uncle W Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 April 1982 SHOULD have been over 10" for NYC. End of story. Brooklyn got 9" on 4/6/1982...Dingmans Ferry Pa 1200ft up got 13.5"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 he really should be 5 posted. Its the last week in March and he is trying to make this thing into the Boxing Day storm. Spring snowstorms tend to be thread the needle events if you want widespread heavy snows. He wants to ignore climo but you cant in these situation. It plays a big big role that makes these situations marginal that would be very favorable in January. This setup the way some models are advertising would be a full blown noreaster with mesoscale banding features and intense snowfall rates in banding. To say that the snow wouldn't accumulate where the banding sets up is ridiculous, regardless of the time of day. I'm not trying to turn this into Boxing Day. All I asked was if this had a chance to exceed that since alot of people are really buying into the idea of a big one. I don't know which way this is going to turn out, but the signals have been there for a MECS on several models for several days and cann't be ignored. I didn't say to throw climo completely out the door, but it really has no bearing on the future. Just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it cann't happen. Our records only go back so far, and are probably questionable past a certain date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 April 1982 SHOULD have been over 10" for NYC. End of story. I have no problem with the NYC 9.6" measurement for 4/6/82. I was there that day. I was standing on the corner by Macy*s Herald Square when there was awesome lightning and thunder. Inside, they had their "Spring Flower Show". It was a great storm, but a quick mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Interesting to note that it hasn't snowed over 10" in NYC in April in nearly 100 years. It's a statistical quirk-- Newark had 13" of snow in April 1982 and Long Island had over a foot on April 9-10, 1996. Also, 8 inches here on April 7, 2003. So three warning criteria events in the past 30 years-- 4/82, 4/96, 4/03-- one of which was a Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Personally I like the fact that we've had accumulating snowfalls in 1/3 of the Aprils of the past 30 years and warning criteria events 3x here since 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's a statistical quirk-- Newark had 13" of snow in April 1982 and Long Island had over a foot on April 9-10, 1996. I wouldn't say that. Such discrepancies are not as apparent for early/mid season storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 there has been only two storms 10" or more in NYC from this date forward...4/2/1915 and 4/13/1875...9.6" fell on 4/6/1982 and 8.5" 4/1/1924...These are the historic Spring snowstorms since 1869...I won't rule out a snowfall as big as one of these next week...But that would be bordering historic proportions... Hey Unc, I know you said March 29th was our biggest snowfall accumulation day after the first day of spring in NYC history, but let's say you take recent history (from the 80s onwards), what's the biggest accumulation day after the first day of Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Personally I like the fact that we've had accumulating snowfalls in 1/3 of the Aprils of the past 30 years and warning criteria events 3x here since 1982. 3x in the past 30 years means it is overwhelmingly unlikely such an event would occur on any given day in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I wouldn't say that. Such discrepancies are not as apparent for early/mid season storms. Yeah, UHI is involved also.... Manhattan has a tough time accumulating as do most of the highly urbanized areas. Im not sure about April 1982 though, because the temps were around 20 and the snow actually stuck around for a week, and we had another storm (minor, about an inch) a week after it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 3x in the past 30 years means it is overwhelmingly unlikely such an event would occur on any given day in April. Yeah it's unlikely, but people were saying it's nearly impossible lol. 1/3 is for any accumulation 1/10 for 6 inches and above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The 1/10 number is interesting because it's what I also use for HECS and Historic winters. It just so happens that we average a HECS one of out of every 10 years (16 inch plus snowstorm) and we average 50 inches of snow in a year one of out of every 10 years. Those numbers may have changed with our recent spurt of heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Personally I like the fact that we've had accumulating snowfalls in 1/3 of the Aprils of the past 30 years and warning criteria events 3x here since 1982. 2006 was nice even though it was a short burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The 1/10 number is interesting because it's what I also use for HECS and Historic winters. It just so happens that we average a HECS one of out of every 10 years (16 inch plus snowstorm) and we average 50 inches of snow in a year one of out of every 10 years. Those numbers may have changed with our recent spurt of heavy snows. They changed a ton since December 2009 and February 2010 and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 2006 was nice even though it was a short burst. Yes it was.... My list of accumulating snowfalls in April (all were between 1 and 10, except April 1983, which was 19-20) are: 1982 (2), 1983, 1990, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2003, 2006 ..... we seem to have had a cluster between 1996 and 2006. 9 out of 29 Aprils or approximately 1/3 with accumulating snowfall and 3/29 warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yes it was.... My list of accumulating snowfalls in April (all were between 1 and 10, except April 1983, which was 19-20) are: 1982 (2), 1983, 1990, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2003, 2006 ..... we seem to have had a cluster between 1996 and 2006. 9 out of 29 Aprils or approximately 1/3 with accumulating snowfall and 3/29 warning criteria. Didn't we have some snow in April 2004? I could have sworn we did because I noted to myself that we had two snow accumulations in two straight Aprils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 06z DGEX..anybody see the March '01 look-alike PV Lobe over SE Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Didn't we have some snow in April 2004? I could have sworn we did because I noted to myself that we had two snow accumulations in two straight Aprils. 1996 and 1997.... 2003-04 was an interesting winter and somewhat like this winter in that we had a cold and snowy December and January (even colder than this year), a mild and snowless February and a nice 2 week period of snow in the middle of March. I think it was better out in Eastern LI than NYC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 you're, you're English FTL. Spring will be back within a few days. I can wait. One of these storms during the following 7-10 days will come to fruition, then it's off to the races. My favorite pattern would be to have a big snowstorm in the first week of April and then be hitting 90 plus by the middle of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 1996 and 1997.... 2003-04 was an interesting winter and somewhat like this winter in that we had a cold and snowy December and January (even colder than this year), a mild and snowless February and a nice 2 week period of snow in the middle of March. I think it was better out in Eastern LI than NYC though. So no snow in April 2004? I guess I just recall the mid-late March snow for 2004 (on Ray's page) and am thinking that it incorrectly occurred in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 So no snow in April 2004? I guess I just recall the mid-late March snow for 2004 (on Ray's page) and am thinking that it incorrectly occurred in April. Yeah, I dont remember any snow in April 2004, but maybe you had something in NJ? I just remember measurable snow in the Aprils I listed-- 2006 being the most recent, when we got 1-2" in like 2 hours in the middle of the day when we started the day in the upper 40s with sunshine and ended the day the same way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Can we please get away from past storms and focus on the threat? Thanks. 12zgfs never gets the storm up coast.Stil there theoretically, just not the look we want. Too be expected this far out though I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Can we please get away from past storms and focus on the threat? Thanks. 12zgfs never gets the storm up coast.Stil there theoretically, just not the look we want. Too be expected this far out though I guess. yea...it doesnt get it up the coast but the potential is there. im just not seeing anything on the gfs that will spring the surface low NE. what does todays EC look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah, I dont remember any snow in April 2004, but maybe you had something in NJ? I just remember measurable snow in the Aprils I listed-- 2006 being the most recent, when we got 1-2" in like 2 hours in the middle of the day when we started the day in the upper 40s with sunshine and ended the day the same way You are 100% correct for April 2004: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2004/4/23/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar I must have got it confused with the mid-late March snows that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 yea...it doesnt get it up the coast but the potential is there. im just not seeing anything on the gfs that will spring the surface low NE. what does todays EC look like? EC will come out in 15 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You are 100% correct for April 2004: http://www.wundergro...y.html#calendar I must have got it confused with the mid-late March snows that year. Either that or you were thinking about April 2006.. either way its understandable-- we had a really nice streak going back then like now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Either that or you were thinking about April 2006.. either way its understandable-- we had a really nice streak going back then like now lol. I dont see any accumulation or trace for ewr/nyc for april 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 126, deep moisture over the south. H5 looking ok.really big 50-50, Pna not as ampd.. Broad lp in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 126, deep moisture over the south. H5 looking ok.really big 50-50, Pna not as ampd.. Broad lp in the SE. What does it show for Sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 By 138, 1004 low sliding ots. H5 never gets amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 What does it show for Sun? Virga. The .10" line to Md, .01" into southern pa. About parallel to 40N. Sorry for the slow updates, Im on my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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