RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The models have been having trouble handeling the details of the northern stream S/W's all season. Wouldn't suprise me if at a later point the models started to show more phasing over the SE. If it phases too quickly though, it might get tuggued well west of us. It's too bad that our PV is moving out already by day 5 or 6. yea, with the blocking leaving we dont want to phase too much. lol. no enough and its OTS. thread the needle, bla bla bla....i know but if theres a chance im tracking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I've never seen so many hardcore snow lovers turn into snow haters after a few days in the 60's and 70's that we knew weren't going to last. yea. just too bad the blocking didnt come back earlier this month.....all the flooding rains we had, oh boyeee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 It will be interesting to see what the Euro has to offer today. The 0z had a weaker first system than the 12z GFS today. How the models handle that energy will make a difference in how the second system plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Well hasn't the seasonal trends for the models been underamplifying until it gets closer to the event? Correct me if I'm wrong but the boxing day storm the models didn't get it right until 24 hours till the event, granted this set up is very different but id def take that into account as well as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 yea. just too bad the blocking didnt come back earlier this month.....all the flooding rains we had, oh boyeee... When you have that large and that persistant of a snow pack it doesn't take much to induce flooding. Were lucky that the rain didn't fall while the snow pack was still in tact and that there was enough of a seperation between the first two events that most of the rivers had enough time to drop below flood stage in between. I remember walking on the grass as the rain was coming down during the second event as we were beginning to evacuate people, the ground was so saturated I nearly sank into someones front yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Well hasn't the seasonal trends for the models been underamplifying until it gets closer to the event? Correct me if I'm wrong but the boxing day storm the models didn't get it right until 24 hours till the event, granted this set up is very different but id def take that into account as well as of now If I remember correctly, the models had a very difficult time with the ejecting S/W out of the SW and the strength of the northern stream energy dropping in. Once it became clear that it was going to phase over the Gulf we were in business. When you don't have great blocking though, you need alot more to go right for you in order to get snow, especially after March 1st. Our problem is that even if we do get a monster Noreaster out of this, were talking about needing the perfect combo of everything falling into place to receive snow, and even at that with no block its going to be a fast mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I've never seen so many hardcore snow lovers turn into snow haters after a few days in the 60's and 70's that we knew weren't going to last. I can proudly say I am not one of those people and never have been and never will be. If the pattern is a set up that supports snow, I don't care if it is mid-July, I am all for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I would think late Mar/April Archambault events would be more favorable for inland areas climatologically, because the NAO trending toward neutral tends to weaken confluence and associated sfc highs. Also, when considering late Mar/April Archambault events where there is an amplifying ridge in the western US, one has to remember that with wavelengths shortening, the mean trough ends up further west than it would be earlier in the winter. A late March/April setup that has E. Canada/Greenland blocking remaining, with NAO values steady or decreasing (e.g. Mar 21-22, 1967; Mar 19-21, 1958; Apr 6, 1982) would be more favorable for significant snowfall in coastal areas. And yet the first ten days of April are well known for wintry events in these parts-- as a matter of fact, the first ten days of April are more likely to see snow than the last ten days of November. Because the SST are still very cold and if we get the right track and enough cold air it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 It looks better for inland areas at this point due both to climatology and the 500mb low closing off too early/inland for the I-95 corridor. It could be a huge storm though, Archembault type event with the NAO block blowing up. Interestingly, I'm going to be driving to Chicago for a fellowship interview next Thursday or Friday so I may get to see some fun times on the road. Also interesting is that both the GFS/ECM build a big -EPO block in the longer range with hints of the NAO blocking returning around April 5th, the time frame HM mentioned for a massive Nor'easter to close out the winter season. There's definitely still multiple threats to be tracked for snow, plenty of cold shots to come....what a way to close out the best winter I have ever experienced, Winter 10-11. Thanks mother nature for the great show, may it continue... EDIT: Looks like the low is around 985mb on the Euro. Probably a monster hit for MI/IN and perhaps Chicago. 850s under the ULL are near -6C so there is definitely some snow involved. Looks like great dynamics with a closed H5 low. Just need to get it to the coast. Sounds good for the last legit period we have for big snows around here.... which is April 5-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Some of the ensemble members have really nice coastal storms around 180-192. I'm not sure what temps look like but there is quite the spread at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 New CMC is worlds apart from the GFS and EC, closes off the energy over the SW and keeps it there through the end of its run at 180hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 NOAGPS is way OTS. Looks like a less amplified version of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Euro much less amplified, coastal misses ots..Im inclined to say the signal is good - but cold air is hard to come by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Euro much less amplified, coastal misses ots..Im inclined to say the signal is good - but cold air is hard to come by For which storm? the one on the 30th or 2nd/3rd? Or is it one big storm now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 For which storm? the one on the 30th or 2nd/3rd? Or is it one big storm now? i didnt know there was a 30th storm lol...The one im talking about is the early april 1-2 big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 i didnt know there was a 30th storm lol...The one im talking about it the early april 1-2 big storm Yeah originally there was the possibility that something was firing up around the 30th as well, in addition to the weekend storm. (which still may be the case) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 there is another weaker system on the 30th.. much of the QPF on that one slides just south of us.. temps are a little warm anyways... would probably be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 there is another weaker system on the 30th.. much of the QPF on that one slides just south of us.. temps are a little warm anyways... would probably be rain. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Model spread is enormous and growing larger by the run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 there is another weaker system on the 30th.. much of the QPF on that one slides just south of us.. temps are a little warm anyways... would probably be rain. Soundings actually show about .32" of Qpf for NYC. But surface is warm, as u said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The EC just looks like it had a bad run....we need one consolidated low instead of several broken pieces of energy mucking up the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The latest JMA is a decent hit with this storm, though a little warm, especially in the city and along the coast. The latest DGEX is a near miss and look at how close the NOGAPS is, and considering its progressive bias, this is exactly where you would want the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 18z GFS just keeps this thing hanging around the Gulf forever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Were dead in the water without northern stream interaction which the GFS seems to have backed away from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 GFS shows some snow for NYC metro with the SW flow event on 3/30: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 0z GFS much closer to a phase with the big April 1st storm...it's a closed 546dm low over Alabama, looks very potent, and does brush the area this time. The only problem is going to be boundary layer warming from the low pressure tracking through Eastern Canada; we'd need to see some great dynamics from this Nor'easter if we are to expect snow this late in the season. Here's 180, close call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Theres still snow in shaded areas, and if we can get the month storm more phased and closer to the coast, it would be stronger and I wouldn't worry about boundry layer temps. I wouldn't count on anything but its certainly a wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Euro day 5 storm isnt that far from some snow. Especially for north and west of city. For city, Soundings show .55" of Qpf with 850's below most of the time and surface 34-36. Most of the Precip falling 7pm-9am. North and west is 32 or below at surface. Thicknesses are colder then last storm. 538-541 the whole time. Last storm had 545 dropping to 539. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 To me, the Euro soundings show the precip starting as rain in Northwest NJ, but changing to snow as the sun starts to set and precipitation intensity picks up on Wednesday evening, continuing into Thursday morning when it may change back to rain before ending as the sun comes up. Looks like a typical NW NJ elevation and evening event. Could be 3-6 inches the way I see it for the typical NW NJ locations. Could be 1-2 inches in eastern sections of Northern New Jersey without elevation. That is the way I see it right now. Surface temps will just be too warm in eastern sections closer to the city even though snow is possible there, it may be too warm to accumulate much. Euro day 5 storm isnt that far from some snow. Especially for north and west of city. For city, Soundings show .55" of Qpf with 850's below most of the time and surface 34-36. Most of the Precip falling 7pm-9am. North and west is 32 or below at surface. Thicknesses are colder then last storm. 538-541 the whole time. Last storm had 545 dropping to 539. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 To me, the Euro soundings show the precip starting as rain in Northwest NJ, but changing to snow as the sun starts to set and precipitation intensity picks up on Wednesday evening, continuing in Thursday morning when it may change back to rain before ending as the sun comes up. Looks like a typical NW NJ elevation and evening event. Could be 3-6 inches the way I see it for the typical NW NJ locations. Could be 1-2 inches in eastern sections of Northern New Jersey without elevation. That is the way I see it right now. Surface temps will just be too warm in eastern sections closer to the city even though snow is possible there, it may be too warm to accumulate much. That's probably most likely scenario but soundings have HPN and north 32 or below while a lot of Precip is falling. Even city is pretty close 2nd half of storm. But most likely scenario, based on climo, is just what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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