IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Interestingly the new GFS with the day 10 threat drops the southern stream all the way down to the gulf but there is no northern stream energy to speak of. S/W then slides off the SE coast. The good news is that the models are all over the place with this so alot can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Interestingly the new GFS with the day 10 threat drops the southern stream all the way down to the gulf but there is no northern stream energy to speak of. S/W then slides off the SE coast. The good news is that the models are all over the place with this so alot can change. The problem is by that point the favorable conditions at H5 have vanished. The block is already on its way out by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The problem is by that point the favorable conditions at H5 have vanished. The block is already on its way out by that point. Yes, I'm aware that we need things to speed up quickly. The main threat was for Tuesday and that seems to have vanished, at lest in terms of a snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 96 hour analogs actually have quite a few snow threats on them. The ones that do keep the action in the northern part of our region. None of them show the DC area getting blasted like the Euro or NAM would have you believe.. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=096&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 euro has an appalacian / coastal redevelopment taking place at day 7. By that time, there is no cold air left though.. all the blocking up north is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 euro has an appalacian / coastal redevelopment taking place at day 7. By that time, there is no cold air left though.. all the blocking up north is gone. Were missing our window of oppurtunity, something you can't afford to do after March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Our best shot is for the Sunday system to pop north and give us a couple inches. Very cold air is in place. I doubt it happens though due to the strong confluence over our area, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 it's a fairly significant system.. 988 mb right off the NYC coast at 192 then near BOS at 198.... It does have a CCB lingering.. surface temps are still rather warm, even on the back side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 April snow anyone? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Our best shot is for the Sunday system to pop north and give us a couple inches. Very cold air is in place. I doubt it happens though due to the strong confluence over our area, but you never know. yea, pretty much... the ensemble members are really tightly clustered around that timeframe.. i'd say the chances it moves much more north are pretty slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 April snow anyone? Wow. yea.. it seems possible for elevated areas well north and west of NYC.. anyone relatively close to the greater NYC metro area doesn't look to have a shot at much frozen stuff, given this Euro run verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 it's a fairly significant system.. 988 mb right off the NYC coast at 192 then near BOS at 198.... It does have a CCB lingering.. surface temps are still rather warm, even on the back side Sounds like a very nice setup if it was January or February, but a quick mover for it to go from NYC to Boston in 6 hours. Too bad the blocking will be gone, could have been special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Actually, by this frame, a high looks to be in fairly good position NW of ME. If that were a tad further west would it aid in bringing down the cold air or is just the case that there really isn't any air cold enough left up in Canada by this point? Looks like the 850mb freezing line is right over the DE river. Could be a wet snow for the western burbs. Surface line is almost by the Lakes, what an odd temperature profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Sounds like a very nice setup if it was January or February, but a quick mover for it to go from NYC to Boston in 6 hours. Too bad the blocking will be gone, could have been special. yea, there really isn't any cold air to be found at all across New England by that time... this would be an elevation storm for sure.. well, at least after that, 850 temps start consistantly running in the 0 to -4 range.. with a strong early April sun and some good mixing, that should be able to put us well up into the 50's... 60's still seem like a stretch right now in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Actually, by this frame, a high looks to be in fairly good position NW of ME. If that were a tad further west would it aid in bringing down the cold air or is just the case that there really isn't any air cold enough left up in Canada by this point? Looks like the 850mb freezing line is right over the DE river. Could be a wet snow for the western burbs. Surface line is almost by the Lakes, what an odd temperature profile. I hear what you're saying... Boundary temps are really problematic.... Surface temps still look like they're near 40 even behind the system... would need a really deep upper low with good vorticity advection to create some massive dynamic cooling and drag down some cold air at least partly into the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I hear what you're saying... Boundary temps are really problematic.... Surface temps still look like they're near 40 even behind the system... would need a really deep upper low with good vorticity advection to create some massive dynamic cooling and drag down some cold air at least partly into the boundary layer. I think the boundary layers are warming bad, due to the storm developing and taking a trajectory thats not favorable, resulting in SW winds before storm is east of us. If the storm took a more classic track, even boundary temps would probably be ok, especially with the powerful CCB. A track of 150 miles east of NC, then NNE towards Cape Cod, would be great, in the setup the euro just showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I hear what you're saying... Boundary temps are really problematic.... Surface temps still look like they're near 40 even behind the system... would need a really deep upper low with good vorticity advection to create some massive dynamic cooling and drag down some cold air at least partly into the boundary layer. You need the low not to hug the coast that much, it's too close for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I hear what you're saying... Boundary temps are really problematic.... Surface temps still look like they're near 40 even behind the system... would need a really deep upper low with good vorticity advection to create some massive dynamic cooling and drag down some cold air at least partly into the boundary layer. Did you notice the low coming down from the lakes right behind it. Looks almost like a kicker shortwave. By that point, surface and 850 temps are below freezing, not sure how much precip would be left if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I think the boundary layers are warming bad, due to the storm developing and taking a trajectory thats not favorable. If the storm took a more classic track, even boundary temps would probably be ok, especially with the powerful CCB. well, that's certainly part of the problem.. obviously, you can see the track of the surface low is pretty much right through NYC.. 850's spike to near 10C before crashing.. the problem is there is really no cold airmass at the surface to even advect into the area. I think that, even if the surface low had a classic track, it would still be problematic in many locations, other then high elevated areas... but like you said, dynamic cooling plays into part of it too.. we all know that we've seen it snow sometimes with temps even in the lower 40's.. and that is always possible... however, you need to drag some serious cold air from the upper levels pretty far down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Did you notice the low coming down from the lakes right behind it. Looks almost like a kicker shortwave. By that point, surface and 850 temps are below freezing, not sure how much precip would be left if anything. yep.. but it has most of the QPF pretty much out of here by the time surface temperatures start getting a bit closer to freezing... there is a bit of window maybe towards the very end for the greater NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 NOAGPS has great ridging out west and well below freezing surface and 850mb temps over the east. The euro is much warmer during this time frame and not as impressive with the ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 If you live in the metro area, make your snowballs today, because its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 If you live in the metro area, make your snowballs today, because its over. All the snow melted. LOL. P.S. Precip redeveloped after midnight last night and lasted thru 5am. Pretty impressive returns and all of NYC metro area got 1"-3" in less then 4 hours. 90% of it from 2am-4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 April 1997 redux on the ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 well, that's certainly part of the problem.. obviously, you can see the track of the surface low is pretty much right through NYC.. 850's spike to near 10C before crashing.. the problem is there is really no cold airmass at the surface to even advect into the area. I think that, even if the surface low had a classic track, it would still be problematic in many locations, other then high elevated areas... but like you said, dynamic cooling plays into part of it too.. we all know that we've seen it snow sometimes with temps even in the lower 40's.. and that is always possible... however, you need to drag some serious cold air from the upper levels pretty far down. I think cold air will probably be lacking, with AO positive and NAO going positive. Still will probably be significant snowfall for the high elevations. While areas closer to coast sees rain possibly changing to wet snow, depending on track, intensity, dynamics,etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 All the snow melted. LOL. P.S. Precip redeveloped after midnight last night and lasted thru 5am. Pretty impressive returns and all of NYC metro area got 1"-3" in less then 4 hours. 90% of it from 2am-4am. Yeah everyone went to bed way too early due to disappointment...it was actually snowing nicely here around 1-2am, looked gorgeous with all the trees caked in snow. Finished with 2.5" in Dobbs Ferry and nearby HPN checked in with .26" QPF, ratios slightly less than 10:1. Just shows how good the storm could have been if we actually got some banding and didn't sit under 10dbz returns all day. The sudden shift to the south was really unfortunate as it put the only QPF in places that had marginal temperatures instead of areas like mine, and then the coastal never really got going so we lost the chance for CCB snows. Models showed a consensus QPF which was 3x what actually fell here, just an incredibly sharp northern gradient. HPN had .26" liquid and Poughkeepsie only .09"...banding was oriented poorly NW-SE. I think cold air will probably be lacking, with AO positive and NAO going positive. Still will probably be significant snowfall for the high elevations. While areas closer to coast sees rain possibly changing to wet snow, depending on track, intensity, dynamics,etc. I think there are two problems: no high pressure to the north and a track WAY too close to the coast. NYC suburbs with elevation might be OK if the storm is more suppressed off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Long range GFS has something big brewing at hr 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 980mb just east of nyc lol this looks like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Long range GFS has something big brewing at hr 174 Child's play - take a look at the JMA at hr 7194... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Child's play - take a look at the JMA at hr 7194... i am a big storm fan, rain, wind, snow, whatever. I know the setup indicated is not favorable for an I-95 snowstorm. This winter is now beat, im ready for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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