Hoosier Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z GFS looks a little goofy, but it seems to want to develop "waves" of precip/snow. Quite the battle between the confluence to the north/northeast and the slp to the south/southwest. GFS has some rather beefy qpf but temps look like they get borderline with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS has some rather beefy qpf but temps look like they get borderline with time. Looks that way. You can kinda see how the temps get cooler during times of precip. Really we just need a good 6 hour burst, preferably overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looks that way. You can kinda see how the temps get cooler during times of precip. Really we just need a good 6 hour burst, preferably overnight. Still too early to be throwing out accumulations but the warm ground will probably have to be considered to some degree. We've spent like 2 hours below freezing in the past week with several days in the 60's/70's. Granted it will be getting colder before this event. Ideal scenario would be to bring it in at night as you said but if not, then let it rip good from the beginning to minimize the waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Still too early to be throwing out accumulations but the warm ground will probably have to be considered to some degree. We've spent like 2 hours below freezing in the past week with several days in the 60's/70's. Granted it will be getting colder before this event. Ideal scenario would be to bring it in at night as you said but if not, then let it rip good from the beginning to minimize the waste. Rip or nighttime...or a combo of both would work nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 2"-4" has been thrown about around here as the potential for this event. Really, no more snow..... Definitely bears watching however. Not thrilled with a late March snow, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z gem is wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z gem is wild That would be a nice hit from the QC down towards LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'll take the GGEM as it brings yet another storm around 180hr after this one hitting areas north of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Vortex over the W Atlantic is going to be in the process of retrograding while this piece of energy is ejecting. Might try a partial phase as with today's storm, but everything is occurring much further S/E. In my mind, almost no chance it comes too much further north than currently depicted. Looks like a good OV hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Vortex over the W Atlantic is going to be in the process of retrograding while this piece of energy is ejecting. Might try a partial phase as with today's storm, but everything is occurring much further S/E. In my mind, almost no chance it comes too much further north than currently depicted. Looks like a good OV hit. I hope it comes a bit north. How ironic would it be for this first storm to drop all its snow north of Detroit and the 2nd one to drop it all south of Detroit, in a winter when almost every snowfall seemed to take aim AT Detroit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I hope it comes a bit north. How ironic would it be for this first storm to drop all its snow north of Detroit and the 2nd one to drop it all south of Detroit, in a winter when almost every snowfall seemed to take aim AT Detroit? I think you've got a chance to catch some of the northern fringes, but I wouldn't bet on much more. But weirder things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think you've got a chance to catch some of the northern fringes, but I wouldn't bet on much more. But weirder things have happened. Like Partly Sunny to 5" of snow for a forecast in under 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Like Partly Sunny to 5" of snow for a forecast in under 12 hours Or 1-3" to 10" of snow for a forecast in under 12 hours (Feb 5 and Feb 20)....it has been that kind of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 DVN less than impressed. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION DUE TO WHERE THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY TRACKS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BETTER FORCING IS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SNOW LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 As far as quick turnarounds from warmth to snow, we had a high of 78 here on 3/9/2000 with accumulating snow 3 days later. This one won't be quite as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 As far as quick turnarounds from warmth to snow, we had a high of 78 here on 3/9/2000 with accumulating snow 3 days later. This one won't be quite as impressive. Euro doesn't look as generous with QPF as the GFS, NAM, or GGEM. It certainly likes the second storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18z GFS. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 A big hit for the eastern IA/northern IL crew...even a small area of .50"+ liquid at 108hr over Alek's backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 A big hit for the eastern IA/northern IL crew...even a small area of .50"+ liquid at 108hr over Alek's backyard. Heck it even give the southern part of DTX's area some love. Nothing beats a spread the wealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 SREF starting to pick up on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Big differences between the 12z and 00z NAM. The Friday wave of snow on the 12z is completely gone on the new 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Big differences between the 12z and 00z NAM. The Friday wave of snow on the 12z is completely gone on the new 00z. and big differences between the 18z GFS and 0z NAM. The GFS has the main sfc low over ICT where the 0z NAM has a weaker sfc low in southwest OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 and big differences between the 18z GFS and 0z NAM. The GFS has the main sfc low over ICT where the 0z NAM has a weaker sfc low in southwest OK. You kind of get the feeling this storm will be hard to pinpoint right up to the last minute. Who knows what the new GFS is gonna show lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 wow close to wet snow in STL on the 1st wave. weird to see such a cold late season pattern. It has been forever since we had cold enough low level temps for snow March 24th to April 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 You kind of get the feeling this storm will be hard to pinpoint right up to the last minute. Who knows what the new GFS is gonna show lol. If were gonna get warmth and storms, I want a siggy late season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 If were gonna get warmth and storms, I want a siggy late season snow. I agree. I feel we haven't been given one last "goodbye" snow yet. Our last snow of any consequence was way back in early Feb during the blizzard. Since then it's been a Michigan snowfest lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 GFS looks the same through 48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 gfs 2m temps are cold as bleep for this time of year here next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The new GEM looks very unimpressive with the Friday-Saturday snow event compared to previous runs. The overall trend with the new 00z guidance is a step in the wrong direction for snow enthusiasts. Pretty much a non-event shown compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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