Thundersnow12 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 models have been flipping back and forth with the GFS most consistent in having the storm where the 12z GEM/Euro were weaker/south/suppressed. going from southern MO to NC. 0z GFS looks quite interesting with nice looking baroclinic zone and strong sfc low. lets see if I have the magic for one more (even though I would most likely be in the warm sector chasing this one lol) +SN on the cold side with tornadoes on the warm side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I've been watching this one for the past couple days. With the surface high to the north and flat looking isobars, the 00z GFS would suggest icing potential here. Sort of hard to get excited about ice in late March 6 days out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 I've been watching this one for the past couple days. With the surface high to the north and flat looking isobars, the 00z GFS would suggest icing potential here. Sort of hard to get excited about ice in late March 6 days out though. Why would you get excited about ice? lol give me SN, PL, or RA before that, if its gong to be a good amount that is. also looks like a dry ENE flow off the lake on this run and you can see that showing up in the QPF plots at 150/156hr. still days away though to get into specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Why would you get excited about ice? lol give me SN, PL, or RA before that, if its gong to be a good amount that is. also looks like a dry ENE flow off the lake on this run and you can see that showing up in the QPF plots at 150/156hr. still days away though to get into specifics. I'd rather have ice than cold rain as long as it doesn't get too crazy. And I'll pass on sleet after the Groundhog storm. Long way out but had to post this warm layer from hell on the LAF sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'd rather have ice than cold rain as long as it doesn't get too crazy. And I'll pass on sleet after the Groundhog storm. Long way out but had to post this warm layer from hell on the LAF sounding. good lord...8 degrees or so at 800mb, and your not just hovering at 31 or so at the sfc either.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 good lord...8 degrees or so at 800mb, and your not just hovering at 31 or so at the sfc either.. Yeah, impressive. If this general setup holds then there should be a band of ice somewhere...question is where. 00z GGEM takes the surface low into southern IL and then has a monster trough ejecting onto the Plains at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah, impressive. If this general setup holds then there should be a band of ice somewhere...question is where. 00z GGEM takes the surface low into southern IL and then has a monster trough ejecting onto the Plains at day 10. Obviously day 10 but that one has major severe weather outbreak written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 12z GFS a good hit from DSM to ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 DVN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING THE THOUGHTS FROM LATE THU NIGHT...THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE VARYING ON HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CAN PROPAGATE AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE DVN CWA WITH RAIN OR SNOW/OR BOTH ON FRI AND INTO FRI EVENING. THE NEW 00Z RUN ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PROPAGATION PATH ACRS THE AR/MO BORDER AND WOULD ONLY MEAN LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON ACRS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA AND NOT MUCH OF AN IMPACT. THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS OVER CENTRAL MO AND UPPER WAVE PLACEMENT EVEN FURTHER NORTH...WHICH COULD MEAN 2-4 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SFC/S. FOR NOW WITH SUCH DISCREPANCIES...WILL KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS FILLED WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH CONTINUING MODEL DISCREPANCIES. ENSEMBLES AND MEAN FLOW PATTERNS SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING COLD CORE RIDGING DUMPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GRT LKS SAT AND SUNDAY FOR A MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME. IT/S THEN A MATTER HOW FAR NORTH THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM CAN INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS FOR ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIP EVENTS THAT MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA WITH RAIN OR SNOW. THE 00Z RUN HAS A MAJOR CYCLONE THAT PLOWS IT/S WAY ACRS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT LOCALLY SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ADVISORY OR EVEN WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS IN THE NORTH. THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE NEW EURO WHICH IS MAINLY DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW MAY PAINT PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW...AND ADVERTISE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. ..12.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 This is going to be one crazy week, possible svr wx to maybe a decent snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 This one could have some surprises in it. Today were in the mid 70's with rumbles of thunder and were looking at a 30's and rain possibility to snow with this particular storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Dam, now I have to pay attention to the weather again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 00Z gfs gives me 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS would suggest 2 snow threats here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 By the looks of this storm system, the one common theme after the Groundhog Day Storm is that the Chicago to Milwaukee corridor and points west and east have been stuck in no man's land with regard to storms. Maybe it is payback for the grandeur of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The GEM is moving this along pretty quickly. Also pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS would suggest 2 snow threats here. Forget 50", the race to 60" is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Forget 50", the race to 60" is on. I wanna hit 70" here.....lol even after a snowy winter, we all cant stop when something is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I wanna hit 70" here.....lol even after a snowy winter, we all cant stop when something is on the table. No doubt. I'll take snow anytime...though I suppose I'm in the minority. Still, we need just one lousy inch here to get to 50" for the season. Hoosier's grade of this winter depends on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 No doubt. I'll take snow anytime...though I suppose I'm in the minority. Still, we need just one lousy inch here to get to 50" for the season. Hoosier's grade of this winter depends on it... Oh, Im the same way here :-). Need 1.9" to hit 70" imby, at DTW need 2.5" to hit it, although just 1.6" would move us to 5th place officially. Regardless my grade is an A+ due to all things considered, but if we were in a warm pattern id say "it was a great winter, bring on spring" but you give me a cold pattern like this and my snow fiend returns full throttle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Might as well, as foolish as it may be, but the 12z NAM bringing about 2" of snow here at 84 hours...with more to go after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 No doubt. I'll take snow anytime...though I suppose I'm in the minority. Still, we need just one lousy inch here to get to 50" for the season. Hoosier's grade of this winter depends on it... Shhhh! Can we please just move on from the snow???!?!? Ok, ok, I will be fine with an inch or two.. But NO MORE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Shhhh! Can we please just move on from the snow???!?!? Ok, ok, I will be fine with an inch or two.. But NO MORE! Embrace it. Love it. Really though, if it's going to snow again at least let it be something meaningful. Not like it'll stick around long anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Forget 50", the race to 60" is on. I wanna hit 70" here.....lol even after a snowy winter, we all cant stop when something is on the table. 60 or 70 degrees sounds good to me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 60 or 70 degrees sounds good to me too. That's the beauty of spring. One week torch, the next snow, the next severe, etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 No doubt. I'll take snow anytime...though I suppose I'm in the minority. Still, we need just one lousy inch here to get to 50" for the season. Hoosier's grade of this winter depends on it... You know our late March snow climo...not very good but we don't need much. NAM is pretty cold at 84 hours (-5C at 850 mb) which I like to see at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 You know our late March snow climo...not very good but we don't need much. NAM is pretty cold at 84 hours (-5C at 850 mb) which I like to see at this time of year. Yep it isn't good, but it we've had a few decent ones in the past. Agreed on the cold look on the NAM...and other models for that matter. Other details TBD obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 IF STL is getting any late season snow, then we will need an arctic airmass in place to make it happen...or one right nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z GFS looks a little goofy, but it seems to want to develop "waves" of precip/snow. Quite the battle between the confluence to the north/northeast and the slp to the south/southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.