earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Damn right. Would be snow to the beaches. Probably accumulating at the storm's height. But sea level locations rarely get heavy accumulations in Spring no matter the synoptic setup. Would probably end up something like 4" in Midtown, 6" in Riverdale trending to >12" in elevated NNJ, SENY, and WCT. Surface temperatures are difficult to cool to freezing this time of year when the airmass is stale. But snow will accumulate at 34F or 35F if it is heavy enough, albeit with poor ratios. Intensity always wins over climo, sun angle, ground temperature, and almost any other factor. The 18z GFS charts are beautiful. But I completely agree though that this kind of perfect evolution and progression is very unlikely. Agree with this entire post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 You were in Boston for April '97? wow, that's gotta be a heck of an experience. Dorchester just to the south of town actually. Nobody expected it. It was really warm the day before and everyone was ready for spring. Started as rain and seemed like it would be a minor event but the timing was perfect. The brunt of the storm arrived after dark (unlike in the NYC metro), which allowed the temperature to drop to near freezing even at Logan. And it was really really heavy. It compacted and melted really quickly so it didn't feel like a classic blizzard (similar to NYC's 2006 storm), but the next morning was absolutely absurd outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 March 31st 1980 had a noreaster with rain that turned to wet snow when the precipitation came down heavy...Another storm in April 1971 was similar...Slushy inch or two in the city to major amounts in the high elevation's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 So far the 1st 3 models of the night have shifted SE for Wednesday night storm. Ram and eta are barely misses. Srefs give us .25"-.50". Nam also further se then 18z run.....very light qpf into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I can tell you one thing, I was out in the Poconos yesterday and they still have a solid 2-3" snowpack in most spots. I just left West Milford and it was 25 its now 33 here. Temps are very cold out ahead of the upcoming events west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I know its the 84 hr nam, but it looks very nice at 500mb for the 2nd storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 where's Tombo? who's gunna give updates for the 0Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 where's Tombo? who's gunna give updates for the 0Z GFS? He might have a life and job, you do know that information about the 00z gfs is open to the public starting at 1130pm est? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I know its the 84 hr nam, but it looks very nice at 500mb for the 2nd storm... Agreed. Nice western ridge and a strong mid-US trof with pronounced jetstreak diving in. And that lead wave really keeps a lid on things until the trof axis is more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Agreed. Nice western ridge and a strong mid-US trof with pronounced jetstreak diving in. And that lead wave really keeps a lid on things until the trof axis is more favorable. Yeah we might be in a case of give or take...have a nice lead system and lose the 2nd ots or shear the 1st event se and have a stronger 2nd event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I lived in Boston for that! Awesome. I was referring to the NYC tri-state area specifically, although it's generally true regardless of region. I didn't mean that it can never happen. But interestingly, that 97 storm is actually a good case in point for our area. I recall reading that there was a slushy inch of snow along the Hudson near West Point and 10" near the football stadium at 500 or 600ft. On 4/7/03 I had at least 7" of snow at my place right on the ocean during the daylight hours, and that was hardly a massive noreaster. It can certainly happen almost anywhere given the right conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 4/7/03 I had at least 7" of snow at my place right on the ocean during the daylight hours, and that was hardly a massive noreaster. It can certainly happen almost anywhere given the right conditions. I can't disagree. And that's a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Agreed. Nice western ridge and a strong mid-US trof with pronounced jetstreak diving in. And that lead wave really keeps a lid on things until the trof axis is more favorable. yeah good point about the lead off wave, keeps heights from going out of control and the low cutting well west of us probably..It might keep the second storm off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 4/7/03 I had at least 7" of snow at my place right on the ocean during the daylight hours, and that was hardly a massive noreaster. It can certainly happen almost anywhere given the right conditions. On April 10th 1996, even later than 4/7/03, Monmouth County and much of southern NJ down to interior Atlantic County received 8" of snow with only a 996-1000mb low offshore. Surface temperatures were right around 32F. Granted, thicknesses were quite low, but sigificant snows can happen in April under the right conditons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Nice discussion going on here, I'm hooked. This week will be a nail-biter for both systems, but a strong low off the coast will bring snows even to the City with the pattern in place and a High to our northeast, and the Wednesday storm will, if it happens, come off the cold air we've been having since Friday. This is just nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 54 hr GFS might be a hair stronger with the first wave, but nothing to write home about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Much more north than the NAM is the GFS at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 It's definitely a bit colder at 850 for those watching in the mid-atlantic. Not sure it will make a big difference though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Might be a bit more amplified at 90 hrs, but the shortwaves are all over the place within the mean trough. This could do anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 It's much farther north with the wave at 105 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 it kinda escapes the base of the trough, and the trough was a bit broader this run. 18z has a sharper trough, and a slower evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Hate bringing up the UKMET again, but for a dry model, it has copious moisture south of the Mason-Dixon line at 72 hours for its 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I can tell you one thing, I was out in the Poconos yesterday and they still have a solid 2-3" snowpack in most spots. I just left West Milford and it was 25 its now 33 here. Temps are very cold out ahead of the upcoming events west of the city. If it's from the several inches that fell there a few days ago, I don't see how it could be solid snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GFS and NAM now agree first storm is a miss to the south and the 6Z GFS brings the second storm closer to the coast once again but weaker and warmer - by then the NAO is in positive territory............. . Just to show how confusing this set up is Upton still is going with rain first and second system and Alan Kasper NJ101.5 is mentioning accumulating snow wednesday night .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 If it's from the several inches that fell there a few days ago, I don't see how it could be solid snowpack. By solid I didn't mean "frozen solid" I meant that its a legit snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GFS and NAM now agree first storm is a miss to the south and the 6Z GFS brings the second storm closer to the coast once again but weaker and warmer - by then the NAO is in positive territory............. . Just to show how confusing this set up is Upton still is going with rain first and second system and Alan Kasper NJ101.5 is mentioning accumulating snow wednesday night .... 6z GFS isn't a bad look for a storm, but it never fully develops the cold conveyer belt. The 500mb low doesn't close off so you don't have upper level support for a large deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Dorchester just to the south of town actually. Nobody expected it. It was really warm the day before and everyone was ready for spring. Started as rain and seemed like it would be a minor event but the timing was perfect. The brunt of the storm arrived after dark (unlike in the NYC metro), which allowed the temperature to drop to near freezing even at Logan. And it was really really heavy. It compacted and melted really quickly so it didn't feel like a classic blizzard (similar to NYC's 2006 storm), but the next morning was absolutely absurd outside. Nice!! See avatar..lol. I lived in Hyde Park, on the west side at about 200'ASL. It was accumulating in the aftn as Logan was a mix. Just a few miles and a couple of hundred feet made all the difference, but by dark..all hell broke loose everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On April 10th 1996, even later than 4/7/03, Monmouth County and much of southern NJ down to interior Atlantic County received 8" of snow with only a 996-1000mb low offshore. Surface temperatures were right around 32F. Granted, thicknesses were quite low, but sigificant snows can happen in April under the right conditons. Yup-- April snowstorms are awesome when they happen Parts of Long Island got over a foot with that one. And we didnt get screwed in April 97 because of temps, we got screwed because of a dryslot-- 8 inches fell in Central and Southern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 If it's from the several inches that fell there a few days ago, I don't see how it could be solid snowpack. His numbers might be off... I have relatives that live in the Poconos and they said there was still over 6 inches on the ground there. They actually had solid snowpack from early December to Mid March and only saw grass for a few days before the last storm happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 In Springtime it's very difficult for locations near sea level to get more than, say, 6" of snow, even if the models show what might otherwise be a blizzard in January. No, this isnt true-- specifically because SST are actually colder right now than they are for most of the winter. I've seen enough heavy accumulating snows in April-- namely 3 of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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