dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Wants to develop a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Chuck 'em high, chuck 'em low Send 'em sailing out the window Because Kevin says, and he's always right It's gon' snow tomorrow night Man I can't wait for spring Hippies will be wrapped in flannels for another 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Ughh hate to be in FL and miss that.... I'd give Tip my ticket to TPA if I wasn't expected down there for a family thing. Euro pattern is a loaded gun at 144h for something really big around Mar 29th...regardless of whether or not this run actually produces a huge hit verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hippies will be wrapped in flannels for another 3 weeks. As well as tube socks on the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's the Archambault ICBM This one is for you, John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This one is for you, John. A whole roll of dollar coins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Any clowns floating around that someone could share, or is it too early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 972 mb well east of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Thats a great look for the D7 system...verbatim it hammers DC and then swings a tad too far E for us, but nevermind the verbatim details at this point. That setup has good potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Any clowns floating around that someone could share, or is it too early? "That clown looks funny and not in a ha-ha way" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Thats a great look for the D7 system...verbatim it hammers DC and then swings a tad too far E for us, but nevermind the verbatim details at this point. That setup has good potential. It would be a huge wet snowbomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 End of the month sure looks interesting. If there was ever a pattern to deliver in the spring, this is it. It's telling when you can see favorable placement developing even by 48 hours. Main thing is getting the incoming short wave to be strong enough. The other thing I like to see is "clean" flow, absent of smaller packets of s/w energy, which the Euro and GFS seem to achieve. One coherent s/w tracking toward a -NAO block in the process of breaking down. BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 End of the month sure looks interesting. If there was ever a pattern to deliver in the spring, this is it. It's telling when you can see favorable placement developing even by 48 hours. Main thing is getting the incoming short wave to be strong enough. The other thing I like to see is "clean" flow, absent of smaller packets of s/w energy, which the Euro and GFS seem to achieve. One coherent s/w tracking toward a -NAO block in the process of breaking down. BOOM That "clean" feel to the flow characteristic is an emergent propery for when large mass field adjustments get under way. The NAO dives to -2SD, then rises to 0.00 ( ~ ) over the next 10 days, and in order for the domain to do that requires some concerted atmospheric motion on a large scale. It has to do with wave mechanics but that much deterministic flow tends to dampen out the little fellas, while bigger better timed ones get a huge positive feed-back from superimposing their spatial presence where R-Wave repositioning is already taking place. In this case the PNA rises through 1 ...probably close to 2 SD ultimately, meanwhile the NAO does a big snap like taking a rope and popping one end and watching the wave ripple down its length - first it gets/got warm, now it gets cold, boom. 1978 was kick back. So was the Cleveland Superbomb... so was the Superstorm, just to name a superior few. But there were lesser albeit still mighty examples in the annals that were all nestled into the nodes, and not tweeners like this early Thursday deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 The Canadian regional actually does try and hook back a little CCB around 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 15z SREFs look similar to the 09z SREF mean...0.50" qpf to the MA/CT border and eastward to the south shore. It looks like they bring the 0.25" further north though into S NH. The spread increased as well...which is usually the opposite of what should happen as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The past 2 Euro runs have finally caved to the the amplified western US ridge early next week that the GGEM/GFS/GFS ens have been indicating run after run. That's the key to any potential storm next Tue-Wed. Euro pattern is a loaded gun at 144h for something really big around Mar 29th...regardless of whether or not this run actually produces a huge hit verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 15z SREFs look similar to the 09z SREF mean...0.50" qpf to the MA/CT border and eastward to the south shore. It looks like they bring the 0.25" further north though into S NH. I thought they were going south at first, but they corrected a bit. Hopefully that means models are trying to entrain more moisture in from the Atlantic. They actually were a little north of 09z, out in NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The models and forecasts are all over the place...depending on the model or forecast I could be getting snow showers or 8" of snow, and were like 30 hours away. 9z eta is a sw ct jackpot, what a nightmare, this cant be happening. Oh well, cant control the weather. Locked and Loaded 5-10 statewide across ct....lollis to a foot, seems plenty cold enough on all guidance outside the GOOFUS. Congrats on using reverse psychology to will the jackpot into CT. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Chuck 'em high, chuck 'em low Send 'em sailing out the window Because Kevin says, and he's always right It's gon' snow tomorrow night Man I can't wait for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well, a good ole fashioned sne spring snowstorm! dxr 8 bdr 5 hfd 7 toll 7 orh 5 bos 4.5 pvd 6 tan 6 gon 5 lollis to a foot across the rte 84 corridor and especially in the nw ri hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Congrats on the jackpot. 1000' and in north central CT should be a great spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I can't wait for wiz's first severe thread that produces a marginal cell in Litchfield county and nowhere else. Also can't wait for discussing whether the high will reach 77 or 72....that is so much more fun than tracking winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well, a good ole fashioned sne spring snowstorm! dxr 8 bdr 5 hfd 7 toll 7 orh 5 bos 4.5 pvd 6 tan 6 gon 5 lollis to a foot across the rte 84 corridor and especially in the nw ri hills. dxr 8 hfd 4 toll 3 orh 2 bos 2 pvd 3 tan 3 gon 7 ginx 4 SW RI 5-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well, a good ole fashioned sne spring snowstorm! dxr 8 bdr 5 hfd 7 toll 7 orh 5 bos 4.5 pvd 6 tan 6 gon 5 lollis to a foot across the rte 84 corridor and especially in the nw ri hills. And Dobbs Ferry? I really like where we are sitting right now, I think our area stands to see some nice QPF from the coastal cranking as well as the WAA, and we should stay cold enough. I could see a jackpot somewhere in SE NY or SW CT if things go as most of the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 EC ensembles look better too. What a nicely defined low at hr 48, se of the BM. Actually, a good shift wnw during Wednesday Night, as compared to the 00z EC ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 EC ensembles look better too. What a nicely defined low at hr 48, se of the BM. Actually, a good shift wnw during Wednesday Night, as compared to the 00z EC ensembles. I was suprised to see how far se hpc has the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 EC ensembles look better too. What a nicely defined low at hr 48, se of the BM. Actually, a good shift wnw during Wednesday Night, as compared to the 00z EC ensembles. SNE could really get under a nice mid-level comma head if we see a solution close to that. We've been seeing signs on the RH field for a couple days now and the qpf is slowly starting respond. Maybe it won't come all the way as north as we want it, but there's def a bit more room to see that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 I was suprised to see how far se hpc has the low It's not far from euro ensembles. One of those things where lift and precip is much farther north of the actual low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 okx pretty conservative, not even an advisory here, thinking this is mainly elevation accumulating snows, which I agree with during the daytime tom, tom night I believe is a different story, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 WWA up from upton away from the coast. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER HIGH ELEVATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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