Weather Girl 22 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 will climatology help it move north again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 will climatology help it move north again? Can only come so far north. Suppression depression for some. Someone here will be on the outside looking in either along the pike or along the border north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Euro is not pretty, back to suppression similar to 12z yesterday. I think in the end it's a SNH south hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I think in the end it's a SNH south hit GEFS being well north is certainly a good sign, but on the flip side, a lot of the OP models (UK/GGEM/Euro) are all pretty far south. NAM is kind of in between and a very good hit for south of the pike. We'll see what the Euro ensembles do...but we probably want to get this back north on the foreigns pretty quickly since we are only 60-72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I have to admit it doesn't look great for me right now. I'll give it until 12z tomorrow to trend north. Channel 7 has rain showers (lol) wednesday night while channel 4 says light to mod snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I have to admit it doesn't look great for me right now. I'll give it until 12z tomorrow to trend north. Channel 7 has rain showers (lol) wednesday night while channel 4 says light to mod snow storm. Where are they getting rain showers from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Where are they getting rain showers from? I have no idea, hence the lol. Here is their forecast. Wednesday: Sun gives way to clouds by afternoon. Highs in the low 40s. Light rain showers are possible at night---especially south of the MA Pike. Thursday: Mostly cloudy skies with rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 GEFS being well north is certainly a good sign, but on the flip side, a lot of the OP models (UK/GGEM/Euro) are all pretty far south. NAM is kind of in between and a very good hit for south of the pike. We'll see what the Euro ensembles do...but we probably want to get this back north on the foreigns pretty quickly since we are only 60-72 hours out. I certainly don't like being in the NAM bullseye..but given that SE ridge is there ...we should be fine. I don't think is a NNE deal though..This trends far enough north a good SNE and maybe part of CNE hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Disheartening to see the euro, however still has a decent band of RH overhead, but that can only do so much if lift is meager. I'd like to see a bump north by 12z tomorrow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NCEP is biting on the progressive vibe as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NCEP is biting on the progressive vibe as well... Euro was too far south a weekend or so ago....but it was all alone on that one. We shall see. Tonight should lock the solutions together but I don't see it being much different than the NAM/GFS type deal, in that ballpark, Pike south is the best bet...thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 NCEP is biting on the progressive vibe as well... I'm still going to give it 24 hrs, as we've seen this before. A little unusual to see the euro as more suppressed in this scenario, but we'll see if the confluence is modeled to be a little less..or that s/w going under sne comes in a little stronger. I don't think it will be as paltry as the euro shows, but can't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The fact that the UKMET is significantly more amplified than the Euro, and that >90% RH at 700 mb extends up to the MA/NH border on the Euro are both red flags to me. I would expect a northward trend. The heavy overrunning QPF may still only graze SNE like in the 2/21 event, but high ratios as well as a fairly far north deformation/saturated layer are signals to still expect a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The fact that the UKMET is significantly more amplified than the Euro, and that >90% RH at 700 mb extends up to the MA/NH border on the Euro are both red flags to me. I would expect a northward trend. The heavy overrunning QPF may still only graze SNE like in the 2/21 event, but high ratios as well as a fairly far north deformation/saturated layer are signals to still expect a decent event. Is your location really in Isreal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nice jump north on the 15z SREFs compared to 09z. About 50 miles N with the 0.50" 24h qpf contour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nice jump north on the 15z SREFs compared to 09z. About 50 miles N with the 0.50" 24h qpf contour You know and I know the SREF's whack it at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 The fact that the UKMET is significantly more amplified than the Euro, and that >90% RH at 700 mb extends up to the MA/NH border on the Euro are both red flags to me. I would expect a northward trend. The heavy overrunning QPF may still only graze SNE like in the 2/21 event, but high ratios as well as a fairly far north deformation/saturated layer are signals to still expect a decent event. It actually has a 100% contour over the MA/NH border. The Ukie did have a nice mid level look to it. The old mid level RH rule only goes so far, but it is nice to see signaled. There does seem to be a pretty big disconnect between the mid level lows and the surface low...even 850mb low. Hopefully we can get something a little more concentrated by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yes, I grew up on Long Island and worked in meteorology for a few years before moving to Israel. I still find NE snowstorms fascinating, and they're a lot more frequent than winter storms in Israel. We get big snow storms (10"+) about once every 10 years in Jerusalem (http://www.angelfire.com/mb/batzdir/SNOWTAB1.htm), but most winter storms here are nailbiters with sfc temps just cold enough for snow at night, rain during the day (due to the strong solar radiation at 32 degrees latitutde) and huge puddles underneath the slushy snow in the streets. Is your location really in Isreal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'm still going to give it 24 hrs, as we've seen this before. A little unusual to see the euro as more suppressed in this scenario, but we'll see if the confluence is modeled to be a little less..or that s/w going under sne comes in a little stronger. I don't think it will be as paltry as the euro shows, but can't rule it out. Usually ... a 50/50 low weakens as the wave approaches. It is no uncommon for the models to retard the dominance of such a feature until closer in, and then fill it just enough to lift the confluence axis up and bringing the bag of action farther N. Not every time... some of those PD storms that were relegated only to the MA and dusted the S Coast while dim orb sun shown over ORH back in the day did not. It's not an overwhelmingly intense system as is, so just about all the influence it has on southern new england is really going to come down to how much that 50/50-like like dominates. The other thing is that taken for what it is worth my personal observation of the Euro is that it has had some stinker outlooks as close in as a mere 72 hours this season. Not sure what the deal is, but last year, D5 in was a slam dunk - not even close this year. I remember a couple GL cutters that ended up on the NJ shore this season, and I remember it was way out to sea with the Dec 26 event for quite some time. I don't know. Other times it has been its usual clubber lang over the other models, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 HPC has also taken note of the tendency for the Euro to be more inconsistent in the day 3-7 range than before the upgrade in resolution last summer. Usually ... a 50/50 low weakens as the wave approaches. It is no uncommon for the models to retard the dominance of such a feature until closer in, and then fill it just enough to lift the confluence axis up and bringing the bag of action farther N. Not every time... some of those PD storms that were relegated only to the MA and dusted the S Coast while dim orb sun shown over ORH back in the day did not. It's not an overwhelmingly intense system as is, so just about all the influence it has on southern new england is really going to come down to how much that 50/50-like like dominates. The other thing is that taken for what it is worth my personal observation of the Euro is that it has had some stinker outlooks as close in as a mere 72 hours this season. Not sure what the deal is, but last year, D5 in was a slam dunk - not even close this year. I remember a couple GL cutters that ended up on the NJ shore this season, and I remember it was way out to sea with the Dec 26 event for quite some time. I don't know. Other times it has been its usual clubber lang over the other models, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yes, I grew up on Long Island and worked in meteorology for a few years before moving to Israel. I still find NE snowstorms fascinating, and they're a lot more frequent than winter storms in Israel. We get big snow storms (10"+) about once every 10 years in Jerusalem (http://www.angelfire...ir/SNOWTAB1.htm), but most winter storms here are nailbiters with sfc temps just cold enough for snow at night, rain during the day (due to the strong solar radiation at 32 degrees latitutde) and huge puddles underneath the slushy snow in the streets. Neat - any met jobs open there haha. Lotkes rule! Summers? I think it is primarily hot and dry there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Perhaps an interesting NAM run rolling in as we type... This one appears to be getting a denser sampling in the initializaiton over southern CA and NV - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nice jump north on the 15z SREFs compared to 09z. About 50 miles N with the 0.50" 24h qpf contour Yeah, the more I look at this it is reminding me of the storm in late January that just went on and happened inspite of the models doing everything imaginably possible to fumble around and f up the outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Usually ... a 50/50 low weakens as the wave approaches. It is no uncommon for the models to retard the dominance of such a feature until closer in, and then fill it just enough to lift the confluence axis up and bringing the bag of action farther N. Not every time... some of those PD storms that were relegated only to the MA and dusted the S Coast while dim orb sun shown over ORH back in the day did not. It's not an overwhelmingly intense system as is, so just about all the influence it has on southern new england is really going to come down to how much that 50/50-like like dominates. The other thing is that taken for what it is worth my personal observation of the Euro is that it has had some stinker outlooks as close in as a mere 72 hours this season. Not sure what the deal is, but last year, D5 in was a slam dunk - not even close this year. I remember a couple GL cutters that ended up on the NJ shore this season, and I remember it was way out to sea with the Dec 26 event for quite some time. I don't know. Other times it has been its usual clubber lang over the other models, too. That's true, it has coughed up a few hairballs this winter. In any case, the euro ensembles are just a hair more amped up than the op, but nothing too significant. I still think it will be at least a little north of the op, but that trough in the west is also trying to give the pattern a kick in the rear. Still, I'm optimistic for something better than I got today. It was encouraging to see the GFS ensembles look better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 15Z ETA is close to what I think is the most likely solution. It moved north about 75 miles with the sfc low and trended more amplified at 500 mb compared to the 3Z run. It has a decent 850 mb low that doesn't strengthen, but remains intact as it moves ESE from near Buffalo to just south of ACK. Has about 0.50 to 0.75" QPF for most of SNE with closer to 0.8-0.9" for E CT/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nice bump north on the NAM. Doesn't do a whole lot for me yet, but nice for you SNE guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 15Z ETA is close to what I think is the most likely solution. It has a decent 850 mb low that doesn't strengthen, but remains intact as it moves ESE from near Buffalo to just south of ACK. Has about 0.50 to 0.75" QPF for most of SNE with closer to 0.8-0.9" for E CT/RI. Yeah, CT/RI really get pounded on the 15z ETA...but still a solid hit into MA as well. The 15z ETA qpf distribution actually matches up fairly close to the SREF mean for snow probabilities. Best 4"+ in CT but still good probs into MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 15Z ETA is close to what I think is the most likely solution. It moved north about 75 miles with the sfc low and trended more amplified at 500 mb compared to the 3Z run. It has a decent 850 mb low that doesn't strengthen, but remains intact as it moves ESE from near Buffalo to just south of ACK. Has about 0.50 to 0.75" QPF for most of SNE with closer to 0.8-0.9" for E CT/RI. That's a pretty nice looking deformation area on the se side of the low. It's more the "shear" type deformation you see from stretching of air parcels downstream, rather than the classic signal on th nw side of the H7 low, but it's there. I like seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nice bump north on the NAM. Doesn't do a whole lot for me yet, but nice for you SNE guys. Congrats Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z GFS looks a little better Wednesday Night into Thursday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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