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This weekend thing is there on the GFS- just it gets sheared out as it heads east.... some members actually end up taking it through the lakes. We shall see. I don't have a good sense of the "new" GFS tendencies with clipper type systems.

No doubt in my mind that the early next week storm is going to be a significant one for the east with a chance of snow/ice here. Obviously the Atlantic blocking dictates whether this will be a good'n or a changeover event if the track is to the west. There should be a decent amount of in-situ CAD to start if it tracks through the OV.

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still plenty of time to screw us

.. gotta fall back into normal snow mode around here ...

well, maybe we're a snow town now

Would be something if this storm follows the same pattern as last winter....my guess is there may be some sort of early season hangover that will probably end at some point. Question is did it end with the Feb storms or is there one or two more in there somewhere? I know what I am hoping for.

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still plenty of time to screw us

.. gotta fall back into normal snow mode around here ...

well, maybe we're a snow town now

I've just sent something in to Jason about going into a period with above normal chances of snow but that's not saying much. The pattern is getting to be a pretty good one. I still don't think I buy the euro 144 hr storm. I'm not a fan of systems coming from Ohio. but if the low holds together and goes to our south, I guess there is a chance.

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Would be something if this storm follows the same pattern as last winter....my guess is there may be some sort of early season hangover that will probably end at some point. Question is did it end with the Feb storms or is there one or two more in there somewhere? I know what I am hoping for.

I thought I read somewhere that episodes of severe high-latitude blocking (-AO) ran on a two-year cycle. (Was it from Don S?) The last cycle occurred in the 1977-1979 timeframe. If the statement is true, since this started in June 2009, we aren't quite out of the cycle yet.

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  • 2 years later...

Very warm start to the month of December and so far in the long range the above temps win out. Winter has not even started yet but in the meteorology world it has. I feel the -PDO will play a major part in another sluggish winter. Anything is better then last season right?

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