ski MRG Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 "what would have to happen " The possibility exists, that's all I need. Weren't you one of the Spring Prancers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 gefs are wagons south, .5-.75 of precip here all snow. its going to be fun watching the models and forecasts that bust, clearly something has to give. The GFS is what has to give and it did; it's clearly trending south at 18z and will probably make another jump on 0z. When the GFS is on its own with a storm track against a consistent NAM/ECM consensus, you can bet that the NCEP model will trend rapidly to meet the other models in the last 48 hours. This is my favorite line from the Upton AFD: UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER NYC AND LONGISLAND...WHERE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIPWILL END EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OUT TO SEA. They really think LI will only get an inch with models showing 850s well below 0C, with dews in the 20s, and with everything giving like .75" QPF. Huh? Especially for the North Shore this is a terrible forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 yes he claims to have gotten up at 130....but that would have been the first time he was awake in history for an hour (1:30 to 2:30) and didn't post while he was getting couple inches/hr snowfall. he set his alarm too late we know the deal .....no one is buying what he is selling about that nite. haha, we have that night bracketed and he was not on until Much later. Hard to believe his 1:30AM story when we were all asking why he was sleeping through 2"/hr snowfall rates with no response.. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I was 100% awake that night . I got everyones texts to wake up and also told you the story about the woman who wnet into labor a few houses down from me and had to be rescued because she couldn't get out of her driveway shortly after 2:00am okay, sounding more believable now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The possibility exists, that's all I need. Weren't you one of the Spring Prancers? weren't you the one who drew the shades so as to pretend you were in alaska a week ago bc u couldn't stand the site of melting melting melting. i thought i remember you saying how you disassociated during that week ...which is common during trauma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 32/25, skied a nice line down to about 800' where the snow from yesterday was starting to thin. Held onto the 4-6" that fell yesterday from 1200' up. Popped out of the woods at the bottom of the local Sugarbush. 750 gallon collection tank needs to be emptied daily. Sap is a flowing, been a good sugaring season, much better than last year. Wow...amazing how that hemlock forest holds snow at this time of year. Yesterday's snow completely gone below 1K, but I still have a little left in the protected areas here at 1.15K. Look forward to some of that local maple syrup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Since Phil isn't here I will type this for him: "This thread is a disaster" Am I gettin any or ain't I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Only 1996 and 2005 have been snowier than this winter imby, over the course of the past 16 season as it is, so anything else is unnecessary. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen_CentralMass_Wx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 now would be a good time paul to tell her about the trips to blizz's house. off to gym. will be back and posting on topic i know for fact Those are bogus too. you don't know about him much at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I may not be Will, but I'm more inclined to go with a 4-6" snowfall for the East Slope at this point. If the model guidance trends in favor of the more north GFS solution at 00Z, I'd be more inclined to go with an 8"+ scenario for you. The atmosphere is very cold, and ratios could be quite good for the higher elevations, especially at night. Hi Mitch, 4-6" is the way to go at this juncture, I agree, but hope springs eternal. lol Of course I fully anticipate a jog North in the eleventh hour. I'll be happy with a modest snowfall as it will put me into double digit snowfall for the 4th consecutive month but more is always better. Now if we can get the big April snow that's eluded us the last several Aprils and we get 5 straight months of DD snowfall the 2010-11 season will get the much coveted 5 star rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 now would be a good time paul to tell her about the trips to blizz's house. off to gym. will be back and posting on topic LOL on Mt Tolland. Have fun at the gym, or are you training someone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The GFS is what has to give and it did; it's clearly trending south at 18z and will probably make another jump on 0z. When the GFS is on its own with a storm track against a consistent NAM/ECM consensus, you can bet that the NCEP model will trend rapidly to meet the other models in the last 48 hours. This is my favorite line from the Upton AFD: UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER NYC AND LONGISLAND...WHERE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIPWILL END EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OUT TO SEA. They really think LI will only get an inch with models showing 850s well below 0C, with dews in the 20s, and with everything giving like .75" QPF. Huh? Especially for the North Shore this is a terrible forecast.. NAM is a big southern outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM is a big southern outlier right now. Yeah, but it doesn't really matter....the ECM, GEFS, and RGEM are mainly a snow event for NYC, SW CT, SE NY, S RI etc. The only model that threatens any of these areas with taint is the GFS OP, and it's been trending towards the southern consensus. I don't think the NAM will verify with me getting 1.25" QPF as snow, but I think Upton is playing it much too conservative just because it's late March. The overwhelming model consensus says this is a snowstorm for the coastal plain of SNE and NYC metro. Places with elevation like where I live should be under a warning, not an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 i know for fact Those are bogus too. you don't know about him much at all You need to come to the next GTG.. NWS BOX is too conservative IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Not a whiff....but I distinctly remember that you said nw of Boston would only see light snows. You were wrong in that respect, jut as I was wrong for not catching the split. Technically I was right. Montreal only had flurries. If this one keeps going south not even smoking a Jeffrey will take the edge off around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yeah, but it doesn't really matter....the ECM, GEFS, and RGEM are mainly a snow event for NYC, SW CT, SE NY, S RI etc. The only model that threatens any of these areas with taint is the GFS OP, and it's been trending towards the southern consensus. I don't think the NAM will verify with me getting 1.25" QPF as snow, but I think Upton is playing it much too conservative just because it's late March. The overwhelming model consensus says this is a snowstorm for the coastal plain of SNE and NYC metro. Places with elevation like where I live should be under a warning, not an advisory. In this thread it does...NAM virtually whiffs all of SNE for any meaningful snow except the SW third of CT. There's some issues with snow for LI...I'd probably go heavier than 1" but precip rates will mean a lot of difference between non-accumulating or very slowly accumulating snow above freezing and a heavier snow that sticks at or below freezing. The models have been inconsistent in showing more defined area of heavy precip. ECMWF doesn't have any 6 hour panel with more than about 0.30-0.35" of qpf. That's not very heavy. Also the ECMWF gets the 0C 850 line up into S LI by 42h...so there's certainly a possibility of mixing in NYC and LI at some point if that is correct as mixing will likely occur out in front of the 0C line by a bit. If something colder like the NAM verifies, then it would definitely be a lot of snow, but they just can't hang their hat on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hunter Mountain Pete.... or better maybe Plattekill ..based on whats out there now.,.. The possibility exists, that's all I need. Weren't you one of the Spring Prancers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 the gfs has this one in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 weren't you the one who drew the shades so as to pretend you were in alaska a week ago bc u couldn't stand the site of melting melting melting. i thought i remember you saying how you disassociated during that week ...which is common during trauma. No, last week I skied a lot on awesome, freshly fallen snow. Wow...amazing how that hemlock forest holds snow at this time of year. Yesterday's snow completely gone below 1K, but I still have a little left in the protected areas here at 1.15K. Look forward to some of that local maple syrup... Lots of Hemlock in the shot there but just above the collection tank it's mostly Maple. It's a nice place to ski as my neighbor has tended the forest very well so it's true glade skiing. Also, he knows me and doesn't shoot. The Sugarhouses are going full tilt right now, some go right through the night. Love getting the fresh Maple Syrup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 If you follow the .5" line on the GFS from like Lake Ontario east southeast to around ALB. You see that it didn't really move to speak of at 18Z. What it did do is get rid of that odd snow max in northeast NY and VT..... NAM is a big southern outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hunter Mountain Pete.... or better maybe Plattekill ..based on whats out there now.,.. Hunta. Skied there twice this year, that's enough.lol It's fine mid-week but I'd never go near that place on a weekend. The NYC meathead contingent is more than I care to deal with. There zip line set-up looks pretty cool with one line getting you WAY up there as you cross the ravine. Might go there this summer to check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Technically I was right. Montreal only had flurries. If this one keeps going south not even smoking a Jeffrey will take the edge off around here. I still have a lot of snow on the ground from systems you said were going south. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 So (this is for Kev), do we toss the GFS as garbage? Or is it a keepsie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Actually Greek Peak may get the jackpot here in NYS I still have a lot of snow on the ground from systems you said were going south. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 [#2000] You are not allowed to visit this forum. all i see is this when trying to go to the last page. good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Actually Greek Peak may get the jackpot here in NYS LOL, I think they have a dizzying 350' vertical drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 [#2000] You are not allowed to visit this forum. all i see is this when trying to go to the last page. good night ??? that is weird What do you think is in the cards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 They claim.... Vertical Drop 952' Snowmaking Coverage 83% Night Skiing Yes, 7 nights http://www.greekpeak.net/ LOL, I think they have a dizzying 350' vertical drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I still have a lot of snow on the ground from systems you said were going south. Keep up the good work. Three cumulus clouds just passed over your house, you probably got at least two inches from that to jump start storm totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 LOL, I think they have a dizzying 350' vertical drop. Greek Peak FTW I thought that place was the s*** when I was 7 yrs old. BTW, 952' vertical according to their site. Certainly not up to your lofty standards of course, I'm sure. Edit: slow on the draw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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