uncle W Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 i wonder how many times N-NJ NYC has had a snowstorm miss to the south after march 25th. March 31st, 1964... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z GFS close to pulling something off, the setup aloft looks great. you are talking about the 144 hr storm right? many chances after this shot as well with the golden pattern staying put Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 you are talking about the 144 hr storm right? many chances after this shot as well with the golden pattern staying put That's what this thread is for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 That's what this thread is for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 gefs starting to honk, north of the OP already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Here was the 06z DGEX Mega HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 GFS Ensembles pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 hr 114 light snow up to nyc....mod preciep south of the mason dixon line hr 120 light snow continues...gfs had 850's well below zero and temps in the upper 20's low 30's entire event so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 hr 126 mod snow for the area..... hr 129 still mod snow...... hr 135 preciep out of the area....850's are below the zero the entire event and surface never goes above 32... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 hr 126 mod snow for the area..... hr 129 still mod snow...... hr 135 preciep out of the area....850's are below the zero the entire event and surface never goes above 32... it comes in really fast as early at hr 111, nice hit but i'd like to see the shortwave dig more so we get a stronger low and more precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Better run, seems much more north with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 fwiw hr 177 secondary low develops over hse for the 2nd costal storm next week....gives us another chance at accumlating snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I really like the pattern for the weekend storm, but we need the shortwave to dig more and create more ridging in front of it to get a big Nor'easter. We have a fairly west--->east zonal flow due to the fact that there isn't a classic +PNA over MT/ID, so we need the shortwave to dive down and allow heights to rise off the coast. The pattern is very classic in most aspects with a west-based NAO block, 50/50 LOW, and cold air entrenched in the Northeast due to a strong Canadian high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 awesome visual zucker and it is indeed classic. If we can get that ridge in the west with the axis over Wyoming to pump more, we may get the amplification we need to get a stronger coastal. Because this storm is definately not cutting to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Why did I cancel my KU call? It sure is looking very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 00Z GGEM gung-ho for next weeks threat, though I temper that by saying it is the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 00Z GGEM gung-ho for next weeks threat, though I temper that by saying it is the GGEM. You are talking about the storm next Wednesday, not the one this weekend? I heard the 0z GGEM wasn't impressed with the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 You are talking about the storm next Wednesday, not the one this weekend? I heard the 0z GGEM wasn't impressed with the weekend storm. Yes, although it had a reflection of the Sunday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yes, although it had a reflection of the Sunday storm. 0z GFS has about .3" QPF for the weekend storm, all snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I don't think anyone right now knows (exact dates) when these storms are. GFS has changed dates several times with respect to the 28-30th and now has storms the 26th-27th, the 29th-30th, and the 1st-2nd. GGEM absolutely crushes us the 27th-28th. The title of this thread could be misleading or confusing as the models wrestle with many possible events or one really big event and move the dates one day this way or that way. Not easy to keep up with but very interesting. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I don't think anyone right now knows (exact dates) when these storms are. GFS has changed dates several times with respect to the 28-30th and now has storms the 26th-27th, the 29th-30th, and the 1st-2nd. GGEM absolutely crushes us the 27th-28th. The title of this thread could be misleading or confusing as the models wrestle with many possible events or one really big event and move the dates one day this way or that way. Not easy to keep up with but very interesting. WX/PT I think there are basically two major storms in the long-range, meaning beyond the Wednesday/Thursday overrunning. There's an event Sunday, March 27th and then another one on Wednesday March 30th. Of course the models differ in their exact timing, but this is the gist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 1000mb low over the TN valley..Plenty of cold air in place and its collecting moisture, need heights to start rising fast to get solid precip up here - hr 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 1004mb low goes off Hatteras at 132. Moderate to heavy snow for all of Southern and Central VA up to Ocean City MD at that hour with the 850 freezing line straddling the NC/VA border. Light to moderate snows up to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Blah to that solution, supressed to our south, needs alittle work.. Next wave gearing up over the 4 corners at hr 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 We saw this in December, when models were overdoing the first couple waves before the real deal. Usually the NAO transition storms are the legit threats and the others are either squashed or non issues. Should the pattern continue and the 50-50 low remains an entity much longer, then the real deal is probably not the 27-28th wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 We saw this in December, when models were overdoing the first couple waves before the real deal. Usually the NAO transition storms are the legit threats and the others are either squashed or non issues. Should the pattern continue and the 50-50 low remains an entity much longer, then the real deal is probably not the 27-28th wave. makes sense..dec 19th the storm was squashed then came the monster..This is pretty much whats being advertised on the gfs and euro tonight. What a monster storm on the 192 hr euro right now. That is probably the big one to correspond with the NAO transition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 makes sense..dec 19th the storm was squashed then came the monster..This is pretty much whats being advertised on the gfs and euro tonight. What a monster storm on the 192 hr euro right now. That is probably the big one to correspond with the NAO transition Before I go to bed, more details on the hr. 192 storm on the Euro? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Before I go to bed, more details on the hr. 192 storm on the Euro? Thanks. its not a big hit verbatim but the 500mb setup is awesome, HM is right, the weekend storm is probably not going to be the big one out of this NAO pattern right now. The wave that enters the picture after will correspond with the NAO transition and possibly be our last noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Take it however you want but either Weds. or the weekend NYC is GOING to see accumulating snow. Don't ask me "what causes you to think this?" It will happen both storms have potential for a decent hit especially given the intensity of precip which this late in the season is IMO more important than storm track, intensity of SFC low is also more important than track as well. But I'd love to have a MET chime in and give me their .02$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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