Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Ok ..be back for the NAM.. Lets see if it will pull the .25 line down to a BGM to Dobbs Ferry line this run. LOL That's how I'm able to pull off the AK trips. Since my closest friend lives there and has a plane I can have the $20,000 dream ski trip for the price of air fare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I wonder if the NAM will come north...last night it was terrible and so were the SREF, but then all the global models came north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Just catching up with things today... Hopefully the synoptic snows pan out for you guys in SNE. I'd feel less guilty cheering for a N trend with a later system down the road. I see the EC/Ukie are both trying to throw me a little bone of inv trough snows now like the GFS had. Do you guys think it's still bogus or do I have a shot? I need 1.5" for 100" on the season and I'll take any crap system at this point to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 DST means that i'll only see the nam before I got to sleep tonight, so it better trend north. LOL. I expect it to, its still a far southern outlier. I'd feel more confident in a 3-5" call here, if the nam decided to give me more then a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I agree with a lot of this....except the 12" totals, lol. You don't think someone with good elevation in the Catskills or NW NJ could see a foot, Will? I could see a narrow but heavy band for some..maybe even up by Nate's area, but unless we have some really heavy precip rates, it's gonna be hard for the city to get a couple of inches..especially the southern boroughs. Don't we have to see some heavy banding to get the QPF advertised? The ECM is about .8" QPF, the NAM is 1.25" QPF, and the GFS has some parts of the Hudson Valley up to 1.5" QPF. Aren't we basically guaranteed to see some dynamic cooling with the storm being this wet? This might deserve a 21 bun salute. "I agree 100%. New York City will see very significant accumulations. To say the National Weather Service forecasts have been rather poor lately would be an understatement. Their forecast for me for yesterday morning was for less than a half inch of snow with rain and a high of 51. We had 3 inches of snow, it never mixed with rain or sleet at all, and the high was 37 yesterday." They did screw up Sunday night here, they had all rain for my forecast with temps near 40F. We had heavy snow at 32F that morning, some places saw 3", I got 1.25"... They have also handled this event weirdly. They are currently forecasting .5" of snow for Central Park and only 2" here. They actually made the forecast warmer at the 4pm update even though all the models have trended towards a better snowstorm; changing me from all snow tomorrow to snow/rain mix. They also never even had any accumulating snow in the forecast until 4am today even though I'd thought for days it looked probable for the NW elevated 'burbs. I mean it's not like we haven't had snow in March before, this isn't RIC or something. LI and NYC are not even under an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Winning! In terms of always wanting the model with the highest qpf to verify..... LOL. By 18z 3/23 and I know the RUC has issues but the problems start early....it's pretty obvious we're going to see a compromise from both NCEP models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You don't think someone with good elevation in the Catskills or NW NJ could see a foot, Will? I suppose there's a remote shot. But I want to start seeing some big 6 hourly qpf totals...and we havent been seeing them with maybe the NAM being the exception, but even most of its very heavy qpf is south of the R/S line. Most of the 6 hourly totals we have seen have been in the 0.25-0.35 range. With marginal temps and certainly during the day time hours, you aren't going to rapidly accumulate snow if its 3/4 SN-. I'm sure Slide Mountain will not have to worry at 2700 feet, lol...but most areas will have to deal with it. We'll see if it starts ramping it up over the next couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 lol. Had cloudy skies with flurries all day but that's it. I'm hopeful tomorrow night delivers the goods. Eh, really as long as people have fun who cares. My problem is I'm an adrenaline junkie and kicks just keep getting harder to find .lol Are you on the road But are they bringing you piece of mind? I've been on the road since 1/12. I had to enjoy most of this big, big winter vicariously, though I made a close pass in late Feb, catching a couple of snow events in Long Island and Watertown, NY, but nothing like all of SNE saw in January. I'll be back in SNE for next week, so I'm hoping March goes out like a lion. I've been prancing about in Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina for the past three days in shorts and T-shirt, noting the incipient leaf out. Oh, and my A/C needs to be recharged. Edit: "piece" of mind???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I wonder if the NAM will come north...last night it was terrible and so were the SREF, but then all the global models came north. I'm just guessing but I think the RUC would point towards a bigger lean towards the NAM, but still a compromise which would mean it's coming north some. GFS will have been too fast with the s/w approaching NW MO at 18z etc....but to what degree the nuisances effect things. I'm not sure but I'm expecting a trimjob from the GFS at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Slide is actually 4200 feet, but maybe the obs is taken at 2700..... Another world at 4k that's for sure. I have hiked that several times...... I suppose there's a remote shot. But I want to start seeing some big 6 hourly qpf totals...and we havent been seeing them with maybe the NAM being the exception, but even most of its very heavy qpf is south of the R/S line. Most of the 6 hourly totals we have seen have been in the 0.25-0.35 range. With marginal temps and certainly during the day time hours, you aren't going to rapidly accumulate snow if its 3/4 SN-. I'm sure Slide Mountain will not have to worry at 2700 feet, lol...but most areas will have to deal with it. We'll see if it starts ramping it up over the next couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 You don't think someone with good elevation in the Catskills or NW NJ could see a foot, Will? Don't we have to see some heavy banding to get the QPF advertised? The ECM is about .8" QPF, the NAM is 1.25" QPF, and the GFS has some parts of the Hudson Valley up to 1.5" QPF. Aren't we basically guaranteed to see some dynamic cooling with the storm being this wet? They did screw up Sunday night here, they had all rain for my forecast with temps near 40F. We had heavy snow at 32F that morning, some places saw 3", I got 1.25"... They have also handled this event weirdly. They are currently forecasting .5" of snow for Central Park and only 2" here. They actually made the forecast warmer at the 4pm update even though all the models have trended towards a better snowstorm; changing me from all snow tomorrow to snow/rain mix. They also never even had any accumulating snow in the forecast until 4am today even though I'd thought for days it looked probable for the NW elevated 'burbs. I mean it's not like we haven't had snow in March before, this isn't RIC or something. LI and NYC are not even under an advisory. Yeah but it's heavier QPF spread out in 24 hrs. Show me a 6hr QPF omega bomb and then we can talk big amounts near NYC. Also, it gets very marginal near 00z. 850 temps hover near 0 or -1C which might mean it tips aloft in a layer above 850mb. Some of the heavier QPF in NJ also seems to occur with warmer temps aloft . Now what I could see happen is a narrow band of heavy QPF move into the area. This happens a lot in these shearing WAA setups. If that happened to ride across NYC..maybe they could get heavier amounts. However, I never would want to make my snow forecast based on supposed lift giving me a boost in the snow dept. I'd have to remain somewhat conservative. I could see parts of nrn LI getting lucky, but in order for it to really stick, we'll need 0.5SM snows (aka MDT snow). We also might have a huge gradient between areas in high elevations of NJ and areas just east of 287. I could even see a good gradient even between Dobbs Ferry and NYC. I might be bullish for the areas near 1000ft along the NY border and esp just north into the Catskills. We'll see what 00z does. If it comes in colder than NYC area has a shot, but there are some caution flags here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 But are they bringing you piece of mind? I've been on the road since 1/12. I had to enjoy most of this big, big winter vicariously, though I made a close pass in late Feb, catching a couple of snow events in Long Island and Watertown, NY, but nothing like all of SNE saw in January. I'll be back in SNE for next week, so I'm hoping March goes out like a lion. I've been prancing about in Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina for the past three days in shorts and T-shirt, noting the incipient leaf out. Oh, and my A/C needs to be recharged. LOL, you're old enough to get that one. You certainly get around. I can't even imagine shorts and T-shirt weather it's been so long. If you're around in Late April/May we'll have to get together and fish. A/C, my god that's scary. GN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 SREFs look about the same as both 09z and 15z.. They might have brought the 0.25" line in S NH a tick south to basically the MA/NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 SREFs looked like they held serve with an ever so slight south of east gradient to the QPF shield. They did juice up just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 C'mon NAM I believe in you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 i know this is probably stupid to say but looking at the first 6 hours of the nam it looks like its going to be north of 18z but i may be getting ahead of myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 CT/RI getting some early love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 i know this is probably stupid to say but looking at the first 6 hours of the nam it looks like its going to be north of 18z but i may be getting ahead of myself breathe NECN map showed SW berks and NW ct getting it decent as well as rev...ginx....cold miser over to the snowman in n. cumberland. ORH county had a decent total as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 C'mon NAM I believe in you! I do not believe in the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 So far out to 12 hours and looks ok for eastern NY near GC 27.1F here btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I do not believe in the NAM. This NAM run is looking a little bit better I think... Did you believe before Dave Roberts stole second? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 nam is about to bump north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It brought the northern edge of the precip further north through 12 hours. Not by a huge margin...but some vs 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Comparing the 18z and 00z looks almost the same through 18 hour. I don't think they'll be a big movement on the NAM this run either way, but well see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Comparing the 18z and 00z looks almost the same through 18 hour. I don't think they'll be a big movement on the NAM this run either way, but well see... two main shiels of precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 What is going on in Tenn and W Virginia at 18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Through 21h, its definitely north of 18z...but that isn't really saying a lot since 18z was so flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 gfs nam coming to agreement Through 21h, its definitely north of 18z...but that isn't really saying a lot since 18z was so flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Through 21h, its definitely north of 18z...but that isn't really saying a lot since 18z was so flat. by 21z wed it's still leagues different than even the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 NAM goes from VA to OH in one run, with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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