Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Now. Right - i was late to the show on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Looks cool on the website. I didn't realize it had become such a full resort,...even has an indoor water park. Every kid today needs the indoor water park. The kids here go up to the Six Flags Great Escape Indoor WP in Lake George for their birthday parties etc. Howe Caverns near here is gonna build one I hear. Greek Peak FTW I thought that place was the s*** when I was 7 yrs old. BTW, 952' vertical according to their site. Certainly not up to your lofty standards of course, I'm sure. Edit: slow on the draw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Didn't one of the other pros say not to use the GEFS inside of xx hour because of the inferior resolution? Or did I misremember that. I'm not using it to take QPF verbatim, just noting any trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's really in NE that the GFSand NAM diverge so massively on qpf. Around here the GFS is .5" and the NAM is .25". In NE though the NAM dive bombs the .1" line south..... I'm not using it to take QPF verbatim, just noting any trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's really in NE that the GFSand NAM diverge so massively on qpf. Around here the GFS is .5" and the NAM is .25". In NE though the NAM dive bombs the .1" line south..... It's because of the trajectory. The NAM remains more wnw-ese, while the GFS tries to push the WAA further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 In this thread it does...NAM virtually whiffs all of SNE for any meaningful snow except the SW third of CT. There's some issues with snow for LI...I'd probably go heavier than 1" but precip rates will mean a lot of difference between non-accumulating or very slowly accumulating snow above freezing and a heavier snow that sticks at or below freezing. The models have been inconsistent in showing more defined area of heavy precip. ECMWF doesn't have any 6 hour panel with more than about 0.30-0.35" of qpf. That's not very heavy. Also the ECMWF gets the 0C 850 line up into S LI by 42h...so there's certainly a possibility of mixing in NYC and LI at some point if that is correct as mixing will likely occur out in front of the 0C line by a bit. If something colder like the NAM verifies, then it would definitely be a lot of snow, but they just can't hang their hat on the NAM. I was just talking about where the mixing line occurs, not the difference in placement of QPF. I really like W Mass and NW CT for some impressive totals, as both the 18z GFS and 18z NAM get some good banding up there. The NAM seems like it might be doing its "sharp cut-off/QPF bomb" thing where it hammers one area at the cost of everyone in the periphery. How much are you forecasting for ORH? I'd probably go with 4-6" as a consensus point but would be worried about the 18z GFS trending south even more and ultimately leaving you hung out to dry. In terms of the mixing, I often find there's a sharp gradient btwn the North Shore and South Shore of LI during overrunning events, as well as Westchester/SW CT and NYC itself. Often the northern areas receive double what the southern areas do, as both a product of less urban heat island, more elevation, and more distance from the ocean. I'm still thinking the City could get smoked but I'd be less confident towards SE LI and much more confident in NNJ/E PA/SE NY/SW CT where amounts could approach 12" IMO. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Three cumulus clouds just passed over your house, you probably got at least two inches from that to jump start storm totals. lol. Had cloudy skies with flurries all day but that's it. I'm hopeful tomorrow night delivers the goods. Greek Peak FTW I thought that place was the s*** when I was 7 yrs old. BTW, 952' vertical according to their site. Certainly not up to your lofty standards of course, I'm sure. Edit: slow on the draw Eh, really as long as people have fun who cares. My problem is I'm an adrenaline junkie and kicks just keep getting harder to find .lol Are you on the road? Right - i was late to the show on that one A rare occasion. There must be a woman clouding your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Feels weird tracking a snowstorm on the other side of the time change. Odd that the RUC looks so much more like the 18z NAM already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hey CoastalWX, wtf is going on with AK? Where are the storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Feels weird tracking a snowstorm on the other side of the time change. Odd that the RUC looks so much more like the 18z NAM already. You're trying hard to make this threat fall apart. Just stop, it's futile. Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I was just talking about where the mixing line occurs, not the difference in placement of QPF. I really like W Mass and NW CT for some impressive totals, as both the 18z GFS and 18z NAM get some good banding up there. The NAM seems like it might be doing its "sharp cut-off/QPF bomb" thing where it hammers one area at the cost of everyone in the periphery. How much are you forecasting for ORH? I'd probably go with 4-6" as a consensus point but would be worried about the 18z GFS trending south even more and ultimately leaving you hung out to dry. In terms of the mixing, I often find there's a sharp gradient btwn the North Shore and South Shore of LI during overrunning events, as well as Westchester/SW CT and NYC itself. Often the northern areas receive double what the southern areas do, as both a product of less urban heat island, more elevation, and more distance from the ocean. I'm still thinking the City could get smoked but I'd be less confident towards SE LI and much more confident in NNJ/E PA/SE NY/SW CT where amounts could approach 12" IMO. Thoughts? I agree with a lot of this....except the 12" totals, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 lol. Had cloudy skies with flurries all day but that's it. I'm hopeful tomorrow night delivers the goods. Eh, really as long as people have fun who cares. My problem is I'm an adrenaline junkie and kicks just keep getting harder to find .lol Are you on the Rippin and ridin, phew tore up the Powdah today, tons of runs ski down, right to lift, lots of stashes even glades for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Will or anyone how much qpf did the euro show for here? Like .3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The Austrian or Swiss Alps. I don't downhill ski, but I've been to some impressive resort areas there...walked on residual snowfields in July in Northern Italy. My problem is I'm an adrenaline junkie and kicks just keep getting harder to find .lol Are you on the road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Will or anyone how much qpf did the euro show for here? Like .3? A bit more than that...probably closer to 0.40" for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Rippin and ridin, phew tore up the Powdah today, tons of runs ski down, right to lift, lots of stashes even glades for a while. NICE! Glad to hear it Ginx. A year later and you're tearing it up. Good for you. You'll sleep like a log tonight. Nothing better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yep 6 months plus till the first flakes on the peaks of N. NE and NY... just a little several month stretch of warm wx to put up with.... You're trying hard to make this threat fall apart. Just stop, it's futile. Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 A bit more than that...probably closer to 0.40" for us. Nice, thanks. I think a 2-5" advisory would be a good call for here as of now. What's your call? Maybe I can get in on the advisory by a few miles instead of missing it to the north by a few miles like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The Austrian or Swiss Alps. I don't downhill ski, but I've been to some impressive resort areas there...walked on residual snowfields in July in Northern Italy. They've got nothing on AK. I've had a few great trips to the Alps, great ski culture but it's so damn expensive. I'd do the youth hostel thing but I'm not really a "youth" anymore.lol Just feel like one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yep 6 months plus till the first flakes on the peaks of N. NE and NY... just a little several month stretch of warm wx to put up with.... Man, you and I think alike. Just have to get through the interminable Summer months and the fun will start anew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 NICE! Glad to hear it Ginx. A year later and you're tearing it up. Good for you. You'll sleep like a log tonight. Nothing better. Day three and each day the skiing and countryside have gotten better. Tons of snow here, peaks are really loaded. Stopped at my epic cliff disaster area, man that is a long way down, lucky lucky lucky. Actually choked up a little understanding how lucky I am to be able to ski by it again. Good luck with the snow tomorrow, hopefully you break ten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You're trying hard to make this threat fall apart. Just stop, it's futile. Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. No, the nam/ruc are the first two...the GFS is a twiggie different with heights over PA/NY even by tonight. Different with the individual s/ws coming through the Dakotas and overall.....not very good. Differences further through the run are even more towards the NAM. Keep in mind I'm not saying it is the NAM, but the GFS may have had a bad day. Charlie Sheen type, I'm a warlock and drink tiger blood day. Also note there is a 1 hour offset obviously with the 23z RUC only going to 12 hours. Best I could do on the same sized image as the NCEP site the RUC is fruity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 In this thread it does...NAM virtually whiffs all of SNE for any meaningful snow except the SW third of CT. There's some issues with snow for LI...I'd probably go heavier than 1" but precip rates will mean a lot of difference between non-accumulating or very slowly accumulating snow above freezing and a heavier snow that sticks at or below freezing. The models have been inconsistent in showing more defined area of heavy precip. ECMWF doesn't have any 6 hour panel with more than about 0.30-0.35" of qpf. That's not very heavy. Also the ECMWF gets the 0C 850 line up into S LI by 42h...so there's certainly a possibility of mixing in NYC and LI at some point if that is correct as mixing will likely occur out in front of the 0C line by a bit. If something colder like the NAM verifies, then it would definitely be a lot of snow, but they just can't hang their hat on the NAM. I tried posting something about this earlier, but got no response in their thread. Probably because it's negative. I think it's going to be hard in the city to accumulate..perhaps even into LI and near and south of I-80 on 500'. Even the SREFs get 850 temps near 0C at 21z with maybe 0.4" falling. and you know it probably is a little warmer aloft too. You already noted the 6hr QPF, so we don't exactly have an omega bomb down there to offset some daylight. I could see a narrow but heavy band for some..maybe even up by Nate's area, but unless we have some really heavy precip rates, it's gonna be hard for the city to get a couple of inches..especially the southern boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah I'm lucky in that I can stay with my cousin (free) in southern Germany and be in the Algau section of the German/Austrian Alps in about an hour. Now if only I was a downhill skiier. ..but I'd be afraid with my past knee issues and at age 45 now to start. They've got nothing on AK. I've had a few great trips to the Alps, great ski culture but it's so damn expensive. I'd do the youth hostel thing but I'm not really a "youth" anymore.lol Just feel like one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Day three and each day the skiing and countryside have gotten better. Tons of snow here, peaks are really loaded. Stopped at my epic cliff disaster area, man that is a long way down, lucky lucky lucky. Actually choked up a little understanding how lucky I am to be able to ski by it again. Good luck with the snow tomorrow, hopefully you break ten. Nothing like getting back on the horse after you've been thrown. Hope you've got the brain bucket on. As for the snow, I'm having a battle of wills with Messenger. He is pulling South, me North. I've got Ullr on my side though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hey CoastalWX, wtf is going on with AK? Where are the storms? Gonna be quiet for awhile, until perhaps later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Winning! In terms of always wanting the model with the highest qpf to verify..... No, the nam/ruc are the first two...the GFS is a twiggie different with heights over PA/NY even by tonight. Different with the individual s/ws coming through the Dakotas and overall.....not very good. Differences further through the run are even more towards the NAM. Keep in mind I'm not saying it is the NAM, but the GFS may have had a bad day. Charlie Sheen type, I'm a warlock and drink tiger blood day. Also note there is a 1 hour offset obviously with the 23z RUC only going to 12 hours. Best I could do on the same sized image as the NCEP site the RUC is fruity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 This might deserve a 21 bun salute. "I agree 100%. New York City will see very significant accumulations. To say the National Weather Service forecasts have been rather poor lately would be an understatement. Their forecast for me for yesterday morning was for less than a half inch of snow with rain and a high of 51. We had 3 inches of snow, it never mixed with rain or sleet at all, and the high was 37 yesterday." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah I'm lucky in that I can stay with my cousin (free) in southern Germany and be in the Algau section of the German/Austrian Alps in about an hour. Now if only I was a downhill skiier. ..but I'd be afraid with my past knee issues and at age 45 now to start. That's how I'm able to pull off the AK trips. Since my closest friend lives there and has a plane I can have the $20,000 dream ski trip for the price of air fare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Gonna be quiet for awhile, until perhaps later next week. Still a ton of snow there but of course I'm looking for the 30-40" overnight snowfalls. Just got off the phone with my friend and he was saying they just lost a skier to an avalanche a few days ago in the Talkeetna range. Serious business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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