between areas in high elevations of NJ and areas just east of 287. I could even see a good gradient even between Dobbs Ferry and NYC. I might be bullish for the areas near 1000ft along the NY border and esp just north into the Catskills. We'll see what 00z does. If it comes in colder than NYC area has a shot, but there are some caution flags here. Its strange, I can see where the nyc posters are a little frustrated, okx calling for ALL rain in the city, I can absolutely understand minimal accumulations, but all rain? Seems a bit conservative, but who knows okx has done a great job this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hopefully some of that latent heat release from that squall line punches the PV in the gut. Even looks like some TSSN possibly in areas of WI. Tornado warnings in Iowa, Blizzard in Minn, Wisc. Neat battleground incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Lol...by the end of the system on the NAM, Ray has 0.50" of qpf, but it probably takes like 24-30 hours to fall, lol. 0.50" of qpf and 2-3" of slop probably. But hopefully it keeps trending more robust and we see a nice 6-8 hour period of heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hopefully some of that latent heat release from the squall line punches the PV in the gut. Even looks like some TSSN possibly in areas of WI, right now. Big line of severe storms in Iowa right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Well the srefs and nam are about as good as it would get for snow lovers in sw ct. Another tick north and mixing and bl temps become a real concern, is it done trending, I doubt it. SREFs and NAM are golden for us. I don't think anything is really trending though, the NAM has just come into line with the ECM since it was too far south. The SREF came south since it was too far north. We're reaching a consensus unless the 0z GFS throws a curveball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Tornado warnings in Iowa, Blizzard in Minn, Wisc. Neat battleground incoming Big line of severe storms in Iowa right now. Noyes mentioned this, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Big line of severe storms in Iowa right now. Look at all that moisture getting pushed into WI. It must be ripping near GreenBay and points nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 looking at the radar out of the midwest makes me think this storm will almost certainly be north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Will BOX be expanding advisories overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Its strange, I can see where the nyc posters are a little frustrated, okx calling for ALL rain in the city, I can absolutely understand minimal accumulations, but all rain? Seems a bit conservative, but who knows okx has done a great job this year. I wouldn't say they've done a great job; their forecast discussions are interesting but sometimes they lack a bit of common sense. In the midst of the Boxing Day storm, they raised my forecast to 23" snow when it was clear we were in major subsidence and struggling to accumulate. Anyone looking at radar could see that NJ was going to get way more than the 23" forecast and Westchester way less. They were very conservative in the 1/27 storm and originally didn't buy a huge hit. They made a mistake in the 3/21 storm calling for rain when many in the 'burbs saw 1-3". This will be their biggest mistake of the season, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Look at all that moisture getting pushed into WI. It must be ripping near GreenBay and points nw. Its going to be a hell of a battle trying to hold off this system from going north. The confluence is very strong though and will put up a good fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Big line of severe storms in Iowa right now. This is what I am banking on lift this one into my wheel houes, but that admittedly could be BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 SREFs and NAM are golden for us. I don't think anything is really trending though, the NAM has just come into line with the ECM since it was too far south. The SREF came south since it was too far north. We're reaching a consensus unless the 0z GFS throws a curveball. I'd rather bare the fruit of verification, than conscensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Its going to be a hell of a battle trying to hold off this system from going north. The confluence is very strong though and will put up a good fight. Yeah look at the regional radar up by the U.P. of Michigan. You can see it's having trouble moving north. That arc of moisture out in MI will probably be the slug trying to inch north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I wouldn't say they've done a great job; their forecast discussions are interesting but sometimes they lack a bit of common sense. In the midst of the Boxing Day storm, they raised my forecast to 23" snow when it was clear we were in major subsidence and struggling to accumulate. Anyone looking at radar could see that NJ was going to get way more than the 23" forecast and Westchester way less. They were very conservative in the 1/27 storm and originally didn't buy a huge hit. They made a mistake in the 3/21 storm calling for rain when many in the 'burbs saw 1-3". This will be their biggest mistake of the season, I think. NYC is walking a fine line...the NAM now has them changing over to either sleet or rain by 00z tomorrow night and then the mid-levels dry out by the time it gets cold enough to snow again...so maybe poor snow flakes to end it or drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I wouldn't say they've done a great job; their forecast discussions are interesting but sometimes they lack a bit of common sense. In the midst of the Boxing Day storm, they raised my forecast to 23" snow when it was clear we were in major subsidence and struggling to accumulate. Anyone looking at radar could see that NJ was going to get way more than the 23" forecast and Westchester way less. They were very conservative in the 1/27 storm and originally didn't buy a huge hit. They made a mistake in the 3/21 storm calling for rain when many in the 'burbs saw 1-3". This will be their biggest mistake of the season, I think. Well I disagree with you, I think they have done an excellent job, even the best in this business dont get it right all the time, and will hold any judgement until after the event. There are red flags for the metro, poor moisture in the snow growth regions, and most importantly for the metro and island are bl temps, mos is pretty warm. It will be a great battle, I just hope if okx prevails that those that are totally dismissing the forecast now come out and say job well done. Having said that going with an all rain forecast for nyc does seem odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 looking at the radar out of the midwest makes me think this storm will almost certainly be north i think however especially for central and eastern SNE the amount of confluence is the key and the angle of confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 NYC is walking a fine line...the NAM now has them changing over to either sleet or rain by 00z tomorrow night and then the mid-levels dry out by the time it gets cold enough to snow again...so maybe poor snow flakes to end it or drizzle. Yeah it's really a fine line for NYC. I think they have every right to be conservative for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.