Edge Weather Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The last paragraph of today's HPC discussion. THE VAST ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS BY OPERATIONAL MODEL LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND A CONTINUATION OF THE SOLUTIONS FROM THIS MORNING REMAIN IN ORDER. ALL INDICATION AT THIS TIME POINTS TO AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF VERY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD AND MID ATLC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL INGREDIENTS FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS AND A LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 Some of the SREF members do offer hope that the first system may deliver something of at least marginal interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Joe Bastardi seems to think that something big is going to happen at the end of the week. http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 Joe Bastardi seems to think that something big is going to happen at the end of the week. http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/ Huge shock there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 By the way, I use ALL models to make a forecast. That is what a good forecaster does. What is interesting to me and to HPC and Joe Bastardi at this point is that EVERY model, GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, has at one time or other over the past several days shown an intense coastal storm during that Friday time-frame. That is the important thing. In this type of a situation you can't hug any one model, because so far there has not been one model to hug, but to throw out completely any one model and never look at it is probably not a very good idea. I hate to break it to u, but it's not going to snow unless u r in Extreme NW NJ or the poconos with the early April storm. And y would u even show the NOGAPS yesterday...the model is a complete joke. Just bc it did do well with our last event doesn't mean it will happen again. The model is way too inconsistant. The Euro had surface temps in the mid 30's in NW Nj for the April storm. It would be a cold rain. I want snow as much as the next, the set up doesn't look prime at all for snow in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 The entire long wave pattern is a bit of a mess, but if we do get a phase it would be a problem along the coast (more likely for flooding) and interior areas would likely be dealing with a plastering snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I know but it is still a good read. He has some good information there. If you look at the Canadian in combination with the UKMET, and the ensembles of the GFS and ECMWF, it gives you a pretty good idea that something may be up next Friday. Huge shock there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 I know but it is still a good read. He has some good information there. If you look at the Canadian in combination with the UKMET, and the ensembles of the GFS and ECMWF, it gives you a pretty good idea that something may be up next Friday. There is no doubt that there is a signal there. The problem with getting snow this time of year is ten-fold, you can go on and on. But this is definitely a more supportive pattern for it than you "average" upper air setup. The problem with a big phase being advertised by the models is that the low level warm air would definitely get entrained into the system given the lack of a blocking high. So getting a big snow event is likely a long shot. Obviously if you're 750 feet above sea level it's a bit easier, but if you look away from the snow potential, there's definitely some ingredients there for a bigger storm with some impact on our area. That's really all we can say at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Agreed. Not really going overboard here for snow potential, of course that would be very interesting, but the idea of big storm is still interesting. There is no doubt that there is a signal there. The problem with getting snow this time of year is ten-fold, you can go on and on. But this is definitely a more supportive pattern for it than you "average" upper air setup. The problem with a big phase being advertised by the models is that the low level warm air would definitely get entrained into the system given the lack of a blocking high. So getting a big snow event is likely a long shot. Obviously if you're 750 feet above sea level it's a bit easier, but if you look away from the snow potential, there's definitely some ingredients there for a bigger storm with some impact on our area. That's really all we can say at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 Agreed. Not really going overboard here for snow potential, of course that would be very interesting, but the idea of big storm is still interesting. Yeah, it's always interesting around this time of year with cutoff season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 im rooting for a monster cutoff storm here...not a pro, not a MET, but i dont buy the gfs solutions of the cutoff s/w missing the phase with the northern stream. The whacky runs we are seeing is probly just a data issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 By the way, I use ALL models to make a forecast. That is what a good forecaster does. What is interesting to me and to HPC and Joe Bastardi at this point is that EVERY model, GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, has at one time or other over the past several days shown an intense coastal storm during that Friday time-frame. That is the important thing. In this type of a situation you can't hug any one model, because so far there has not been one model to hug, but to throw out completely any one model and never look at it is probably not a very good idea. The same thing happened with the models leading up to the Boxing Day 2010 Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 hr 102 on the gfs low pressure just south of hse...light qpf up to edison,nj. hr 111 storm one moves ots from hse, energy for storm 2 diving in. Preciep breaking out in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Hr 132 the gfs keeps the low in the gulf for a while... hr 144 there is just not enough phasing and we get this sheared out mess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Hr 153 weak low pressure just inside the benchmark...all rain for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 yeah its pretty obvious this storm is still a work in progress on the models, the way the s/w is being handled is pretty weird as a piece of energy jumps out in from of it. This solution is pretty weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 GGEM is really interesting for the 30th storm. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif 0z GEFS has light snow for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 00Z RGEM looks really nice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 00Z RGEM looks really nice: That's the 100 hour GGEM--it's only the RGEM out to 48 or 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 21z SREF's were nice...surprised how little talk there is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 That's the 100 hour GGEM--it's only the RGEM out to 48 or 60 hours. Ahhh, sorry. I didn't know. Thank you for correcting me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Ahhh, sorry. I didn't know. Thank you for correcting me. No problem dude! Either way still a nice looking solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Actually, the RGEM goes out to 48 hours on the 00Z and 12Z runs and 54 hours on the 06Z and 18Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I don't care for the UKMET beyond 48 hours but its storm later in the period would put the 1993 storm to shame, almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 21z SREF's were nice...surprised how little talk there is /quote] I've been watching the March 30th threat very carefully; I think it's a much better shot for snow here than the 4/2 storm, which occurs with a fading cold airmass and largely cut off from the polar jet. People are getting too caught up in the big cut-off and not thinking about the potential for a Miller B Wednesday. 18z GFS, 0z GEFS, 15z SREF, and 0z GGEM all give NYC metro some snow with the 3/30 storm, which originally looked like a SW flow event but has trended south as models shift towards emphasizing the second wave more. This could be a good event as 850s start around -5C and much of the storm may take place in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 First storm is a miss, second storm 992mb just south of Lewes, heavy heavy qpf, 0c 850 line just north of trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 00z ECM has no QPF from this system....(first) Looks way OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Hr 138 wow, 144 wow 984 on top of NYC, 850s crashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 150, 978mb just east of LI, H5 closed off, its basically stalled out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Likely a dynamically driven rain to snow bomb for the immediate suburbs into the interior ..that is the craziest solution I have seen yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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