Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Areas just NW of the city are -4 or less. -2 850's are too warm for all snow in April chances are the boundary layers will have parts greater then 0 meaning a mix or even rain with an 850 of -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 JB makes a forecast says anyone North of Mason Dixon sees accumulating snow enough to stop a golf outing mid week and/or late week http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?category_name=blog_home_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 ugh, the only good thing is that the nao is going positive. Hopefully that will warm things up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 ugh, the only good thing is that the nao is going positive. Hopefully that will warm things up soon. You're a one trick pony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu...MC_12z/f132.gif apparently, the CMC is showing a large snow/icestorm for saturday. thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Euro brings several inches of snow on Wednesday night NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 The Euro is actually a nice hit at 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 By 108 hours .5" liquid up to the NJ/NY border and into SW CT. .75" liquid line is north of Philly to just south of Sandy Hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 will most of this fall as rain or snow for coastal areas in NJ and NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I don't have access to Euro sfc temps. However, considering how quickly the coastal low takes over and intensifies on the Euro (causing winds to quickly turn NE/NNE) and considering the nighttime timing of most of the precip., coastal areas could very well see snow as well in the Euro scenario. The Euro is likely overdone, since the trailing shortwave will likely amplify more and cause the lead one to minor out by Wed night. Euro brings several inches of snow on Wednesday night NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 IT apparently did away with the Friday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 IT apparently did away with the Friday storm. Yeah the 2nd system trys to catch up with the first costal.....goes ots....looks like a nice hit of snow wed night for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 do you have QPF for the major airports including BLM? Yeah the 2nd system trys to catch up with the first costal.....goes ots....looks like a nice hit of snow wed night for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 surface temps of +1.3 to +2.0 at NYC with about .4 falling on Wednesday night +.6 at Andover, NJ with that stuff on Wednesday night I don't have access to Euro sfc temps. However, considering how quickly the coastal low takes over and intensifies on the Euro (causing winds to quickly turn NE/NNE) and considering the nighttime timing of most of the precip., coastal areas could very well see snow as well in the Euro scenario. The Euro is likely overdone, since the trailing shortwave will likely amplify more and cause the lead one to minor out by Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 By 108 hours .5" liquid up to the NJ/NY border and into SW CT. .75" liquid line is north of Philly to just south of Sandy Hook do you have QPF for the major airports including BLM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 BLM is .77 on Wednesday night with surface temps of +1.9 to +2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 fantasy land but hr 150-155 euro gets us will a miller B....ptype looks to be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Yeah the 2nd system trys to catch up with the first costal.....goes ots....looks like a nice hit of snow wed night for the area. thats scary - thats what the 12Z GFS is suggesting also - second one misses south - so basically the 12Z EURO just adds to the confusion - doesn't look like the second storm issue will be resolved for at least another day or 2 but the 1st system mid week is gaining support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Brings another .63 to Andover over the weekend, probably a mixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Euro soundings are colder at surface then the past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 It just misses us to the south with another one on Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12Z JMA is similar to 12Z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 -2 850's are too warm for all snow in April chances are the boundary layers will have parts greater then 0 meaning a mix or even rain with an 850 of -2 We just had snow three days ago with -2 at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 With the Wednesday night storm, the 12z JMA has the .25 line north of the NJ/NY with the 850 line along Rt. 80, then it bombs the Friday storm out in very similar fashion to the UKMET with rain for everyone along the East Coast, then it brings more precip in Euro fashion next weekend with the 850 line again near Rt. 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Correct - even had snow with 850 mb temps of -1C in some cases. We just had snow three days ago with -2 at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 We just had snow three days ago with -2 at 850. one thing about the snowfall we just had - intensity was the determining factor once the precip began to get lighter the mixtures started then rain - boundary layers were marginal and near the surface was above 32 in NYC Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z FIM shows a coastal bomb. I'm over my cousins house, so I can't post the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Interesting. I think we have a chance of accumulating snow on Wednesday night and we will just have to wait and see what happens on Friday. Correct - even had snow with 850 mb temps of -1C in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 one thing about the snowfall we just had - intensity was the determining factor once the precip began to get lighter the mixtures started then rain - boundary layers were marginal and near the surface was above 32 in NYC Metro Of course! And what makes you think we won't see decent intensity with this next event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 This might help .. this could explain the difference on the ECM run... FWIW RECENT ECMWF RUNS HAVE GENERALLY OFFERED PLAUSIBLESOLUTIONS BUT THEY HAVE ALSO BEEN SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANTCONTINUITY CHANGES OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. THE 00Z VERSION AND EVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z RUN SEEM TOO FAST CONSIDERING HOW WELL ORGANIZED THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS CURRENTLY LOOK OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC APPROACHING AND EXITING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR CONTINUITY ASSESSMENT IS THAT ONLYTHE 00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAD ACCESS TO ADDITIONAL DATA FROM WSR TARGETING RECON FLIGHTS OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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