snowman21 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 great read actually, limited moisture in the snow growth region and mid level drying. You know what that means - tiny flakes that wouldn't amount to much in January much less late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Up...it's over. NOGAPS went south - sarcasm this makes me smile more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 even a small ribbon of 8 inch snows on there 230pm update. i like that the 4 and 8 inch probs aren't alligned WNW-ESE. that gives me more hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 even a small ribbon of 8 inch snows on there 230pm update. i like that the 4 and 8 inch probs aren't alligned WNW-ESE. that gives me more hope. Cali gettin busy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 even a small ribbon of 8 inch snows on there 230pm update. i like that the 4 and 8 inch probs aren't alligned WNW-ESE. that gives me more hope. Exactly my point.. Howdy Doody says he's going by HPC with light amounts..when they're not doing that at all..No sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Would higher elevations in NW RI, NE CT be a good guess for jackpots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Would higher elevations in NW RI, NE CT be a good guess for jackpots? good luck getting consensus 37 to 27 your winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hey Kev, can you help me make sense of this? Taunton's update still says ECM supports a middle of the road solution between GFS and NAM, but didn't you say ECM was further north than all of them? .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODEL SOLNS FOR A FAST MOVING UPPER LVL TROF MOVING INTO THEBASE OF A POLAR VORTEX DIGGING S FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAVEBEGUN TO DIVERGE JUST SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHILE NAMWAS MUCH FURTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ITHAS SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY MORE N TRACK OF LATE. GFS IS STILL THENRN OUTLIER...BUT IS GENERALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ITS OWN UPPER LVLPATTERN. THE MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT AS THE POLAR VORTEXDIGS FURTHER S CONFLUENT FLOW THANKS TO WELL DEFINED NEARLY ZONALJET SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT GFS MAY BE A BITTOO FAR N AS IT WANTS TO PASS THE H7 CUTOFF ASSOCIATED WITH THEFEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF THE JET ALOFT WHERECONFLUENCE IS BEST. THE ECMWF AND ECENS MEAN GENERALLY SPLIT THEDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE S NAM AND THE N GFS AND HAS SUPPORT FROM09Z SREF AND HPC. GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT PREVIOUS FCSTSPREFERRED THE ECMWF SOLN...TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD THECOMBINATION OF SREF AND ECMWF. THE MORE PERIOD SPECIFIC DISCUSSIONTO FOLLOW IS BASED GENERALLY ON THIS SOLN. Exactly my point.. Howdy Doody says he's going by HPC with light amounts..when they're not doing that at all..No sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 good luck getting consensus 37 to 27 your winning LOL... going Weds night if all goes well. Then Saturday (maybe) Sunday (maybe) You might do well in this...perhaps too far east? Thompson CT, Burrilville, RI area-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Biggest model run of our lives right now, big big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 LOL Biggest model run of our lives right now, big big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 LOL Well it's not the same as the GFS at 12z. Looks like it's south to the west, further north to the east. Either means the first pulse gets us better or we're screwed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The 12z run of the GFS was really far north, I'd be shocked if it did that again. It mixed or changed most of the southern half CT over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The 12z run of the GFS was really far north, I'd be shocked if it did that again. It mixed or changed most of the southern half CT over. Very clear this run isn't even close to the 12z. Wagons SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Man its still riding that mid-level low right along the NY/PA border...its been so stubborn. Its not as far north as the extreme 12z run, but its still well north of other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Biggest model run of our lives right now, big big run. Whaaaaa - over this pos system? if you say so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 gfs certainly came south, both 850s and bl temps are colder. Not a huge move but nothing like 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Whaaaaa - over this pos system? if you say so... Psssst. Sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Man its still riding that mid-level low right along the NY/PA border...its been so stubborn. Its not as far north as the extreme 12z run, but its still well north of other guidance. Yeah...but it's probably caving. Other thing is...not a true QPF bomb but weirdness with that qpf max out to the SE. Either that's the culprit in the model camps...well I guess it is the culprit but one side is wrong/one is right. It may be a real moisture robbing feature like on the NAM or not. Whaaaaa - over this pos system? if you say so... woooosh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This is a pretty sweet run for almost all of SNE...too bad we can't lock it in now. I think the final solution will be closer to something like the RGEM though...a little bit south of what we see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 33/28, flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This is a pretty sweet run for almost all of SNE...too bad we can't lock it in now. I think the final solution will be closer to something like the RGEM though...a little bit south of what we see here. Wasn't the RGEM warning snows from the Pike south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well good day for me...models look good and an old friend is now the mens basketball coach at Providence College...that's a good day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Wasn't the RGEM warning snows from the Pike south? Yeah, this is further north than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yeah, this is further north than that. Heavy heavy snow for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Exactly my point.. Howdy Doody says he's going by HPC with light amounts..when they're not doing that at all..No sense I honestly think they hold off on watches/warnings/advisories just to annoy you They must know how much it bugs you not to have you're county colored before an impending winter storm, haha. It really doesn't matter though, weather is going to do what it wants to do. Go with Ryan's advisory level snows... that sounds like a good middle of the road solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 This is a pretty sweet run for almost all of SNE...too bad we can't lock it in now. I think the final solution will be closer to something like the RGEM though...a little bit south of what we see here. I could see the RGEM even the GFS ensembles were nice...something like that would be my guess for now. I think some of the developing convection and MCS will possibly play some games in the models and maybe cause the placement of low pressure to wobble..especially on the NAM. But check this out. No drying in the DGZ here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This storm may err on the side of more potency than guidance in any event... Pretty wild christmas tree of warnings flying from N NJ all the way to eastern MT with this sucker. Includeing blizzard and ice - Whaaaaa - over this pos system? if you say so... Haha... what is it? A piece of sh*t or a potent winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Cold day today..Most of the new snow from yesterday melted..though still some patches. High was only 38.6..Forecast had called for upper 40's Might be the warmest day we see for a week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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