Rocket Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Are the trucks going to be out in this area during this storm or are we just going to see wet roads again (like the last storm)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Blech at 24... toss it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 NAM finally gets the good lift on here at 03Z. Good distance north of 18z with the forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 wow, srefs sure are cold and snowy down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 NAM goes from VA to OH in one run, with the surface low. broad area of low pressure though. In the last 12-18 hours it's moved the QPF shield...max amounts a few miles north just east of Detroit. Not much of a shift really, pretty steadfast but those 10-50 miles would obviously be huge with this cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Wow, nice explosion of precip near SYR down to ITH/BGM at 27h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Blech at 24... toss it... set up at 24 looks def better to me chief edit. and watch it smoke ORH S hrs 32-38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 A little better at least...meh gfs/euro compromse...leaning towards euro. 2-5" of nightime spring snow on the way tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 surface low stronger and further nw then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 If temps are cold enough NAM would tatoo parts of SCT/LI/SRI etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 NAM finally gets the good lift on here at 03Z. Good distance north of 18z with the forcing. The mid-level low is stronger and further north...def trended better this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 30hr AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Wow, nice explosion of precip near SYR down to ITH/BGM at 27h. Yeah it has that deformation area showing up nicely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 nam looking good!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 That second batch might save me... Just watched Matt Noyes, gave me a generous 5" ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 broad area of low pressure though. In the last 12-18 hours it's moved the QPF shield...max amounts a few miles north just east of Detroit. Not much of a shift really, pretty steadfast but those 10-50 miles would obviously be huge with this cutoff. It's much better though with the WAA and mid levels lows which is important. Checl out hr 30 at H7. Nice area of lift across the srn tier of NY right into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 from hrs 24 to 30 confluent flow shifts from w/wnw- e/ese to W/wsw-e/ene and it is also less confluence on the 0z nam v. 18z nam. now nam can increase people's confidence in this thing....now let's get globals to get stronger ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Good 850 ATL inflow as well coming into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's much better though with the WAA and mid levels lows which is important. Checl out hr 30 at H7. Nice area of lift across the srn tier of NY right into SNE. Oh no doubt, it's very close to croaking a good portion of CT (already is really), LI, SRI and SE MA. that said from what I read earlier isn't this pretty much the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 from hrs 24 to 30 confluent flow shifts from w/wnw- e/ese to W/wsw-e/ene and it is also less confluence on the 0z nam v. 18z nam. now nam can increase people's confidence in this thing....now let's get globals to get stronger ! This allows me to sleep with peace tonight, while Rev Kev tosses and turns "noooo!!! the gfs...toss it...toss it... nooooo!" Elevation will be pretty key for a lot of folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Oh no doubt, it's very close to croaking a good portion of CT (already is really), LI, SRI and SE MA. that said from what I read earlier isn't this pretty much the 12z Euro? Yeah I think it's close to the 12z euro now. I think you had to expect this because the NAM was so far south. It's actually a nice hit for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hey, Plympton Public closed Weds... Messenger home with the kids if Plymouth cancels too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The NAM seems like the 12z euro qpf distribution wise. It has about .3-.4 in my area...mostly overnight so it should stick on the roads fine I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 i really dont think so with this event!! This allows me to sleep with peace tonight, while Rev Kev tosses and turns "noooo!!! the gfs...toss it...toss it... nooooo!" Elevation will be pretty key for a lot of folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hey, Plympton Public closed Weds... Messenger home with the kids if Plymouth cancels too? Maybe a delay thursday in parts of the area...but tomorrow...really?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 As per Todd Gutner on WBZ 4 bloggie: 9:44PM Well the pattern is reverting back to Mid-Winter so it’s only fitting that the models revert back to their Mid-Winter form too. Basically the NAM and GFS have flip-flopped with the GFS now the most robust model and the NAM backing off pushing the precip mostly well south of us. As of now, I still prefer the lighter amounts…not as light as the NAM but more like the EURO. Obviously, this needs to be watched very closely…especially if we get the well-defined closed low at 850mb like the GFS is depicting, that would create significant overrunning precip and much higher amounts. But with the primary vort going so far to our south, it’s hard to believe the surface and 850mb low getting close enough to us for the heavier snows. Regardless, the timing is good for Springtime snow accumulation…at night so roads this time around will likely get snow-covered or slushy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 i really dont think so with this event!! Elevation is always important this time of year...it will be key again if it doesn't snow hard. The one thing that will help lower areas is that the bulk is at night so it erases the sun angle issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Are the trucks going to be out in this area during this storm or are we just going to see wet roads again (like the last storm)? I was wondering the same if road sfc temps could be cooled enough to stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Well the srefs and nam are about as good as it would get for snow lovers in sw ct. Another tick north and mixing and bl temps become a real concern, is it done trending, I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 we had 2 inches on the ground yesterday and 1 inch on the roads in the middle of the day granted its a side street but i dont think it will have a problem at all The NAM seems like the 12z euro qpf distribution wise. It has about .3-.4 in my area...mostly overnight so it should stick on the roads fine I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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