mattinpa Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 i am a big storm fan, rain, wind, snow, whatever. I know the setup indicated is not favorable for an I-95 snowstorm. This winter is now beat, im ready for Maybe the cold will hang on for that nor-easter. Then it can leave - LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The operational run was definitely an amplified outlier compared to the mean, but the setup is good and we'll see how it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The operational run was definitely an amplified outlier compared to the mean, but the setup is good and we'll see how it goes Yea, not too many amped members http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/Members.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 GFS has another monster of a storm this run on April 2nd tracking a 976 mb low right on top of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 GFS tonight has something that looks like the 1993 superstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Yeah nice little rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 the cold air is pretty much stale and outta here by the time the storm gets here, sub 980mb over I-95, impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Looks like the GFS gives some light snow to the suburbs in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, could be a bigger event with the coastal trying to form. Here's 126: If we see the primary track further south, mid-level temperatures would be much colder with the blocking pattern still present, and there'd be more chance for a significant coastal to develop and impact the area. Certainly going to be interesting to follow, not often we have multiple threats coming in late March/early April after two accumulating snows in one week for much of the metro area, but 09-10 and 10-11 have been winters that stray far, far from the norm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Big Big storm still on the euro tonight, looks like the gfs, 500mb is closed off and a rapidly deepening low pressure steam rolls up the I-95. Im just wondering if we even have a shot at snow if it tracks over the BM, cold air is pretty stale.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Big Big storm still on the euro tonight, looks like the gfs, 500mb is closed off and a rapidly deepening low pressure steam rolls up the I-95. Im just wondering if we even have a shot at snow if it tracks over the BM, cold air is pretty stale.. It looks better for inland areas at this point due both to climatology and the 500mb low closing off too early/inland for the I-95 corridor. It could be a huge storm though, Archembault type event with the NAO block blowing up. Interestingly, I'm going to be driving to Chicago for a fellowship interview next Thursday or Friday so I may get to see some fun times on the road. Also interesting is that both the GFS/ECM build a big -EPO block in the longer range with hints of the NAO blocking returning around April 5th, the time frame HM mentioned for a massive Nor'easter to close out the winter season. There's definitely still multiple threats to be tracked for snow, plenty of cold shots to come....what a way to close out the best winter I have ever experienced, Winter 10-11. Thanks mother nature for the great show, may it continue... EDIT: Looks like the low is around 985mb on the Euro. Probably a monster hit for MI/IN and perhaps Chicago. 850s under the ULL are near -6C so there is definitely some snow involved. Looks like great dynamics with a closed H5 low. Just need to get it to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 yeah nate interesting points, gonna be fun to track..im sure theres room for the big storm to sneak off the coast and make the inland areas benefit more..remember the early model runs of the jan26th storm? tonights runs have a similar look with 500mb going nuts only to deamplify as we got closer to the event and get off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I would think late Mar/April Archambault events would be more favorable for inland areas climatologically, because the NAO trending toward neutral tends to weaken confluence and associated sfc highs. Also, when considering late Mar/April Archambault events where there is an amplifying ridge in the western US, one has to remember that with wavelengths shortening, the mean trough ends up further west than it would be earlier in the winter. A late March/April setup that has E. Canada/Greenland blocking remaining, with NAO values steady or decreasing (e.g. Mar 21-22, 1967; Mar 19-21, 1958; Apr 6, 1982) would be more favorable for significant snowfall in coastal areas. It looks better for inland areas at this point due both to climatology and the 500mb low closing off too early/inland for the I-95 corridor. It could be a huge storm though, Archembault type event with the NAO block blowing up. Interestingly, I'm going to be driving to Chicago for a fellowship interview next Thursday or Friday so I may get to see some fun times on the road. Also interesting is that both the GFS/ECM build a big -EPO block in the longer range with hints of the NAO blocking returning around April 5th, the time frame HM mentioned for a massive Nor'easter to close out the winter season. There's definitely still multiple threats to be tracked for snow, plenty of cold shots to come....what a way to close out the best winter I have ever experienced, Winter 10-11. Thanks mother nature for the great show, may it continue... EDIT: Looks like the low is around 985mb on the Euro. Probably a monster hit for MI/IN and perhaps Chicago. 850s under the ULL are near -6C so there is definitely some snow involved. Looks like great dynamics with a closed H5 low. Just need to get it to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I would think late Mar/April Archambault events would be more favorable for inland areas climatologically, because the NAO trending toward neutral tends to weaken confluence and associated sfc highs. Also, when considering late Mar/April Archambault events where there is an amplifying ridge in the western US, one has to remember that with wavelengths shortening, the mean trough ends up further west than it would be earlier in the winter. A late March/April setup that has E. Canada/Greenland blocking remaining, with NAO values steady or decreasing (e.g. Mar 21-22, 1967; Mar 19-21, 1958; Apr 6, 1982) would be more favorable for significant snowfall in coastal areas. Yeah, I don't really see a cold air source for this storm and it may track little too far west. I also don't see no strong high coming behind it, like Jan 26-27. I think odds are strongly against NYC and coastal areas getting a significant snowfall out this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The first storm looks great for inland areas (well north and west of the NYC metro). Several of the models show unseasonably cold temperatures returning behind this low. The second threat probably has a better chance at being a snow maker for us. We should all be very thankfull that the current setup is not what we've been dealing with all winter. If you take the Boxing Day storm and track it over NJ we would have gotten zilch I'm hoping that PA and NY can finaly cash in on a really big one so that perhaps they won't feel as if they are always getting the shaft out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 NOAGPS looking pretty sweet at hr 180. I think the chances of a noreaster have to be farily high, even though it will most likely be more wet than white for the coastal plain. While the CMC holds the energy back in the S/W and istead produces one monster around hour 240. Would be a major rain producer along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The NOGAPS went with a more inland solution on the 6z run like the previous runs of the EC and GFS prior to the GFS going off the coast on the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 This looks a bit like April 1 1997 event, where SNE got a 30+ inches. Plenty of time for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 NW NJ got 18 inches on March 31, 1997 with that storm. This looks a bit like April 1 1997 event, where SNE got a 30+ inches. Plenty of time for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 NW NJ got 18 inches on March 31, 1997 with that storm. Yes. High Point NJ got 28. but it can happen if it tracks closer like that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The main difference between the 00z GFS and the 06z GFS is that it closed off at hr 204 on the 00z run and does not close off at all on the 06z run with much less northern stream interaction. We need a perfectly timed phase job and the perfect track. Definitly threading a needle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The main difference between the 00z GFS and the 06z GFS is that it closed off at hr 204 on the 00z run and does not close off at all on the 06z run with much less northern stream interaction. We need a perfectly timed phase job and the perfect track. Definitly threading a needle here. More than threading a needle, sort of like a one in a million type scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 More than threading a needle, sort of like a one in a million type scenario. I agree to a degree, it would be like hitting the Mega Millions tonight but boy would the reward be huge if we did. HECS written all over it. Where is Pazzo to tell us it's going to be sunny and in the 70's all next week in midtown while the rest of us are sitting at 32 degrees and heavy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 April will be pretty cold month as the European Weeklies show and Joe Bastardi as well been saying this. Perhaps it will be like April 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 April will be pretty cold month as the European Weeklies show and Joe Bastardi as well been saying this. Perhaps it will be like April 2009. Most models show a return to more seasonably warm temperatures around the middle of April. The question remains if the NAO will go back negative again and if the blocking will return as some of the models have been hinting at. We just left a pattern with a strongly positive NAO and persistant Nina like SE ridge, odds are if you like 60's and 70's you will need to travel south of the Mason Dixon Line until the end of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 the system for April 2nd closes off but never quite phases with the northern stream and just pretty much heads northeast and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 the system for April 2nd closes off but never quite phases with the northern stream and just pretty much heads northeast and out to sea. it closes off over the SE and then opens up right as its passing off the VA coast for whatever reason. Before that I thought we were really hitting the JP on this run. The first threat is much different on this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 oh man...if we can get some phasing for the 04/02 event, obv, cud be BIG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I agree to a degree, it would be like hitting the Mega Millions tonight but boy would the reward be huge if we did. HECS written all over it. Where is Pazzo to tell us it's going to be sunny and in the 70's all next week in midtown while the rest of us are sitting at 32 degrees and heavy snow? think i just saw him in grand central holding up a thermometer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 oh man...if we can get some phasing for the 04/02 event, obv, cud be BIG. The models have been having trouble handeling the details of the northern stream S/W's all season. Wouldn't suprise me if at a later point the models started to show more phasing over the SE. If it phases too quickly though, it might get tuggued well west of us. It's too bad that our PV is moving out already by day 5 or 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 think i just saw him in grand central holding up a thermometer... I've never seen so many hardcore snow lovers turn into snow haters after a few days in the 60's and 70's that we knew weren't going to last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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