CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 New SREFs have the mid level lows pretty far north, in relation to the surface low. H7 features on the SREFs actually look good for SNE, despite the QPF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Looks like a solid 4-8 inch event..maybe even 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM looks like it made a nudge north through hr 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 nam moved north start of the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nice run from PA through CT/SE MA. Still confluence hell up here, but it's closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM has nice mid level frontogenesis right over SNE. Very nice hit as the low develops and wraps a CCB in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Man what a snowy week shaping up. Could be a nice warning event on Wed nite/ Thursday..Long duration too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Man what a snowy week shaping up. Could be a nice warning event on Wed nite/ Thursday..Long duration too Definitely on the positive anomaly side for snow production post the ides of March, Kevin. Spring now by both calendars... weather pattern has other intentions. Thursday's system looks to have an impressive deformation cut-off... The question - 64,000 worth - is where does that axis align? Obviously as modeled Dendrite gets boned while Kevin, undeservingly so spoiled this season beyond the dreams of avarice, get's upwards of 8" or more strictly using the NAM's QPF totals and figuring for limited ptype contamination. About that, between Japan's mortal disaster and Kevin, being the most irrational snow zealot obsesser of them all getting endlessly what appeases him like Homer in hell with the donut stuffing machine, I think are pretty shimmering reminders of a godless universe. There's even a subtle signal in there nearing 80 hours for a lingering llv convergence ...almost a Norlun like feature, extending from the low as it moves over the BM back W to Mt Tolland, specifically, and like ... noone else. Creepy. That may not be the last event of this last winter hurrah. As has been discussed often enough - and I started a thread about this my self last week - this era has been potent enough in the teleconnectors. As of the overnight runs that remains. We have a convergent signal with -NAO (of at least moderate west versus east placement) together with a nice 6-10 day positive PNA interval. The best expresion of that temporal nexus takes place between the 27th and the 30th of this month. At this time, the deterministic model runs are disagreeing on the extent of cyclogenesis along the EC, but more amplitude would be favored. Just something to keep an eye on over the next couple few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Definitely on the positive anomaly side for snow production post the ides of March, Kevin. Spring now by both calendars... weather pattern has other intentions. Thursday's system looks to have an impressive deformation cut-off... The question - 64,000 worth - is where does that axis align? Obviously as modeled Dendrite gets boned while Kevin, undeservingly so spoiled this season beyond the dreams of avarice, get's upwards of 8" or more strictly using the NAM's QPF totals and figuring for limited ptype contamination. About that, between Japan's mortal disaster and Kevin, being the most irrational snow zealot obsesser of them all getting endlessly what appeases him like Homer in hell with the donut stuffing machine, I think are pretty shimmering reminders of a godless universe. There's even a subtle signal in there nearing 80 hours for a lingering llv convergence ...almost a Norlun like feature, extending from the low as it moves over the BM back W to Mt Tolland, specifically, and like ... noone else. Creepy. That may not be the last event of this last winter hurrah. As has been discussed often enough - and I started a thread about this my self last week - this era has been potent enough in the teleconnectors. As of the overnight runs that remains. We have a convergent signal with -NAO (of at least moderate west versus east placement) together with a nice 6-10 day positive PNA interval. The best expresion of that temporal nexus takes place between the 27th and the 30th of this month. At this time, the deterministic model runs are disagreeing on the extent of cyclogenesis along the EC, but more amplitude would be favored. Just something to keep an eye on over the next couple few days. Possibly one of your best posts ever. The basic summation of it all means heavy heavy snow...and heavy heavy coat wearings for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Possibly one of your best posts ever. The basic summation of it all means heavy heavy snow...and heavy heavy coat wearings for you Back flips off the tobin bridge if it doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Back flips off the tobin bridge if it doesn't work out. Nah... actually the opposite. Once that 70F day kissed my napes last Friday my heart wilted for winter ever more. I don't think I could be more done with this season, despite impressive appeal out of doors right now. But ... one thing I won't do is confuse my druthers with analytics and general fascination with the weather - I keep those 2 facet well disconnected. Having said that ... I admit to being pretty impressed by what may very well turn out to be an incredible 10 days stretch here if things break right. We may bet clocked on Thursday, then if that teleconnectors hold any merit something potentially even bigger after that. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Definitely on the positive anomaly side for snow production post the ides of March, Kevin. Spring now by both calendars... weather pattern has other intentions. Thursday's system looks to have an impressive deformation cut-off... The question - 64,000 worth - is where does that axis align? Obviously as modeled Dendrite gets boned while Kevin, undeservingly so spoiled this season beyond the dreams of avarice, get's upwards of 8" or more strictly using the NAM's QPF totals and figuring for limited ptype contamination. About that, between Japan's mortal disaster and Kevin, being the most irrational snow zealot obsesser of them all getting endlessly what appeases him like Homer in hell with the donut stuffing machine, I think are pretty shimmering reminders of a godless universe. There's even a subtle signal in there nearing 80 hours for a lingering llv convergence ...almost a Norlun like feature, extending from the low as it moves over the BM back W to Mt Tolland, specifically, and like ... noone else. Creepy. That may not be the last event of this last winter hurrah. As has been discussed often enough - and I started a thread about this my self last week - this era has been potent enough in the teleconnectors. As of the overnight runs that remains. We have a convergent signal with -NAO (of at least moderate west versus east placement) together with a nice 6-10 day positive PNA interval. The best expresion of that temporal nexus takes place between the 27th and the 30th of this month. At this time, the deterministic model runs are disagreeing on the extent of cyclogenesis along the EC, but more amplitude would be favored. Just something to keep an eye on over the next couple few days. Definitely a good deformation area on the models, well north of the good QPF, so a red flag right there. I like how the NAM is wrapped up too, and not pointing a middle finger back at SNE as it departs. It tries to wrap up a CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Man what a snowy week shaping up. Could be a nice warning event on Wed nite/ Thursday..Long duration too . . . Cold Miser's Spring/ Summer hibernation mode put on hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Another nice bump north in the RH/thermal fields on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Another nice bump north in the RH/thermal fields on the GFS. looks further south than 0z. i get snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Another nice bump north in the RH/thermal fields on the GFS. Yep, deformation snows for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yep, deformation snows for you. Looks like nuisance light snows for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Haven't been following much...I can't deny I'm a bit of a borderline warmista and mentally check out of winter by mid-March...but today's event has piqued my interest, just in the sense it's over performed a bit in CT. Obviously climatology against us here in the CP, so today has offered nothing but cold rain, and maybe a few mangled flakes...but later this week does look interesting. Fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Looks like nuisance light snows for us It's kind of a widespread snow for everyone, but nothing particularly heavy. It still is rather disorganized in some aspects, but I'd give it another 24 hrs to see what the trends are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Definitely nice to see the bump north in the mid-levels to put us in line for some decent frontogenesis and ML deformation snow. Hopefully we can get it a bit better organized like the NAM (but slightly north with the main commahead)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 . . . Cold Miser's Spring/ Summer hibernation mode put on hold. Told ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 GFS ensembles are a little more amplified then the op it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Lundberg all over it.. Chuck em high chuck em far..chuck em into each others eye Snow will fall again tomorrow night into Wednesday over the interior Northeast as the storm is forced to cut south of New England. Areas from northeastern Pennsylvania and at least the southern tier of New York over to interior southern and central New England could be looking at more than a half of a foot of snow from that second storm, with some 'lollipop' amounts closer to a foot over the higher ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Lundberg all over it.. Chuck em high chuck em far..chuck em into each others eye Snow will fall again tomorrow night into Wednesday over the interior Northeast as the storm is forced to cut south of New England. Areas from northeastern Pennsylvania and at least the southern tier of New York over to interior southern and central New England could be looking at more than a half of a foot of snow from that second storm, with some 'lollipop' amounts closer to a foot over the higher ground. Thats tuesday night into wed? I thought it was a wed/thus deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Timing should be pretty good for snow even in lower elevations, unless this storm comes close by. Better chance for cstl areas with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Thats tuesday night into wed? I thought it was a wed/thus deal? Yeah it is...I think it's a typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Another nice bump north in the RH/thermal fields on the GFS. This time of year this should come a little north one would think. Jan-Feb this would be a midatlantic storm and some of sne...but its late March and we get good snow I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 You had to figure that with all of Kevin's optimism the Canadian would deliberately and on-purpose offer up a whiff on the 12z run. ah hahahahha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Some really nice hits for SNE from the GEFS members. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Euro is not pretty, back to suppression similar to 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.