earthlight Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 High thickness snowstorm at hr 168..sfc low is going off the M/A coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Secondary takes too long to develop and the CCB never really gets going...but its still a nice signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Secondary takes too long to develop and the CCB never really gets going...but its still a nice signal This is the second most favorable setup we have had all winter, odd considering it is late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 This is the second most favorable setup we have had all winter, odd considering it is late March. Don't agree...December 26 being the first, Jan 12 being the second, you can probably throw a few in there too ahead of this one. It's favorable, but it's not in the top three. The setups prior to the storms this winter were very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Don't agree...December 26 being the first, Jan 12 being the second, you can probably throw a few in there too ahead of this one. It's favorable, but it's not in the top three. The setups prior to the storms this winter were very good. Based primarily on the pattern depicted at H5 in the day 6-8 timeframe, I think the pattern is much more favorable then the majority of snow threats we had this winter. This pattern most resembles the late December pattern. Strong high latitude blocking, spiked ridge well into Canada, cold confluent flow over the NE. The features, if they occurred as depicted, I think would be most comparable to the Dec 26th storm. Jan 12th was also favorable, but I would make the argument, the features at H5 were not as supportive. Had strong high latitude blocking been in place, the storm would have been a larger event, most likely for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The split flow out west allows the SW energy to move into the base of the trough while the energy from the northern shortwave is forced south under the block and phases with the energy in the base of the trough. With a strong canadian hp to our north and high latitude blocking to keep these elements locked in, cyclogenesis is often the result. These types of setups often spawn late season nor'easters that bring significant snows to some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Really like the signal for a HECS during this timeframe based on ECMWF. Could be similar to 12/26 or 1/12 Redux based on pattern. Maybe a NESIS 3 type event for Philly NYC and Boston corridor. Potential for 1-2 foot totals for next week's situation at full potential. Very strong KU signal as one would possibly want for end of March. Looks like perfect pattern to me. After that spring will likely come in with rapidly collapsing cold pattern giving way to normal mild to warmer spring pattern. Can the HECS next week end the snow for the season with a powerful encore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 News 12 saying upper 40s and rain for next Wednesday.... I haven't seen anyone else put out a forecast like that, so I don't know what model they're using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 News 12 saying upper 40s and rain for next Wednesday.... I haven't seen anyone else put out a forecast like that, so I don't know what model they're using. It's called being conservative... No news agency in their right mind would mention big storm next week. Not sure why you or anyone else is surprised at this forecast they put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 If we see a KU event next week, people are going to think the world is coming to an end. Eventually this pattern is going to break down, but it sure will be a fun ride until it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Who here thinks we could exceed Boxing Day with this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Who here thinks we could exceed Boxing Day with this event? 30"?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Who here thinks we could exceed Boxing Day with this event? Dude you are out of control. We need to bring back the weenie tags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Who here thinks we could exceed Boxing Day with this event? way over the top.... Not even close, we would need a big monster cutoff low, become vertically stacked. Which isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Dude you are out of control. We need to bring back the weenie tags. It was a simple question, I do realize your like the "snow nazi" and want spring but your just gong to have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Who here thinks we could exceed Boxing Day with this event? That would highly depend on where you live as there was great variability in snowfall distribution. For example, I just got a meager foot out of that storm... so, although very unlikely... for me, there is always a remote possibility it could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 News 12 saying upper 40s and rain for next Wednesday.... I haven't seen anyone else put out a forecast like that, so I don't know what model they're using. It's because the the general public will never believe a major east coast snowstorm will happen next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It was a simple question, I do realize your like the "snow nazi" and want spring but your just gong to have to wait. you're, you're English FTL. Spring will be back within a few days. I can wait. One of these storms during the following 7-10 days will come to fruition, then it's off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's because the the general public will never believe a major east coast snowstorm will happen next week. I can understand the conservative nauture of forecasting especially this far out. My forecast would be for a 40% chance of rain and snow.... It allows you to keep things conservative but at the same time lets people know that snow is a possability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 there has been only two storms 10" or more in NYC from this date forward...4/2/1915 and 4/13/1875...9.6" fell on 4/6/1982 and 8.5" 4/1/1924...These are the historic Spring snowstorms since 1869...I won't rule out a snowfall as big as one of these next week...But that would be bordering historic proportions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 there has been only two storms 10" or more in NYC from this date forward...4/2/1915 and 4/13/1875...9.6" fell on 4/6/1982 and 8.5" 4/1/1924...These are the historic Spring snowstorms since 1869...I won't rule out a snowfall as big as one of these next week...But that would be bordering historic proportions... Interesting to note that it hasn't snowed over 10" in NYC in April in nearly 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Temps look pretty cold enough and the setup looks nearly ideal. Also, this event won't be preceeded by above normal temps. Were talking about the possability of an intense coastal storm with mesoscale banding features. It doesn't sound like it will have any trouble accumulating in most spots. Why people are puttng so much weight in climo when this year has been anything but normal I will have no clue. What happened in the past really doesn't have any affect on the future. Records were made to be broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 there has been only two storms 10" or more in NYC from this date forward...4/2/1915 and 4/13/1875...9.6" fell on 4/6/1982 and 8.5" 4/1/1924...These are the historic Spring snowstorms since 1869...I won't rule out a snowfall as big as one of these next week...But that would be bordering historic proportions... April 1982 SHOULD have been over 10" for NYC. End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Temps look pretty cold enough and the setup looks nearly ideal. Also, this event won't be preceeded by above normal temps. Were talking about the possability of an intense coastal storm with mesoscale banding features. It doesn't sound like it will have any trouble accumulating in most spots. Why people are puttng so much weight in climo when this year has been anything but normal I will have no clue. What happened in the past really doesn't have any affect on the future. Records were made to be broken. disregard the past at your own peril... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Temps look pretty cold enough and the setup looks nearly ideal. Also, this event won't be preceeded by above normal temps. Were talking about the possability of an intense coastal storm with mesoscale banding features. It doesn't sound like it will have any trouble accumulating in most spots. Why people are puttng so much weight in climo when this year has been anything but normal I will have no clue. What happened in the past really doesn't have any affect on the future. Records were made to be broken. Right, with a mid-Sept sun angle. Whatever ends up falling during the day won't accumulate very much unless it is extremely heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Interesting to note that it hasn't snowed over 10" in NYC in April in nearly 100 years. Indeed. Though Newark measured 13" in the 4/6/82 event..as did many areas measure 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Indeed. Though Newark measured 13" in the 4/6/82 event..as did many areas measure 10+ yes, NYC even undermeasured the 1982 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 disregard the past at your own peril... I'm not saying it should be disregarded, it should be considered, but someone shouldn't be basing there forecast purely on climo and thats been happening quite a bit as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 there has been only two storms 10" or more in NYC from this date forward...4/2/1915 and 4/13/1875...9.6" fell on 4/6/1982 and 8.5" 4/1/1924...These are the historic Spring snowstorms since 1869...I won't rule out a snowfall as big as one of these next week...But that would be bordering historic proportions... Yeah,with the means coming up by the end of March,everything has to come together just right to get warning level snows to accumulate. KNYC 3/30 55 39 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Dude you are out of control. We need to bring back the weenie tags. he really should be 5 posted. Its the last week in March and he is trying to make this thing into the Boxing Day storm. Spring snowstorms tend to be thread the needle events if you want widespread heavy snows. He wants to ignore climo but you cant in these situation. It plays a big big role that makes these situations marginal that would be very favorable in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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