Analog96 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I agree it does not seem good in this area, but I am just wondering if it just seems that way to us? Maybe it does not do as well with the low pressure centers with individual storms that we pay most attention to, but it does better when we are not paying as much attention with less important storms? Or maybe it does better in Europe. I don't know. Thank you for your input on this. Here's an interesting point too. Do I really care how well a model does with the placement of a high pressure center when we have fair weather? I care a lot more how that model does when it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Exactly, and I am wondering if that is the case here? Here's an interesting point too. Do I really care how well a model does with the placement of a high pressure center when we have fair weather? I care a lot more how that model does when it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Keep in mind, those charts are hemispheric. If anyone actually thinks the UKMET is the 2nd best model in this area, they have never made an actual forecast. Exactly, the UKMET may have good hemispheric verification scores, but it seems to do poorly with northeast storms...especially during the winter. I remember it was one of the last to catch on to the 12/26 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Yes, it looks like it actually gives some locations an inch of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Exactly, and I am wondering if that is the case here? Very well could be. I haven't dedicated enough time to really study that. But I do know that the UKMET is pretty awful for East Coast lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 GFS appears to be caving to its ensemble members on this run. Has a deepening low near Hatteras at 132 hrs on this run. Looks to be sending it out to sea though. Very different from its previous run. Last run had it so far west it was rain, this run has it so far east it misses to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 is that better or worse for some snow? GFS appears to be caving to its ensemble members on this run. Has a deepening low near Hatteras at 132 hrs on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Even though it misses to the east, this has to be better if you want snow. You want that low off that coast to the east, just not quite that far. The trend is your friend. is that better or worse for some snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 snow for opening day of the baseball season? I couldn't imagine anything worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12 Z GFS is nowhere even close to the progression of what the 00z ECM was last night.. 12 Z takes a piece of energy from around ARK @ 108 and turns that into the low pressure that ends up off the coast at 144.. Where as the ECM had a system coming up from the Southeast and along the coast... Too many pieces of energy for the GFS to handle...though not believing the ECM hook line and sinker... Do feel there will be a big ticket type event..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Do you have the panel before this? 12z UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 that looked like it came up west of the APPS - where are the previous panels - plus its not going to be that wound up that far west over New England with the -NAO 12z UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 My guess is that this is the far western possibility and the GFS is the far eastern possibility and the EC will again come in between the two. Just a guess though. that looked like it came up west of the APPS - where are the previous panels ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom23 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Always go with the Euro in events like this. Gfs is the crapper when there are some tricky things to pull together, whereas the Ukmet will just go bonkers with precip. Euro FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Do you have the panel before this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Thank you. This looks like the GFS but with much more phasing. This storm is going to rock someone, somewhere in the northeast. Let's see what the Euro does with this, that is the most likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 We can say this is the outlier model right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12 NOGAPS 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 So we have a western outlier UKMET and the Eastern Outlier 12Z GFS - which looks confused as usual http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06138.gif EURO is the way to go as long as it doesn't turn around and show something completely different then 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I was waiting for that panel to come out on their site. Nice for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Gefs is over the bm. Will the nogaps a costal hugger, I would not put much stock into the operational gfs. Still that does not mean I think it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 ^^^ have the frame before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The GFS mean ensemble continues to re-develop the low over Kentucky and Tennessee near Hatteras, then deepens it as it moves it up off the coast to a point east of the Benchmark. It throws back decent precip throughout our area with 850's of at least -2 the entire time for everyone. By the way, the mean also hits us pretty good on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 this is going to have to be a perfect just far enough east track to keep the wind direction N - NE - too close to the coast and its a mix or rain for I-95 and little cold air to work with in April.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The GFS mean ensemble continues to re-develop the low over Kentucky and Tennessee near Hatteras, then deepens it as it moves it up off the coast to a point east of the Benchmark. It throws back decent precip throughout our area with 850's of at least -2 the entire time for everyone. By the way, the mean also hits us pretty good on Wednesday. -2 850's are too warm for all snow in April chances are the boundary layers will have parts greater then 0 meaning a mix or even rain with an 850 of -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.