earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 More detailed post forthcoming, but it's been discussed at length already. The 06z DGEX is going nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Me likey. Still some details to work out, but it has some classic signs. West based -NAO ridge rolling in towards Hudson Bay. Perhaps some west coast ridging, and somewhat of a 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandHurricanes Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The 27th anniversary of what I call the unforgotten/underrated Nor'easter!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 On 3/21/2011 at 11:41 AM, CoastalWx said: Me likey. Still some details to work out, but it has some classic signs. West based -NAO ridge rolling in towards Hudson Bay. Perhaps some west coast riding, and somewhat of a 50/50 low. The "March" issue is going to create some problems for the usual suspects to the south and along the coast. But the positioning of the west based NAO and Central Canadian ridge is almost classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 March 29th is one of those dates with multiple snowfalls...Maybe we add to the total this year?...La Nina years have a history of late March cold or snow... 1965 was one of those years... http://nycsubway.org/perl/show?24538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 late March 1984... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Should be noted that the DGEX is pretty much a shot in the dark. Loop the images and watch how the H5 shortwave moves east and a PV Lobe over SE Canada retrogrades and phases into the mean trough. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Very significant event possilbe, which will possibly give the record snowfall of 1995-1996 a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 The pattern surrounding this storm is absolutely terrific. It's not to the incredible extent of the December block, which had +48dm height anomalies over the exact same spot, but it's strong enough to raise my eyebrow. It's definitely safe to say, at this point, that most modeling agrees the blocking will return just in time to give us one last big swing at winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Euro is south of the area for the sunday event...but its a very nice set-up and its plenty cold...gives DC south a moderate snowstorm....after some intial boundry level problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 On 3/21/2011 at 2:49 PM, Allsnow said: Euro is south of the area for the sunday event...but its a very nice set-up and its plenty cold...gives DC south a moderate snowstorm....after some intial boundry level problems. That's where we want it right now Tim, given the backdrop of a Nina regime and the tendency for a gradual north trend as we approach the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 On 3/21/2011 at 2:09 PM, Chris L said: Very significant event possilbe, which will possibly give the record snowfall of 1995-1996 a run. Considering what has been horrendous weather for snow/cold lovers for the last month and a half to two months that this still even has a chance of happening is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 On 3/21/2011 at 4:34 PM, Isotherm said: That's where we want it right now Tim, given the backdrop of a Nina regime and the tendency for a gradual north trend as we approach the event. Yeah the set-up on the 12z gfs is pretty sweet...also are temps are plenty cold 850's and surface well below where they need to be......as noted by you and a few others much better set-up then wed.....hope for a late season snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 On 3/21/2011 at 4:36 PM, Allsnow said: Yeah the set-up on the 12z gfs is pretty sweet...also are temps are plenty cold 850's and surface well below where they need to be......as noted by you and a few others much better set-up then wed.....hope for a late season snow bomb. yes sir, plenty of cold air in place. The s/w has flattened out since 00z but it will come back.. Its basically the perfect pattern we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 On 3/21/2011 at 4:36 PM, Allsnow said: Yeah the set-up on the 12z gfs is pretty sweet...also are temps are plenty cold 850's and surface well below where they need to be......as noted by you and a few others much better set-up then wed.....hope for a late season snow bomb. Yeah Tim, this is the most excited I've been since January on the pattern. Think it's going to be hard to get out of this pattern without a snow event in our area. If not Sun-Mon, then there's another system right behind it for April 1-3 as the NAO block retrogrades into the PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 On 3/21/2011 at 4:35 PM, dbc said: Considering what has been horrendous weather for snow/cold lovers for the last month and a half to two months that this still even has a chance of happening is incredible. It sure is, dbc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 They are already talking about the bomb at hr 288 on the new GFS on the Philly forum. Seems like were in a pattern where it's just a matter of when like December was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I mean, REALLY? Who hacked the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 On 3/21/2011 at 5:56 PM, TheTrials said: I mean, REALLY? Who hacked the GEFS i did, with alittle help from metfan, chrisL, zuckers elevation and earthlight's snowheaven..We made it happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 for the nogaps guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I think this looks somewhat interesting for our area. We just have the hope the 50/50 low isn't too strong or too far south. And their isn't another kicker s/w coming behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 i wonder how many times N-NJ NYC has had a snowstorm miss to the south after march 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 On 3/21/2011 at 4:46 PM, Isotherm said: Yeah Tim, this is the most excited I've been since January on the pattern. Think it's going to be hard to get out of this pattern without a snow event in our area. If not Sun-Mon, then there's another system right behind it for April 1-3 as the NAO block retrogrades into the PNA ridge. That's what happened with the boxing day storm. I like the April threat even better,honestly. Even the MJO looks more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 This thread is complete nonsense - thereis no big snow storm coming have to agree with Upton http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 On 3/21/2011 at 7:53 PM, NEG NAO said: This thread is complete nonsense - thereis no big snow storm coming have to agree with Upton http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KOKX.html Upton is using this outlandish thing called CLIMO in their forecast it seems. Those tricky bastards!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 On 3/21/2011 at 7:53 PM, NEG NAO said: This thread is complete nonsense - thereis no big snow storm coming have to agree with Upton http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KOKX.html Makes me wonder what model they are hugging at this point? Almost every model has snow for our area or keeps the event supressed to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 On 3/21/2011 at 7:56 PM, pazzo83 said: Upton is using this outlandish thing called CLIMO in their forecast it seems. Those tricky bastards!! Couldn't disagree more, they are probably figuring the storm will stay too far to our south which is hard to argue against at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 If the this weeks snow and this storm were to verify, that would result in an incredible last stand. With such a pattern in place, being in late march might not even be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z GFS close to pulling something off, the setup aloft looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z GFS Hr 132, sub 1000 low near Tennessee. Looks big already, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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