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March 26-28 Severe threat


JFMass

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Hi

GFS is the loner, but keeps showing some severe potential across the plains for Friday/Sathurday maybe Sunday.

While there is a clear lack of upper lift for Friday, it keeps eroding the CAP near a convergent dryline bulge in NC OK... CAPE around 1500 isn't bad if you consider the model seems to downplay it a little bit. With strong midlevel winds and some not bad moisture advertised, I can see a good slight risk day for Friday.

Sathurday looks to be better supported with ejecting though late in the day. GFS has a 992mb low in KS. Strong cap eroding by 0Z, again good shear and some good CAPE. However, I would like to see 850mb moist axis closer to the dryline.

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