Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z NAM....is......umm...........a mess? I don't even know what to say about it. Elevations over 500' still looks snowy though. Hey man do you have the NAM output via a map? None of my sites are up yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hey man do you have the NAM output via a map? None of my sites are up yet... ummmmmm......like this? http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 ummmmmm......like this? http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false thanks man. Looks like a general 2-5" for our area. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Anywhere south of Allentown is going to need at least 300 feet in elevation to see much snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM is ridiculously far south compared to the GFS with the low by tomorrow night. I'd really like to see some semblance of support from the globals before I bite on the NAM's idea of a back-end event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well, the 12Z GFS for one insists that the NAM is completely on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12Z UK would be more in line with the NAM then the GFS.. Probably will continue to be the case of where the GFS is too far north.. NAM too far south With the end result in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12Z UK would be more in line with the NAM then the GFS.. Probably will continue to be the case of where the GFS is too far north.. NAM too far south With the end result in between Actually, at 36 the UKMET is further north than the GFS and NAM with the surface low. Its QPF field is definitely more in line with the GFS than the NAM at 48 hours. Haven't seen the 42 hour forecast yet... is there a site that has it available yet? I'm not too used to looking at the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Not surprised if all these potential snow threats the next 2 weeks end up being cold rains or near misses across SE PA. NE PA and NW Jersey with elevation, its a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 9Z SREF has 0.1-0.25" between 0Z and 6Z Wednesday eve for the whole area... but keeps temps above 35F from TTN on S and E thru 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Actually, at 36 the UKMET is further north than the GFS and NAM with the surface low. Its QPF field is definitely more in line with the GFS than the NAM at 48 hours. Haven't seen the 42 hour forecast yet... is there a site that has it available yet? I'm not too used to looking at the UKMET. Its actually on the same latitude essentially as the GFS at 36 hrs...however..the GFS is more progressive...(surprise?) The difference from what i can see between the two models.. Is the GFS continues to move the primary along and thru PA without any significant redevelopment .. Another view Where this allows the GFS to be warmer...it allows the UKMET to be colder then the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NE PA elevation 1600' around junction I-80 and I-81.. Still getting hit? Not surprised if all these potential snow threats the next 2 weeks end up being cold rains or near misses across SE PA. NE PA and NW Jersey with elevation, its a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 I will donate $10000 to the board if I end up getting 6.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 UKMET from PSU Ewall now available... shows 0.1-0.250.25-0.50 from 0-6Z Wednesday eve, but 850 is only slipping down to TTN at 6Z... TTN S its mainly rain it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Thru 36 hrs at KABE ECM has .63 QPF .. 850s below 0 Another .08 with surface around 32 and 850s at 0.4 Looks like .79 total with temps in the 33-35.6 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 UKMET from PSU Ewall now available... shows 0.1-0.25 from 0-6Z Wednesday eve, but 850 is only slipping down to TTN at 6Z... TTN S its mainly rain it would appear. You mean .25-.50 right ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Thru 36 hrs at KABE ECM has .63 QPF with temps at 33-34 degrees... 850s below 0 2C is 36F, FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 You mean .25-.50 right ray? Yeah... DOH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 EC is much drier than the NAM, much closer to the GFS after 0Z Wednesday eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 2C is 36F, FYI Thank you low to mid 30s then cause technically it is 35.6 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Thank you low to mid 30s then cause technically it is 35.6 ... Still rounds to 36 which is above the 34 you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 OK.... TTN call: Trace to a coating. Sub-archive event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM only one still showing that end thump as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Still rounds to 36 which is above the 34 you mentioned. And 35.6 is lower then 36 which you mentioned.. You are going to squabble over 1.6 degrees? ECM is actually wetter then the GFS for the KABE region as in total QPF ECM is actually colder then the GFS in the KABE region... So the ECM is certainly not in the GFS camp...its pretty much in the middle which is what i said earlier in the day... I will enjoy the wintery mix of snow/sleet with accumulations mainly on the grassy area How much rain you getting before potentially some snow in elko? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 ECM is actually wetter then the GFS for the KABE region as in total QPF By a whole 0.06" thru 12Z Thursday. We gonna squabble over 0.06" QPF? ECM is actually colder then the GFS in the KABE region... Not at the start, but yeah overall, it is about a degree C or so colder than the GFS. It does still raise 850's up above freezing at 6Z Thursday... barely, but still above. Most of the QPF has fallen by then of course. So the ECM is certainly not in the GFS camp...its pretty much in the middle which is what i said earlier in the day... I would say the EC is closer to the GFS than the NAM, given the lack of back-end thump. The NAM is the only model showing such a thump... with the UKMET coming closest to it. I will enjoy the wintery mix of snow/sleet with accumulations mainly on the grassy area How much rain you getting before potentially some snow in elko? Now you're just being cruel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 By a whole 0.06" thru 12Z Thursday. We gonna squabble over 0.06" QPF? Not at the start, but yeah overall, it is about a degree C or so colder than the GFS. It does still raise 850's up above freezing at 6Z Thursday... barely, but still above. Most of the QPF has fallen by then of course. I would say the EC is closer to the GFS than the NAM, given the lack of back-end thump. The NAM is the only model showing such a thump... with the UKMET coming closest to it. Now you're just being cruel... GFS text... WED 06Z 23-MAR 2.4 -1.2 1015 87 99 0.02 557 545 WED 12Z 23-MAR 1.1 -1.4 1012 97 72 0.13 555 547 WED 18Z 23-MAR 2.0 1.5 1006 99 99 0.27 553 548 THU 00Z 24-MAR 2.5 5.1 999 100 81 0.16 547 548 THU 06Z 24-MAR 3.3 3.8 994 100 52 0.07 539 544 THU 12Z 24-MAR -0.1 -1.2 998 97 72 0.01 534 536 THU 18Z 24-MAR 1.5 -6.2 1004 85 59 0.01 537 534 Total .67 total event ECM WED 06Z 23-MAR 4.5 -1.6 1014 62 98 0.01 557 545 WED 12Z 23-MAR 1.0 -2.6 1013 96 98 0.21 555 544 WED 18Z 23-MAR 2.0 -1.6 1007 93 100 0.12 553 547 THU 00Z 24-MAR 1.0 -0.1 1003 97 96 0.30 548 546 THU 06Z 24-MAR 0.6 0.4 998 97 48 0.08 540 542 THU 12Z 24-MAR 0.6 -2.5 998 95 56 0.03 534 536 THU 18Z 24-MAR 2.2 -6.7 1004 75 81 0.05 537 534 Total .80 total event So thats a difference of .13 ...thru 18 Z thursday.. Taking off the extra at 18 Z thursday from both models puts the following: GFS : .65 total ECM. .75 total Which makes a difference of .10 And the only reason I am replying to this post is because you seemed to have to correct for the difference of 1.6 degrees from what i originally mentioned... Either way you slice it or dice it ....the ECM is wetter then the GFS...and also colder then the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS text... WED 06Z 23-MAR 2.4 -1.2 1015 87 99 0.02 557 545 WED 12Z 23-MAR 1.1 -1.4 1012 97 72 0.13 555 547 WED 18Z 23-MAR 2.0 1.5 1006 99 99 0.27 553 548 THU 00Z 24-MAR 2.5 5.1 999 100 81 0.16 547 548 THU 06Z 24-MAR 3.3 3.8 994 100 52 0.07 539 544 THU 12Z 24-MAR -0.1 -1.2 998 97 72 0.01 534 536 THU 18Z 24-MAR 1.5 -6.2 1004 85 59 0.01 537 534 Total .67 total event ECM WED 06Z 23-MAR 4.5 -1.6 1014 62 98 0.01 557 545 WED 12Z 23-MAR 1.0 -2.6 1013 96 98 0.21 555 544 WED 18Z 23-MAR 2.0 -1.6 1007 93 100 0.12 553 547 THU 00Z 24-MAR 1.0 -0.1 1003 97 96 0.30 548 546 THU 06Z 24-MAR 0.6 0.4 998 97 48 0.08 540 542 THU 12Z 24-MAR 0.6 -2.5 998 95 56 0.03 534 536 THU 18Z 24-MAR 2.2 -6.7 1004 75 81 0.05 537 534 Total .80 total event So thats a difference of .13 ...thru 18 Z thursday.. Taking off the extra at 18 Z thursday from both models puts the following: GFS : .65 total ECM. .75 total Which makes a difference of .10 And the only reason I am replying to this post is because you seemed to have to correct for the difference of 1.6 degrees from what i originally mentioned... Either way you slice it or dice it ....the ECM is wetter then the GFS...and also colder then the GFS... I did say "thru 12Z Thursday". Because I think the fluff after that won't count, its during the day and its probably showery so you aren't getting much if any from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looks south of the track of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looks south of the track of the GFS oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.