mattinpa Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 If this was November, going into December the buzz would be bigger. Most of us in eastern PA are sick of winter weather, and would rather it not happen at all. Also the best potential snows are aimed north of the PA Turnpike, out of many posters backyards in this region. If, I lived in NE PA though, it would definetely have my attention more (whether I was pro-snow or no-snow), but where I'm at, after the warmth of last week.....I'd rather fast-forward through these next 2 weeks and hope for ridging over the Southeast to reestablish itself in early April. I think those of you in NE PA and north Jersey could have quite a snowy mess to deal with Wed-Thur. NAM looks like a few inches of snow for us, while the GFS just has it start as a little snow. There may be a compromise between the two? I think we get one more, possibly better chance, next week - and then it will finally be warmer to stay. I admit I liked the 80-degree day. I'm just never one to pass up snow, especially since Feb. was pretty snowless. I had a good break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1229 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 VALID MAR 21/1200 UTC THRU MAR 25/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM AND GFS EVALUATION... INITIALIZATION ERRORS...THE 12Z NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERFORECASTING WIND SPEEDS AT THE 500 MB LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN THE 12Z GFS. SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT... PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 1 OVER THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE THE 12Z NAM MAIN SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW DEPICTED BY MOST OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THE 06Z GFS HAS A DEEPER LOW THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT THE 00Z UKMET AND CMC AGREE WITH ITS POSITION. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TAKE UP MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE TWO LOW TRACKS. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SLOWER LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL SOLUTIONS. AT THE SURFACE THE 12Z GFS LOW POSITION HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST/PLAINS/NORTHEAST MID-WEEK... PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE THE 00Z UKMET AND CMC ARE BOTH NORTHERN SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF AND 12Z NAM ARE SIMILAR THROUGH F24 TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS POINT THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS NORTH EAST OF THE NAM...BECOMING ONE OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE 06Z GFS LANDS BETWEEN THESE TWO OPERATIONAL CAMPS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN THAT EXHIBITED BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE 12Z GFS HAS RETAINED CONTINUITY FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOULD RESULT IN REASONABLE LOW PLACEMENT AND DEPTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM looks like a few inches of snow for us, while the GFS just has it start as a little snow. There may be a compromise between the two? I think we get one more, possibly better chance, next week - and then it will finally be warmer to stay. I admit I liked the 80-degree day. I'm just never one to pass up snow, especially since Feb. was pretty snowless. I had a good break. I can't pass up snow either, after watching NJ east get nailed with the two big ones and getting 1-3" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The areas that may get snowfall, will have accumulation issues during the 9am and 7pm time frame. The solar radiation snow killer. Anyone know the timing of this potential event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM looks like a few inches of snow for us, while the GFS just has it start as a little snow. There may be a compromise between the two? I think we get one more, possibly better chance, next week - and then it will finally be warmer to stay. I admit I liked the 80-degree day. I'm just never one to pass up snow, especially since Feb. was pretty snowless. I had a good break. I hear ya, I think we could end up with a few slushy inches for sure.......its not the end of the world if it happens, deep down I'm a snow lover, but to put things in perspective, if this snow happens to fall overnight, unlike any other storm the past few months, I will not be staying up to watch it or take measurements. I'm passed that point. With that said, it could be interesting waking up Wed. morning in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM looks like a few inches of snow for us, while the GFS just has it start as a little snow. There may be a compromise between the two? I think we get one more, possibly better chance, next week - and then it will finally be warmer to stay. I admit I liked the 80-degree day. I'm just never one to pass up snow, especially since Feb. was pretty snowless. I had a good break. January pretty much was 600% of normal...it more than made up for February. The snowstarved are never happy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The areas that may get snowfall, will have accumulation issues during the 9am and 7pm time frame. The solar radiation snow killer. Anyone know the timing of this potential event? Best chance of snow (at least further south) is earlier than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 January pretty much was 600% of normal...it more than made up for February. The snowstarved are never happy though. Yeah I wish we just ended winter already... it sucked here. I'm probably gonna start working on the archive in a week or two to get a head start, so that it doesn't drag all the way through summer into fall like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The NAM says we cool off more on the back end than the front, with 2m temps at KPHL falling to 32.8 at 72 and the column completely cold. 0.29" would theoretically fall as SN. 2m temps drop to 32.2 at TTN, and are below 32.8 for the bulk of the precip (0.95") but with a warm layer changing everything over to IP at 60 and 66. Of course as HPC said the NAM is not performing too well right now, and really messed up this Morning (I was not expecting to drive into school in heavy sleet this AM). Maybe a little bit of icy stuff Wed morning, and a little bit more Wed night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Best chance of snow (at least further south) is earlier than that... And that would continue the trend of the past winter. With all the snow we got, very little fell in the daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The NAM says we cool off more on the back end than the front, with 2m temps at KPHL falling to 32.8 at 72 and the column completely cold. 0.29" would theoretically fall as SN. 2m temps drop to 32.2 at TTN, and are below 32.8 for the bulk of the precip (0.95") but with a warm layer changing everything over to IP at 60 and 66. Of course as HPC said the NAM is not performing too well right now, and really messed up this Morning (I was not expecting to drive into school in heavy sleet this AM). Maybe a little bit of icy stuff Wed morning, and a little bit more Wed night? I put a lot less stock into HPC discussions after what happened on 12/26. I would rather read Tony's analysis from PHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Looks like the 12 Z ECM would support a snow event in ABE area WED 12Z 23-MAR 0.6 -3.3 1014 85 98 0.13 555 544 WED 18Z 23-MAR 1.5 -2.8 1008 87 98 0.14 553 546 THU 00Z 24-MAR 0.7 -0.7 1004 96 83 0.14 548 544 THU 06Z 24-MAR 0.4 -1.2 1000 96 41 0.04 540 540 THU 12Z 24-MAR 0.1 -3.7 1002 93 70 0.03 536 535 Its somewhat light on the QPF compared to the rest of the guidance but the ECM was too light on the QPF for what just came thru overnight. ECM can have some what of a dry bias. It appears as though the GFS is the only model that is warmer and further north now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Can you run the AVP numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Can you run the AVP numbers? WED 12Z 23-MAR -1.0 -4.1 1014 79 97 0.11 553 542 WED 18Z 23-MAR 0.4 -4.2 1008 81 97 0.14 551 544 THU 00Z 24-MAR -0.7 -3.3 1005 94 81 0.17 546 542 THU 06Z 24-MAR -1.2 -3.7 1001 95 50 0.05 539 538 THU 12Z 24-MAR -1.8 -5.7 1003 91 78 0.04 535 533 THU 18Z 24-MAR 1.9 -7.4 1006 64 71 0.02 537 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Looks like the 12 Z ECM would support a snow event in ABE area WED 12Z 23-MAR 0.6 -3.3 1014 85 98 0.13 555 544 WED 18Z 23-MAR 1.5 -2.8 1008 87 98 0.14 553 546 THU 00Z 24-MAR 0.7 -0.7 1004 96 83 0.14 548 544 THU 06Z 24-MAR 0.4 -1.2 1000 96 41 0.04 540 540 THU 12Z 24-MAR 0.1 -3.7 1002 93 70 0.03 536 535 Its somewhat light on the QPF compared to the rest of the guidance but the ECM was too light on the QPF for what just came thru overnight. ECM can have some what of a dry bias. It appears as though the GFS is the only model that is warmer and further north now... do you have the 700mb soundings, thats the area of problem with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 do you have the 700mb soundings, thats the area of problem with this storm. 700 mb temp? Looks to be 0 to - 5 in that range from 48 thru 60 hrs and then gets colder after that... Further south slightly warmer at 54 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 700 mb temp? Looks to be 0 to - 5 in that range from 48 thru 60 hrs and then gets colder after that... Further south slightly warmer at 54 hrs... ok, cause i know on the nam, it warms the 700mb zone up faster than the 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z nam looks like a couple inches for philly on the front end then over to some sleet then rain...abe gets alittle more snow the then over to sleet for a good portion of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Is it true that there may be another winter storm for this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Is it true that there may be another winter storm for this weekend? ECM has a storm that skirts south but brings moderate QPF into PHL and southern PA..and it looks like it could be in the frozen form...GFS shows something as well at 12 Z ..they are pretty similar just GFS is more north with the QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 ECM has a storm that skirts south but brings moderate QPF into PHL and southern PA..and it looks like it could be in the frozen form...GFS shows something as well at 12 Z ..they are pretty similar just GFS is more north with the QPF Interesting..thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z nam looks like a couple inches for philly on the front end then over to some sleet then rain...abe gets alittle more snow the then over to sleet for a good portion of the event We might even change over to sleet here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 imho, the sunday storm has a much better shot at producing snow than tomorrows storm if its modeled correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 imho, the sunday storm has a much better shot at producing snow than tomorrows storm if its modeled correctly. the GFS, ECM and GGEM evolutions are actually strikingly similar for 6 days out. 12z GGEM extrapolated would probably be snowy for us In fact it's eerie how identical the 18z GFS is for the same hour: Feel free to add some pics from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Everyone asleep over here? Latest NAM is showing a major snowstorm for the Philly area on Wednesday and all I hear is...crickets. Surprising. Not saying the NAM is right, but the NYC thread is jumping, so surprised it's so quiet over here. Being in Central Jersey, I generally look at both metro area boards - going to be an interesting week or so coming up - just hope we can get in on some good snow before we really hit spring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Wow. Wasn't really expecting the 0Z NAM to come out colder... has a very decent spring snowfall for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Everyone asleep over here? Latest NAM is showing a major snowstorm for the Philly area on Wednesday and all I hear is...crickets. Surprising. Not saying the NAM is right, but the NYC thread is jumping, so surprised it's so quiet over here. Being in Central Jersey, I generally look at both metro area boards - going to be an interesting week or so coming up - just hope we can get in on some good snow before we really hit spring.... Very rough estimation of all snow PHL north (BUFKIT will reveal more): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 meh i dont see why the NAM cant be right, the precip gradient is a near duplicate of all the supressed snow events these last two winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I wonder how the other 0z models respond tonight. Per 0z NAM at KPHL, If we ignore sfc temps (not advised) then it's 0.41" SN, 0.55" IP, then 0.25" SN again. However, of that 0.55" IP, 0.45" falls in 3 hours with the max column temp of +0.3, so that could end up being more SN than IP if this were to verify. 2m temps don't go below freezing until hr 54 (technically 32.2) though, so not all of that would accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The RGEM will be in range tonight. I'm very curious to see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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