CooL Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 12z Euro today looks like the GFS. Both flat, broad trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Euro is utter disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Euro is utter disaster Ruro this year has always been a disaster in every way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Funny how the CMC has the same look as the gfs/euro, not nearly as amp'd as these models were showing last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Funny how the CMC has the same look as the gfs/euro, not nearly as amp'd as these models were showing last night Tells me that these models are all handeling the large scale features in similar fashion. This could be another one of those scenarios where this wave is scrapped in favor of develpment on the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Euro says the real event is after 240hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 My favorite pattern would be to have a big snowstorm in the first week of April and then be hitting 90 plus by the middle of the month I think I can agree to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Great run to run continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The models are struggling to correctly resolve the shortwave energy in the fast Pacific flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 My favorite pattern would be to have a big snowstorm in the first week of April and then be hitting 90 plus by the middle of the month that almost happened in 2003...4-7" of snow on the 7th...88 degrees on the 16th...4/7/1938 had 6.4" of snow...4/15/1938 was 84 degrees... April 1915 had 10" of snow on the 2nd and two low 90's days late in the month... We had years when we went from below freezing temperatures to mid 90's within a week... 2002 was below freezing 4/7 with snow flurries...4/16 it was 92 degrees and 96 the next day... 1977 saw 25 degrees 4/9...It was 90 4/12... 1976 saw 25 degrees 4/12 with snow flurries...91 4/17 and 96 4/18... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Euro says the real event is after 240hrs Too many systems coming from the Pacific over the next ten days. So I wouldn’t trust any model too much, at this point. But I think this storm has probably the best chance of coming up the coast, and turning into Nor’easter for us. With the -NAO/50/50 low block gradually weakening. And an Alleutian low, helping to pump up a classic +PNA ridge out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Either that or you were thinking about April 2006.. either way its understandable-- we had a really nice streak going back then like now lol. No definitely not April 2006. It was the March 2004 snows I took note of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 that almost happened in 2003...4-7" of snow on the 7th...88 degrees on the 16th...4/7/1938 had 6.4" of snow...4/15/1938 was 84 degrees... April 1915 had 10" of snow on the 2nd and two low 90's days late in the month... We had years when we went from below freezing temperatures to mid 90's within a week... 2002 was below freezing 4/7 with snow flurries...4/16 it was 92 degrees and 96 the next day... 1977 saw 25 degrees 4/9...It was 90 4/12... 1976 saw 25 degrees 4/12 with snow flurries...91 4/17 and 96 4/18... Thanks Unc! It happened more often than I thought..... note that it's happened during periods of extreme blocking..... late 70s and early 00s. April 1915 sounds like my perfect pattern lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Thanks Unc! It happened more often than I thought..... note that it's happened during periods of extreme blocking..... late 70s and early 00s. April 1915 sounds like my perfect pattern lol. 19.4" in PHL. 20-24" in Southern Jersey for 1915. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 On the 12z Euro ensembles, how exactly does a well organized low over Oklahoma completely unwind with no confluent blocking high south of the Canadian border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 19.4" in PHL. 20-24" in Southern Jersey for 1915. Wow, thats insane! Not a storm I was previously aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 19.4" in PHL. 20-24" in Southern Jersey for 1915. Haha, see that was a little too suppressed for us. What day did it happen on? It's probably the latest occurring HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Haha, see that was a little too suppressed for us. What day did it happen on? It's probably the latest occurring HECS. Easter Sunday of 1915! April 3 was a Saturday. 4th Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Large scale features are different on 00z GFS compared to 12z. The vortex in the Pacific is less strong and intrusive on the west, and the confluent 50/50 is further west. We'll see what kind of impact it has on our system further down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The shortwave is much less amplified on the 00z. This is going to be suppressed big time. Massive changes in the Pacific though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Easter Sunday of 1915! April 3 was a Saturday. 4th Sunday. Easter snowstorms are awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The shortwave is much less amplified on the 00z. This is going to be suppressed big time. Massive changes in the Pacific though. the sunday storm? yup the models have suppressed this one for a while now, there are 2 more waves after that one that im watching, then it is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the best setup and possibly the finale is the post 7 day threat. That is when the Pacific finally clears and we get a nicer PNA ridge to amp things up. Other than that things are pretty lame and flat before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Don't like the looks of it. the longwave toff in the SW doesn't look like it will come east until at least 3 days after the cold air is gone.. Nice looking shotwaves but they all die out after they leave the SW troff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Don't like the looks of it. the longwave toff in the SW doesn't look like it will come east until at least 3 days after the cold air is gone.. Nice looking shotwaves but they all die out after they leave the SW troff. Or maybe it's just not handling the shortwaves right at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 00z euro says day 8-10 is the period to watch now - i feel like the big threat is being pushed back and back -but then again HM said there will be a few suppressed storms before a big one in early april. That theory is strongly supported by the euro/gfs tonight. but fwiw, verbatim tonight the euro has a 988mb low over NYC all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 00z euro says day 8-10 is the period to watch now - i feel like the big threat is being pushed back and back -but then again HM said there will be a few suppressed storms before a big one in early april. That theory is strongly supported by the euro/gfs tonight. but fwiw, verbatim tonight the euro has a 988mb low over NYC all rain Yeah, It takes the low from the lower Mississippi River valley south of us more or less right over NJ. Would probably be a big snow producer for northern New England and Western PA. I would settle for a strong bombing Noreaster with impressive winds if we can't get any snow out of it. In any event, it's a good sign to see that the storm is there on multiple models. Plenty of time to hammer out the specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Gfs has the storm cutting and hitting the Midwest lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Gfs has the storm cutting and hitting the Midwest lol You're talking about next Wednesday, right Ant? What about Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 You're talking about next Wednesday, right Ant? What about Sunday? SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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