Edge Weather Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 HPN soundings on the Euro have surface temps at +1.6 to +1.8 while the majority of the precip is falling. The Euro is typically too warm with surface temps but it will still likely be above freezing there if the Euro is right. So snow is likely on Wednesday night but it will probably have a difficult time accumulating much if the model is right this far out. Let's see what happens. That's probably most likely scenario but soundings have HPN and north 32 or below while a lot of Precip is falling. Even city is pretty close 2nd half of storm. But most likely scenario, based on climo, is just what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Euro day 5 storm isnt that far from some snow. Especially for north and west of city. For city, Soundings show .55" of Qpf with 850's below most of the time and surface 34-36. Most of the Precip falling 7pm-9am. North and west is 32 or below at surface. Thicknesses are colder then last storm. 538-541 the whole time. Last storm had 545 dropping to 539. That's good because I got over 2" of snow with the last storm. Looks like if it occurs at night it will accumulate everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Im wondering what's preventing the northern stream energy from dropping in and phasing. It doesn't appear to be a lack of S/W's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12Z GFS is totally different and suppressed no more cutter - through early april....850's stay south until then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12Z GFS is totally different and suppressed no more cutter - through early april....850's stay south until then Yeah, mid week system now has the potential to be more wintry for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Yeah, mid week system now has the potential to be more wintry for our area. unfortunately on the 12Z GFS there is no mid week system for us - since the change was so radical from run to run it is suspect http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Yeah, mid week system now has the potential to be more wintry for our area. When do you think we will start seeing warmer temps, at least over 50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 When do you think we will start seeing warmer temps, at least over 50? By next weekend we'll start getting into the lower 50s, with maybe one very warm day in the April 1st-5th period. But for the most part, the pattern looks biased colder than normal through April 10th at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 unfortunately on the 12Z GFS there is no mid week system for us - since the change was so radical from run to run it is suspect http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR Yes, and I'd be very surprised to see two seperate systems pass to our south at this time of year. Tomorrow's wave will bring light snows up to the Mason-Dixon line, and the -NAO block will be in the process of weakening over the next several days. So I find it hard to believe the Wednesday s/w will be as far south as the one tomorrow; most likely the 12z GFS is too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 HPN soundings on the Euro have surface temps at +1.6 to +1.8 while the majority of the precip is falling. The Euro is typically too warm with surface temps but it will still likely be above freezing there if the Euro is right. So snow is likely on Wednesday night but it will probably have a difficult time accumulating much if the model is right this far out. Let's see what happens. I hate to break it to u, but it's not going to snow unless u r in Extreme NW NJ or the poconos with the early April storm. And y would u even show the NOGAPS yesterday...the model is a complete joke. Just bc it did do well with our last event doesn't mean it will happen again. The model is way too inconsistant. The Euro had surface temps in the mid 30's in NW Nj for the April storm. It would be a cold rain. I want snow as much as the next, the set up doesn't look prime at all for snow in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 By next weekend we'll start getting into the lower 50s, with maybe one very warm day in the April 1st-5th period. But for the most part, the pattern looks biased colder than normal through April 10th at least. Actually, I disagree with the very warm day period, imo that will be coming much later on in the month; it doesn't look like an ideal H500 pattern for warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I hate to break it to u, but it's not going to snow unless u r in Extreme NW NJ or the poconos with the early April storm. And y would u even show the NOGAPS yesterday...the model is a complete joke. Just bc it did do well with our last event doesn't mean it will happen again. The model is way too inconsistant. The Euro had surface temps in the mid 30's in NW Nj for the April storm. It would be a cold rain. I want snow as much as the next, the set up doesn't look prime at all for snow in our area. Storm we are discussing is mid week one. March 30-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I hate to break it to u, but it's not going to snow unless u r in Extreme NW NJ or the poconos with the early April storm. And y would u even show the NOGAPS yesterday...the model is a complete joke. Just bc it did do well with our last event doesn't mean it will happen again. The model is way too inconsistant. The Euro had surface temps in the mid 30's in NW Nj for the April storm. It would be a cold rain. I want snow as much as the next, the set up doesn't look prime at all for snow in our area. I generally agree regarding that storm. Our best shot at wintry weather IMO is the mid week 30-31st event,before the polar air moves offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Im wondering what's preventing the northern stream energy from dropping in and phasing. It doesn't appear to be a lack of S/W's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Actually, I disagree with the very warm day period, imo that will be coming much later on in the month; it doesn't look like an ideal H500 pattern for warmth. We may very well get to 70 one more time, then more cold behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Euro delays storm to Thursday night and it looks like a pretty big storm for parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 We may very well get to 70 one more time, then more cold behind it. Is there a SE ridge supporting that temps? I don't see it on the GFS, maybe its on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Parts of SNE are 1"-1.50" Qpf Thursday night into Friday. ORH area or NW of there looks cold enough. It scrapes our area with about .25"-.45" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Is there a SE ridge supporting that temps? I don't see it on the GFS, maybe its on the Euro? Could get toasty with a downsloping flow for a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 UKIE has a big time storm off the coast of NC that's about to come up the coast: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/UKHEMI_12z/f144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 UKIE has a big time storm off the coast of NC that's about to come up the coast: http://www.meteo.psu...MI_12z/f144.gif more like cut west of the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 more like cut west of the coast Idk. Close. Still positive to neutral. But it's wrong anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12z GGEM The first storm midweek goes off the Mid-Atlantic coast: This is the early April storm big storm, runs inland: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Euro ensemble mean has the look of a UKMET/CMC type of track right up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I like the way you put this, but let me put it this way. I forecast 6-10 inches in my area for the last storm several days in advance while the national weather service forecast 1-2 inches and mainly rain. In my back yard I got 9 inches and my area got from 5-11 inches. So, let me break it to you, if you want a forecast for your area, just ask and I will give you one that is pretty darn good. I hate to break it to u, but it's not going to snow unless u r in Extreme NW NJ or the poconos with the early April storm. And y would u even show the NOGAPS yesterday...the model is a complete joke. Just bc it did do well with our last event doesn't mean it will happen again. The model is way too inconsistant. The Euro had surface temps in the mid 30's in NW Nj for the April storm. It would be a cold rain. I want snow as much as the next, the set up doesn't look prime at all for snow in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I like the way you put this, but let me put it this way. I forecast 6-10 inches in my area for the last storm several days in advance while the national weather service forecast 1-2 inches and mainly rain. In my back yard I got 9 inches and my area got from 5-11 inches. So, let me break it to you, if you want a forecast for your area, just ask and I will give you one that is pretty darn good. Yeah you stole all the banding that was supposed to hit me as I enjoyed my .25" QPF with a temperature of 29F in late March...Thanks! The 12z ECM ENS show a 980s coastal off NJ with -4C 850s, how can he honestly say that's not snow for NE NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Yes, I agree. What I did not like was the arrogant nature of the post but anyway, the latest run of the GFS actually supports snow even into NYC during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. Should be some accumulation in Northern NJ according to latest run of the GFS and soundings. Yeah you stole all the banding that was supposed to hit me as I enjoyed my .25" QPF with a temperature of 29F in late March...Thanks! The 12z ECM ENS show a 980s coastal off NJ with -4C 850s, how can he honestly say that's not snow for NE NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 18z GFS shows snow for NYC metro at 102: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 How about the UKMET and Canadain? No one posted the 850's and surface temps for the Canadian either, which seem to support snow. The UKMET also seems to be a massive snow storm for some. Of course maybe it is just me seeing this, just like my forecast of 6-10 inches for the last storm that everyone chastised me for. Yeah you stole all the banding that was supposed to hit me as I enjoyed my .25" QPF with a temperature of 29F in late March...Thanks! The 12z ECM ENS show a 980s coastal off NJ with -4C 850s, how can he honestly say that's not snow for NE NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 DGEX barely misses the phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.