Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Yes, I just saw this too, but after that December 26 debacle, I am afraid to read too much into anything at this point. But yes, I guess this is a possible explanation. This might help .. this could explain the difference on the ECM run... FWIW RECENT ECMWF RUNS HAVE GENERALLY OFFERED PLAUSIBLESOLUTIONS BUT THEY HAVE ALSO BEEN SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANTCONTINUITY CHANGES OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. THE 00Z VERSION AND EVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z RUN SEEM TOO FAST CONSIDERING HOW WELL ORGANIZED THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS CURRENTLY LOOK OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC APPROACHING AND EXITING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR CONTINUITY ASSESSMENT IS THAT ONLYTHE 00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAD ACCESS TO ADDITIONAL DATA FROM WSR TARGETING RECON FLIGHTS OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Yes, I just saw this too, but after that December 26 debacle, I am afraid to read too much into anything at this point. But yes, I guess this is a possible explanation. LOL that's a really good point. I lost some respect for HPC that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Yes, sad but true. LOL that's a really good point. I lost some respect for HPC that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 15z ETA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Upton says all rain both storms - what else is new -- so we are tracking a rain storm - but on the other hand JB says snow - someone is going to be wrong http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Upton says all rain both storms - what else is new http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KOKX.html Just like they did at this point last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Their forecasts are consistent with these storms in Northern NJ. Rain and a high of 51. Then we have snow and high of 37. Upton says all rain both storms - what else is new -- so we are tracking a rain storm - but on the other hand JB says snow - someone is going to be wrong http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Upton says all rain both storms - what else is new -- so we are tracking a rain storm - but on the other hand JB says snow - someone is going to be wrong http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KOKX.html Guess they haven't taken a look at the HPC experimental Winter Weather Guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z nam looked pretty good, nighttime arrival + decent 850's to start.. Lets see what it has to offer now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Looking at the HPC experimental winter weather guidance for Day 3, they are quite bullish on 0.10" of freezing rain for the Virginia coastal plain, even though there is no chance of that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Looking at the HPC experimental winter weather guidance for Day 3, they are quite bullish on 0.10" of freezing rain for the Virginia coastal plain, even though there is no chance of that happening. what is the link for that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php what is the link for that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 pretty good hit setting up on the nam 84 hrs+...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 One thing is for sure, at night, that is all snow, even into NYC according to soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 pretty good hit setting up on the nam 84 hrs+...fwiw The NAM has been terrible as of late, not to mention this is the 84hr NAM were talking about which never should be take seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Maybe I am wrong, but I remember the NAM being pretty good with the last storm, better than the GFS, even at 84 hrs. In fact, I remember the 84 hr NAM being better than the GFS on many occasions this winter. The NAM has been terrible as of late, not to mention this is the 84hr NAM were talking about which never should be take seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Nam looks similar to the Euro for the mid week event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Just like they did at this point last time. They then issued a Winter Weather Advisory For NYC and LI while it was snowing a sleeting as 1-3 inches fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Maybe I am wrong, but I remember the NAM being pretty good with the last storm, better than the GFS, even at 84 hrs. In fact, I remember the 84 hr NAM being better than the GFS on many occasions this winter. you are correct, but his type of comment comes up for every storm about the NAM's performance. Im sure everyone in here knows the NAM is unstable pretty much at any hour. But it does have its moments and it destroyed the gfs with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The NAM has been terrible as of late, not to mention this is the 84hr NAM were talking about which never should be take seriously. what part of my post did i not express that? "fwiw" was pretty key with that, here i was trying to avoide a brief sentence about the nam 84 hrs out. Plus you should prob practice what you preach 7-14.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 One thing is for sure, at night, that is all snow, even into NYC according to soundings. That's definitely the key for areas near the coast. We saw with the last storm here that nothing was able to accumulate during the day, but it was able to stick decently at night. Temps for this next potential event look pretty similar, so the key is getting it at night. The timing right now looks pretty good with most of the event happening Wednesday night. Hopefully we can squeeze out a couple inches again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php thanks for the link but that shows a clipper type system coming down ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 thanks for the link but that shows a clipper type system coming down ??? That shows the expected percentage of 1,2,4,6,8,12, etc inches of snow. Not QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 With the difference between the Euro OP and the Ensemble ,my guess is that the OP will look different in the next run or two than 12z today. We'll see if the OP moves to dampen out the first wave and place more weight behind the second.The disturbance is still south of the Aleutians today so the models will need more time to work out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Im stealing Earthlight's job but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The EC mean looks very much like the GFS mean, reforming a low near Hatteras and deepening it as it moves north off the east coast to a point just east of the Benchmark. With the difference between the Euro OP and the Ensemble ,my guess is that the OP will look different in the next run or two than 12z today. We'll see if the OP moves to dampen out the first wave and place more weight behind the second.The disturbance is still south of the Aleutians today so the models will need more time to work out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 That is exactly what the GFS and EC mean look like, just not as robust of course. Im stealing Earthlight's job but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Big time thunderstorm development over the northern Gulf at 93 hrs. It will probably merge with the shortwave coming south from the northern plains states and develop a low near the coastal Carolinas. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The trough is pretty deep at 105 hrs. Don't know what will happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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