weatherMA Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 watches and warnings are up (purple-advisories, pink warnings, blue watches) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 SNE could really get under a nice mid-level comma head if we see a solution close to that. We've been seeing signs on the RH field for a couple days now and the qpf is slowly starting respond. Maybe it won't come all the way as north as we want it, but there's def a bit more room to see that happen. Even the SREFs have a nice comma head lingering and slowly rotting overhead on Thursday. I'm starting to feel pretty good about some snow, and the timing will work out pretty well I think. I still want to see some good lift for areas along the coast, so that it won't be a 34F snow that sticks to random cold spots on the ground, but I like seeing that comma head feature straddling the Pike area. Ideally, I'd like to see this really wrap up near the BM. The euro came close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 like sw ct areas 500-700' just S of danbury. also SW RI 300-400' i.e exeter everyone north of a danbury -SW RI LIne .......up in air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Alright time to be productive..lol. Hopefully the NAM and GFS look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 okx pretty conservative, not even an advisory here, thinking this is mainly elevation accumulating snows, which I agree with during the daytime tom, tom night I believe is a different story, oh well. We're under an advisory here. I think the most important thing for you will be how much gets thrown back from the coastal tomorrow evening as temperatures drop with the sunset. You could definitely meet advisory criteria in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yesterday morning it was 40 and raining, quick flip to mod snow for 90 min or so yielded a coating, unless goofus has the right idea, I think okx is a bit conservative in my area, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I can't wait for wiz's first severe thread that produces a marginal cell in Litchfield county and nowhere else. Also can't wait for discussing whether the high will reach 77 or 72....that is so much more fun than tracking winter storms. Look at all the posts and excitmenet we've had over the last 4- days as compared to the previous 20 days...It was so boring until the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 We're under an advisory here. I think the most important thing for you will be how much gets thrown back from the coastal tomorrow evening as temperatures drop with the sunset. You could definitely meet advisory criteria in that case. Its going to come down to intensity, yesterday it had no problem sticking with a warm ground and warm bl temps due to the moderate rate of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM is still pretty awful for most of us...though it did amplify more in the upper levels compared to 12z...just not enough to really do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's a numbers game checkout the camshot from SR where Ginx is or is heading...there's nobody there either and they have 128 of 132 trails open. Just one of the best days ever, fantastic Powdah everywhere, day two perfect, tired non stop day. More Thurs? Place is empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 New 15z SREF snow probs...looking pretty good for CT/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM is still pretty awful for most of us...though it did amplify more in the upper levels compared to 12z...just not enough to really do anything. SW CT still gets warning criteria. Maybe an advisory up to HFD or TOL. According to the nam no one in mass gets more then 1" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Even some decent 8 inch probs on there for CT/RI/SE Ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 So let me get this correct..Snow starts in all of Ct tomorrow before noon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 SW CT still gets warning criteria. Maybe an advisory up to HFD or TOL. According to the nam no one in mass gets more then 1" though. It gives Ray like 5 flakes, lol. Its amazing how different the GFS and NAM are this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Its going to come down to intensity, yesterday it had no problem sticking with a warm ground and warm bl temps due to the moderate rate of snowfall. Yeah, I think they should go with a warning in SE NY and SW CT. 18z NAM shows nearly 1" liquid falling as snow in some areas. That's heavy banding at 30 hours with nearly .4" QPF in one frame in the form of snow. We managed to get over 1" snow yesterday with some BS wave and 850s of -0.5C and surface temps starting near 40F. This is going to be a lot more serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 349 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 ...EARLY SPRING SNOW ON THE WAY... CTZ005-006-NJZ004-103-NYZ068>070-230400- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0010.110323T1000Z-110324T1400Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-EASTERN PASSAIC- WESTERN BERGEN-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 349 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MODERATE SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER HIGH ELEVATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The NAM doesn't usually win... But yeah just a little diference.... GFS .75" here and NAM .15" It gives Ray like 5 flakes, lol. Its amazing how different the GFS and NAM are this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 If the NAM is right.. the Upton forecast of basically no accumulations in NYC will crash and burn badly. Yeah, I think they should go with a warning in SE NY and SW CT. 18z NAM shows nearly 1" liquid falling as snow in some areas. That's heavy banding at 30 hours with nearly .4" QPF in one frame in the form of snow. We managed to get over 1" snow yesterday with some BS wave and 850s of -0.5C and surface temps starting near 40F. This is going to be a lot more serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 If the NAM is right.. the Upton forecast of basically no accumulations in NYC will crash and burn badly. They are calling for 1-3" in the City. 2-5" here in the northern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It gives Ray like 5 flakes, lol. Its amazing how different the GFS and NAM are this close in. It really is. I guess if you split the difference you could put out a 2-4" forecast...which is what this station did I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 yeah but if you go with ktan we dont get much snow but if you side with the gfs we are buried either way one office is going to lose and lose badly lol If the NAM is right.. the Upton forecast of basically no accumulations in NYC will crash and burn badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 With ALB going with WSW..Box will follow suit south of Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Maybe it will be like that feb 5 storm where we thought we were getting 3-6" snow within 48 hours, then snow to rain...then mostly rain. This time it will change from miss to near hit...to 4-8" for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 they didnt though! With ALB going with WSW..Box will follow suit south of Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 confluence FTL congrats SW ct.......wouldn't be suprised if E ct/ RI got skunked as well. S Ny where zucker is (and esp. 500') or so into SW CT Danbury S (elevated) looks like solid warning criteria. i just remember seeing confluent flow and models kind of over do N extent of precip and areas East and north get much less. i wouldn't feel that comfortable outside sw ct for advisory snows right now do to confluence....(sw ri (300'+) could prob also be added but no where else at this stage.....but that's just a weenie opinion. i mean does it concern anyone that where relying on best lift well N of low.....up into a confluent flow. seems like sharp have's have not's and my line is from danbury /torrington ESE toward exeter , RI. so ESE windflow over cold air v. confluence . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 As of last report their WSW ended south/west of this area or the berks ....... With ALB going with WSW..Box will follow suit south of Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Kevin gets 2-4" while I get zilch... amazing for march imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 kev i would have done the same thing just to let people know that the chance is there for something more to happen if this does trend north its going to take alot of people off guard a watch can always be downgraded to an advisory so i dont know why they didnt do it there the pros though i just would have expected the same thing we will see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 they didnt though! lol they will put up advisory's for Southern 1/2 of RI with the option to upgrade them later. with highest totals just inland SW RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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