Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 SPRING WEATHER ADVISORY into Bucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 need to change the thread title to OBS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 high was 52.8° today. even if we get any frozen pcpn it won't stick down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 high was 52.8° today. even if we get any frozen pcpn it won't stick down here Another stark contrast, we didn't even hit 40 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 looks like 46 in qtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18Z NAM shifted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I told a friend of mine in northern Passaic County 2-4", 6" if everything comes together just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Tony's thoughts: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH ADVISORIES FOR THE NEXT TWO TIERS SOUTHWARD. LIKE MOST EARLY SPRING STORMS THIS WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT AND THUS WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF THE RANGES IN ALL OF THE ADVISED/WARNED COUNTIES WITH HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE GREATER. THE GFS INITIALIZATION OVERALL WAS BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMM OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND VERIFIED QUITE WELL WITH ITS 6 HR PROGS. THE 850MB ERROR AT PBZ IS ALL ABOUT HEIGHT (INVERSION AT 825MB) AND NOT ABOUT GEOGRAPHY. STILL THE MODEL AND DIURNAL SPLIT CONTINUES WITH THE GFS THE WARMEST, THE NAM THE SNOWIEST AND MOST OTHER MODELS BETWEEN. ALSO THE 12Z RUNS HAVE RAN WARMER WHILE THE 00Z RUNS HAVE RUN COOLER. THE GFS IN SPITE OF ITS INITIALIZATION REMAINS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THIS EVENT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE ALL CLUSTERED MUCH CLOSER TO THE WRF-NMM. FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE WE ARE SIDING WITH THE CONSENSUS AVERAGE WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE WRF-NMM THAN THE GFS. FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA MOST OF THE PTYPE PROBLEMS ARE ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA THIS HAD THE LOOKS OF THE JAN 26-27 EVENT OF SNOW, A LULL AND THEN MORE SNOW, BUT WITH A WARMER GROUND AND A MID SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE TO FACTOR IN. WHETHER CONSENSUS BREEDS ACCURACY OR NOT WOULD HAVE LIKED IF THE GFS AND WRF-NMM THERMALLY WERE CLOSER, BUT ITS DECISION MAKING TIME. THE WRF-NMM HAS EDGED WARMER, BUT ITS A DIURNAL CYCLE AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE BEEN COOLER. THE THERMAL FIELDS 1000-500MB THICKNESSES LESS THAN 5460M AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES OF LESS THAN 1300M HAVE BEEN VERIFYING AS THE SNOW NOT SNOW LINE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. WE USED A COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE WRF-NMM THERMAL FIELDS TO ARRIVE AT PCPN TYPE. IN GENERAL OUTSIDE OF FAR NORTH PCPN SHOULD START AS RAIN TONIGHT BEFORE WE EVAP COOL TO SNOW, OR EVAP COOL TO SNOW DURING HEAVIER PCPN PERIODS. EVEN THE GFS IS SHOWING A FGEN AXIS THAT PRODUCES HIGHER QPF BY MORNING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE FCST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP QVEC CONVERGENCE LOOKS STRONGER THAN IT WAS ON MONDAY MORNING. SO A BURST WHERE PCPN GOES FROM RAIN TO SNOW MAY GO PRETTY SOUTH INTO OUR CWA (MAYBE FARTHER THAN WE HAVE), ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS FROM PHL SOUTHWARD WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS. BECAUSE OF GREATER PROXIMITY TO THE FGEN BAND WE HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR BERKS, (REALLY UPPER) BUCKS, HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY WILL HAVE A WIDER GAP OF NON SNOW PCPN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THAN PLACES FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WE USED THE NAM SFC TEMPS AND THUS OUR MINS ARE GOING TO BE LOWER THAN STAT GUIDANCE.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL HAVE THE EARLY SPRING DILEMMA OF SNOW FALLING AND HOW MUCH WILL BE STICKING. AFTER THE FGEN BURST GOES THRU IN THE MORNING, THERE IS A FORECAST GENERAL LULL BEFORE THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVES AND THE SFC LOW STARTS TO INTENSIFY. THIS IN A TWO-FOLD SENSE SHOULD HOLD ACCUMULATIONS DOWN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE THERE AND THE INDIRECT SUN WILL NOT ALLOW IT. ALSO SOME SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE LOSS OF ICE BEARING CLOUDS. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOST BULLISH ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET AS IT RAISES TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING JUST BELOW 700MB THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. WE WERE A LITTLE BIT CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MENTION OF SLEET AS PER THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD PROLONGED SLEET WITH THE LAST EVENT. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING INSTABILITY ALOFT AND WHILE WE USED THE GFS INSTABILITY FIELDS AS A GUIDE, WE LOWERED THEIR LOCATION BY ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR PROBABLY A TOO NORTHWARD PLACEMENT BY THE MODEL. YESTERDAY I BUSTED BIG TIME WITH MAX TEMPS AT ABE, MY CHANCES OF BUSTING BIG TIME WITH MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL SWITCH TO DELMARVA AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PROCESS REVERSES ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WRF-NMM AGAIN THE MOST BULLISH ABOUT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGHOUT OUR CWA. FOR NOW NO OTHER MODEL IS EITHER THAN HIGH IN QPF OR THAT COLD FOR THAT MUCH SNOW AND WE LEANED CLOSER TO AN ECMWF/GFS QPF COMPROMISE, BUT INCORPORATING THE NAM`S THERMAL FIELDS. CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE PTYPE EVOLUTION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. EVENT QPF SHOULD AVERAGE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND AS SUCH SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AS LONG AS WE DO NOT HAVE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. WE REALLY DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT DIFFERED MUCH. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE TROF HAS TO CLEAR THE CWA ON THURSDAY. AFTER THAT OTHER THAN SPRING GOING AWOL, IT LOOKS DRY INTO FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18Z NAM shifted north. Huh? Not the NAM I am looking at... 12 Z 18 Z 12 Z 18 Z Looks more or less like it has held serve with the position of the low and the tracking ..perhaps slowed down a bit...but not north IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Huh? Not the NAM I am looking at... 12 Z 18 Z 12 Z 18 Z Looks more or less like it has held serve with the position of the low and the tracking ..perhaps slowed down a bit...but not north IMHO The 0Z-6Z QPF field is significantly further north and closer to the GFS/EC. NAM is starting to wake up about that false back-end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The 0Z-6Z QPF field is significantly further north and closer to the GFS/EC. NAM is starting to wake up about that false back-end thump. Well..it does not look to me like HPC is going with the GFS /EC nor the NAM as far as QPF is concerned.... but rather a blend of guidance as that is usually what it comes down to. For example ECM thru 48 hrs has .25-.50 into CT 18 Z NAM only has .10-,25 into NE CT more to the SW... 18 Z NAM is also wetter then the ECM for here into NYC ... GFS(12 Z) was much drier then the NAM (18Z) Since it always comes down to a blend the HPC makes the most sense.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The 0Z-6Z QPF field is significantly further north and closer to the GFS/EC. NAM is starting to wake up about that false back-end thump. Hopefully...provided it's not an 18z "burp" that comes back at 0z or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well..it does not look to me like HPC is going with the GFS /EC nor the NAM as far as QPF is concerned.... but rather a blend of guidance as that is usually what it comes down to. For example ECM thru 48 hrs has .25-.50 into CT 18 Z NAM only has .10-,25 into NE CT more to the SW... 18 Z NAM is also wetter then the ECM for here into NYC ... GFS(12 Z) was much drier then the NAM (18Z) Since it always comes down to a blend the HPC makes the most sense.. I'm going with Tony's thoughts, which throw out the back-end thump idea of the NAM in favor of the GFS/EC blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hopefully...provided it's not an 18z "burp" that comes back at 0z or later. Any run can be a burp when it comes to the NAM. Granted, probably a bit more likely on the 6Z/18Z suites, but I've witnessed some colossal fails of the NAM out here in the last month. One day a couple weeks ago, the 12Z NAM spit out a ridiculous 1" of QPF in the following 24 hours... the 18Z NAM woke up and cut that down to a quarter inch. The 18Z was much better than the 12Z... it ended up being slightly less than a quarter inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 high was 52.8° today. even if we get any frozen pcpn it won't stick down here I have seen countless examples of where the idea frozen won't accumulate after a warm day gets totally destroyed. For example: I got lectures on Eastern back in October 2009 how central PA wasn't going to see any snow on the ground due it being in the 60s for much of the week prior. Six inches later.... That snow accumulated in the afternoon, too. It really depends on time of day/night, rates, and cloud thickness. You have to get it started. Once it does, previous day highs mean nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I have seen countless examples of where the idea frozen won't accumulate after a warm day gets totally destroyed. For example: I got lectures on Eastern back in October 2009 how central PA wasn't going to see any snow on the ground due it being in the 60s for much of the week prior. Six inches later.... That snow accumulated in the afternoon, too. It really depends on time of day/night, rates, and cloud thickness. You have to get it started. Once it does, previous day highs mean nothing. True. If it went to 1/4SM +SN, it could start to accumulate during midday. Tend to think that's unlikely in his area, though. Best shot is near and before dawn around TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm going with Tony's thoughts, which throw out the back-end thump idea of the NAM in favor of the GFS/EC blend. That is all fine and dandy As i do not believe i mentioned anything about the back end thump . My questioning was on how you said that the NAM was further north when the track was actually the same and the QPF field oriented and shifted differently..not so much the actual low position... I essentially would take a blend of all the guidance such as NAM/UK/GGEM/ECM/Nogaps since they are all quite similar and let the GFS alone out in the field to play...Perhaps it scores a home run...but i would not be counting on it... All 12 Z 42 hrs 18 Z Which one looks a little out of place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 True. If it went to 1/4SM +SN, it could start to accumulate during midday. Tend to think that's unlikely in his area, though. Best shot is near and before dawn around TTN. you also gotta think to, his location is over 1,000 ft, ttn is 50-100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 That is all fine and dandy As i do not believe i mentioned anything about the back end thump . My questioning was on how you said that the NAM was further north when the track was actually the same and the QPF field oriented and shifted differently..not so much the actual low position... That's what I was referring to. When I talk about weather here, I tend to focus on actual results that, you know, all the weenies care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 you also gotta think to, his location is over 1,000 ft, ttn is 50-100? I was thinking of Bensalem, not State College. But even in Bensalem it can accumulate at 1/4SM +SN during midday this time of year. April 2003 is a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I was thinking of Bensalem, not State College. But even in Bensalem it can accumulate at 1/4SM +SN during midday this time of year. April 2003 is a good example. Love the shout-out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hoping for an excuse to work from home tomorrow...Monday morning's 0530 am drive to Mt. Arlington was not fun. There were at least 2-3 inches of snow on the roads toward that area Monday and I think road crews in some spots were caught off guard. I also noticed today that the roads in my town were pre-treated today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Comparing the raw model guidance to the surface obs, temps were pretty close at 0Z, but dewpoints were noticeably too high. This will likely help push things a bit in the snow direction as evap cooling comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I was thinking of Bensalem, not State College. But even in Bensalem it can accumulate at 1/4SM +SN during midday this time of year. April 2003 is a good example. Love the shout-out! Heh, State College and Bensalem, AccuWeather office locations. The weirdest damn thing in that Oct snow Ray was it accumulating even on roads at midday and it was just moderate snow - someone at Eastern said it had to do with cloud thickness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Heh, State College and Bensalem, AccuWeather office locations. The weirdest damn thing in that Oct snow Ray was it accumulating even on roads at midday and it was just moderate snow - someone at Eastern said it had to do with cloud thickness? There's an AccuWX office in my humble little township? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 34.0°F as of now. DP is 28. Highest I saw this afternoon was 37.9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 There's an AccuWX office in my humble little township? Yeah... scary eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Heh, State College and Bensalem, AccuWeather office locations. The weirdest damn thing in that Oct snow Ray was it accumulating even on roads at midday and it was just moderate snow - someone at Eastern said it had to do with cloud thickness? That may be part of it. Lord knows the clouds here never seem thick enough... we were down to 1/4 yesterday midday and it barely stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 39F...expecting 1-3" of snow then afternoon rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Running slightly colder than the 12z and 18z NAM, emphasis on slightly. Forecasts 44.4/31.3 and 43.5/31.0 for 12z and 18z respectively for 03z. Currently 42.7°/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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